Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts
W2-E.2 Toccalino, PL*; Gilliom, RJ; Lindsey, BD; Rupert, MG;
U.S. Geological Survey; ptocca@usgs.gov
Pesticides in groundwater of the United States:
Occurrence and decadal-scale changes
This study by the U.S. Geological Survey’s National
Water-Quality Assessment Program evaluated (1) the
occurrence of pesticides in groundwater and (2) decadal-scale
changes in pesticide concentrations over a 20-year period.
Untreated groundwater samples were collected from 1,309
wells located in 60 nationally distributed well networks and
analyzed for as many as 83 pesticide compounds. Each well
network was sampled once during 1993–2001 (Cycle 1) and
once during 2002–2011 (Cycle 2). Shallow (mostly monitoring)
wells were sampled in agricultural and urban areas. Deeper
(mostly domestic and public) wells, which tap major aquifers
used for water supply, were sampled in mixed land-use areas.
Pesticides were frequently detected—about two-thirds of the
samples from agricultural areas and about half of the samples
from urban areas contained one or more pesticides. More than
one-third of samples from major aquifers contained one or more
pesticides, but concentrations seldom (about 1% of samples)
exceeded human-health benchmarks. The five most frequently
detected pesticide compounds—atrazine, deethylatrazine,
simazine, metolachlor, and prometon—each were detected in
9% to 36% of all samples, and each had statistically significant
changes in concentrations between Cycle 1 and Cycle 2 in one
or more land uses. For all agricultural land-use networks
combined, concentrations of atrazine, metolachlor, and
prometon decreased from Cycle 1 to Cycle 2; prometon
concentrations also decreased in urban areas. Conversely, for
all major aquifers combined, concentrations of atrazine,
deethylatrazine, and simazine increased; deethylatrazine
concentrations also increased in urban areas. The magnitude of
these concentration changes from decade to decade was small,
and ranged from 0.001 to 0.09 µg/L (35- to 230,000-fold less
than benchmarks). More than half of the individual well
networks showed statistically significant changes in one or
more pesticide concentrations between Cycles 1 and 2.
P.13 Tokai, A*; Nakazawa, K; Nakakubo, T; Yamaguchi, H;
Kojima, N; Sakagami, M; Higuchi, Y; Nagata, Y; Ishimaru, T;
Osaka University; tokai@see.eng.osaka-u.ac.jp
Development of practical risk evaluation method with the
example of traffic relevant environmental measures
Under the multiple risk situations in our daily life, to
understand the actual risk condition goes underground the
revealed risk is necessary. To grasp it, we examined the method
that make up the result of traditional health risk assessment.
For this purpose, we identified three objectives in this research
project. The first one is to develop risk durability evaluation
method and the second one is to apply this method to actual
environmental measures especially we examined the
transportation related technologies. The third one is to examine
the possibility of voluntary action for risk reduction by citizens
through questionnaire survey to residents in Osaka prefecture.
Main findings were followings. Regarding first task, we
developed risk durability evaluation method based on the
concept of value of information and trade-off analysis with the
example of flame retardant to plastics with the software
Analytica. This software enables us to build user friendly model
that support to obtain the insight of risk stems from this
chemical through graphical user interface. To analyze the
uncertainty included in the process of risk assessment of flame
retardant, we estimated value of information of specific
parameter required for risk estimation. As to the second task,
we carried out the risk analysis and lifecycle analysis for three
types of environmental measures for automobile industry, they
are material substitutions, fuel substitutions and products
replacement. We clarified the risk trade-offs for these three
types of measures and evaluated relative superiority from the
viewpoint of health risk and greenhouse gas emission.
Regarding third task, results of 232 valid respondents who
were aged 20 or over and lived in Osaka prefecture were
obtained.
W2-K.2 Tonn, GL*; Guikema, SD; Johns Hopkins University;
gtonn2@jhu.edu
Power outage analysis for Hurricane Isaac
In August 2012, Hurricane Isaac, a Category 2 hurricane,
caused extensive power outages in Louisiana. The storm
brought high winds, storm surge and flooding to Louisiana, and
power outages were extensive and prolonged. Hourly power
outage data for the state of Louisiana was collected during the
storm and analyzed. This analysis included correlation of hourly
power outage figures by zip code with wind, rainfall, and storm
surge. Results were analyzed to understand how drivers for
power outages differed geographically within the state.
Hurricane Isaac differed from many hurricanes due to the
significant storm surge and flooding. This analysis provided
insight on how rainfall and storm surge, along with wind,
contribute to risk of power outages in hurricanes. The results of
this analysis can be used to better understand hurricane power
outage risk and better prepare for future storms. It will also be
used to improve the accuracy and robustness of a power outage
forecasting model developed at Johns Hopkins University.
W4-F.3 Tonn, BE*; Stiefel, D; Feldman, D; University of
Tennessee-Knoxville; dori@utk.edu
Past the threshold for existential risks: Balancing
existential risk uncertainty and governance
Concerns about the potential extinction of the human race are
growing. This paper addresses those concerns, and builds on
previous research in that area, by presenting research into the
conditions under which society ought to implement actions to
reduce existential risk. This paper answers the question, “How
do types of governance help or hinder society’s response to
existential risks?” Specifically, this paper explores the balance
between uncertainty; actions to reduce existential risk;
philosophical perspectives about existential risk; and types of
governance, with special attention for the role of complex
adaptive systems. This paper presents two Frameworks for
addressing those concerns. The first framework, the
Framework for Implementing Actions to Reduce Existential
Risk, answers the question, “Under what conditions ought
society implement actions to reduce existential risk?” The
second framework, the Framework for Governance Responses
to Reduce Existential Risk, is based on types of governance and
extends the first framework from the perspectives of fragile,
rigid, robust, and flexible governance structures with special
attention for the role of complex adaptive systems. Specifically,
the second framework provides the foundational perspectives
from which to identify the ways in which society’s actions might
be helped or hindered by actual or perceived complications of
governance. Support for different categories of actions to
reduce existential risk are different across these governance
types, as are the rates at which they help or hinder the societal
response. The paper concludes with an assessment of the
overall challenges and opportunities revealed by these
frameworks. The paper also provides recommendations for
reducing existential risk given governance types and the role of
complex adaptive systems.
December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD