SRA 2013 Annual Meeting <strong>Abstracts</strong> T2-A.4 Anadon, LD*; Bosetti, V; Chan, G; Nemet, GF; Verdolini, E; Harvard University; laura_diaz_anadon@harvard.edu Energy technology expert elicitations: their use in models and what can we learn from workshops and metaanalysis Developing energy policies that are robust to a broad set of possible future conditions typically requires characterization of the anticipated per<strong>for</strong>mance of individual energy technologies. In particular, decisions about public investments in research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) aimed at promoting technological change in a range of energy technologies ideally require not only an explicit and robust consideration of the uncertainty inherent to innovation, but also a way of considering tradeoffs and making allocations across different technology areas. Over the past few years several groups on both sides of the Atlantic have developed expert elicitations and used energy-economic models to shed light on these questions. This presentation will draw on work from two of these groups and will be divided into four sections. First, we will discuss the lessons learned from the design and implementation of seven energy-technology expert elicitations of <strong>for</strong>ecasted technology cost and per<strong>for</strong>mance metrics, highlighting the need <strong>for</strong> (and difficulties associated with) matching elicitation design and modeling approach. Second, we will present insights drawn from an ef<strong>for</strong>t to use expert elicitations to optimize RD&D investment portfolios, including results on decreasing marginal returns to and optimal levels of overall RD&D investments, as well as of the importance of identifying policy scenarios and metrics <strong>for</strong> evaluation. Third, we will discuss the usefulness of devising online elicitation tools and of combining individual elicitations with group discussions to increase reliability and, in the long-run, reduce costs. And fourth, we will discuss the application of meta-analysis techniques to improve our understanding of the impact of expert selection on elicitation results and of the shape of the expected returns to RD&D. T5-C.2 ANDERSON, EL; Exponent; elanderson@exponent.com Creating a Field That Matters <strong>Risk</strong> analysis was widely used in the field of engineering be<strong>for</strong>e it was introduced as policy by the U S. Environmental Protection Agency in 1976 <strong>for</strong> carcinogen risk assessment. While health applications were obviously very different from those in engineering, there were and remain overlapping methods and approaches. The impact of the use of risk assessment in the health field was profound and wide spread; the regulation of exposure to suspect carcinogens was and remains controversial and comes under close scrutiny by the publics whose health public health agencies are required to protect. In short order, it became obvious that the public perception of risk was most often different from the science based assessed risk. How to create a field that matters from this disparate application of risk analysis <strong>for</strong>med the impetus <strong>for</strong> the founding of our Journal, <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Analysis</strong>: An International Journal. The Journal became the <strong>for</strong>um <strong>for</strong> sharing and merging interdisciplinary, scholarly research on topics in risk analysis to in<strong>for</strong>m the whole of risk analysis. While in the beginning there was only one Editor in Chief, by 1999, it had become obvious that at least three Area Editors were need <strong>for</strong> Engineering, Health and Social Sciences to adequately cover the submissions, proactively solicit interesting special collections of papers, and oversee peer review. As the leading international Journal on topics in risk analysis, there is little doubt that <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Analysis</strong>: An International Journal has played an important role in unifying and in<strong>for</strong>ming methods and applications in risk analysis. Exploring the creation of this field from the early days to the professional based foundations of today required imagination, determination, and interdisciplinary cooperation of many scholars. The success of the Journal is a model <strong>for</strong> creating a field that matters. M2-I.2 Andrijcic, E.*; Haimes, Y.Y.; Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology, University of Virginia; ea2r@virginia.edu Developing a multi-phase, iterative and collaborative decision coordination process <strong>for</strong> transportation infrastructure management The practice of persistent infrastructure underinvestment, coupled with a significant growth in commercial and non-commercial transportation demand, has left the U.S. transportation infrastructure unable to adequately support current and future needs. The lack of political will to allocate the needed funds to bridge infrastructure improvement stems, in part, from the disharmonious goals and objectives among the various stakeholders, and political and other decision makers, as well as the lack of appreciation of the critical interdependencies among the myriad sub-systems of the bridge infrastructure. To address this challenge, we present a multi-phase, iterative and collaborative decision coordination process that is based on the theory of intrinsic meta-modeling via shared state variables. The developed approach enables the harmonization of multiple models representing varied sub-systems and stakeholders’ perspectives. The approach provides decision makers with the ability to better visualize and collaboratively coordinate their shared and conflicting interests with the purpose of achieving public policy solutions <strong>for</strong> transportation infrastructure that are satisficing to all involved stakeholders, and sustainable over a long planning horizon. We present an illustrative example in which we utilize the meta-modeling coordination to explore the engineering, social, economic, and political implications of insufficient bridge maintenance. We focus on the evolving nature of objectives, interest groups, organizational, political and budgetary baselines, and requirements associated with varied stakeholders, and show that the meta-modeling coordination process enables all stakeholders and decision makers to plan <strong>for</strong> future emergent changes through collaborative and <strong>for</strong>esighted ef<strong>for</strong>ts. Additionally, we illustrate how the developed process could be utilized to more equally distribute risk ownership among all involved stakeholders. W3-C.1 Antoniou, G; Gebrayel, A; Mhanna, P; Sarri, M; Stylianou, K; Kouis, P*; Cyprus International Institute, Cyrus University of Technology; pankouis@yahoo.gr A Preliminary Characterization of Public Health <strong>Risk</strong>s from Industrial Operations in Jubail This paper characterizes the health risks due to the emissions of the industrial complex at Jubail, S. Arabia, one of the largest in Middle East. Students at the Cyprus International Institute conducted a probabilistic risk assessment using publically-available data on the nature and production capacity of representative facilities – i.e., a refinery, steel plant, fertilizer manufacturer, plastics facility, and methanol plant. A preliminary risk assessment was conducted, using the LCA software Simapro®, to determine typical emissions and the contributions of various pollutants. It indicated that PM2.5, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides dominated mortality impacts. For these pollutants a comprehensive risk assessment, reflecting Jubail conditions, was developed using Analytica®. This coupled emissions from Simapro®, with intake fractions <strong>for</strong> PM and its precursors adapted from Wolff (2000). It used the probabilistic PM exposure-response coefficients from six European epidemiologists developed by Tuomisto (2008). Mortality was valued using US VSL estimates of Viscusi and Aldy (2003) adapted to the region using benefits transfer with income elasticity between 0.4 and 0.6. Uncertainty was analyzed with 10 runs, of 5,000 iterations each, and Latin Hypercube sampling. The analysis suggests that about 200 deaths/yr are attributable to industrial emissions from Jubail. Only a small fraction of these occur among the residents of Jubail. The power plant and refinery are responsible <strong>for</strong> the most of these. Secondary sulfate is the dominant source of health impacts. Potential benefits of pollution control are large (nearly 1 billion US$/year), however most of these benefits accrue to populations outside Saudi Arabia. Since the analysis relies on publically available data, results are somewhat tentative but could easily be refined if these generic characterizations of industrial processes and emissions were replaced with in<strong>for</strong>mation site-specific processes and emissions. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting <strong>Abstracts</strong> T2-D.4 Anyamba, A*; Small, J; Oryang, D; Fanaselle , W; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; assaf.anyamba@nasa.gov Monitoring and Mapping Conditions Associated with Enteric Pathogens using Rainfall and Satellite Vegetation Index Data Food borne outbreaks associated with fresh produce are increasing in the United States and around the world. The increase in the proportion of food borne outbreaks linked to fresh produce from the 1970s (
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