Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts
T3-D.4 Fanaselle, WL*; Hoelzer, K; FDA, CFSAN;
Wendy.Fanaselle@fda.hhs,gov
Reducing the potential for norovirus foodborne illness
through surface disinfection
Norovirus (NoV) infections are the leading cause of foodborne
illness outbreaks worldwide. Disinfection of environmental
surfaces is of paramount importance to prevent, contain or
control outbreaks, but continues to present considerable
practical challenges. Environmental disinfection of this virus is
particularly challenging because of the extremely high numbers
of virus potentially shed in human stool and vomitus, together
with the low infectious dose and high stability in the
environment. A systematic evaluation was conducted of the
available data on NoV disinfection from surfaces, focusing in
particular on what is and is not currently known about the
biological, epidemiological and mechanistic determinants of
disinfection efficacy. In addition, we evaluated the potential
usefulness and limitations of disinfection protocols in outbreak
situations, with particular focus on outbreaks in food
preparation and service establishments. In this presentation,
we will present the results of this data comparison and explain
how this data can be used in future risk assessments on NoV.
T2-A.2 Fann, NL; Walker, KW; Gilmore, EA*; U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency; fann.neal@epa.gov
Characterizing the long-term PM2.5 concentration
response function: a comparison of estimates from expert
judgment, meta-analysis, and integrated research
estimates
Regulatory impact assessments (RIAs) for rules that affect fine
particle levels (PM2.5) levels routinely estimate monetized
benefits in the tens or hundreds of billions of dollars,
attributable largely to the reductions in the risk of premature
death. The quantitative relationship between changes in
exposure to PM2.5 and the risk of death (i.e. the
concentration-response function), and associated assumptions
about the likelihood that such a relationship is causal, are key
inputs to these analyses. Given the magnitude of monetized
benefits associated with reductions of PM2.5, policy-makers
have expressed interest in better characterizing of the
magnitude, functional form and the uncertainties in this
concentration response (C-R) relationship. To meet the demand
for this information, researchers have applied a range of
alternative research synthesis approaches, including
meta-analysis, expert judgment and integrated research
estimates, to essentially the same policy question. For example,
in 2004, the USEPA undertook an Expert Elicitation in an
attempt to capture a fuller range of uncertainties associated
with the C-R relationship. More recently, under the Global
Burden of Disease project, a collaborative scientific effort has
developed an integrated C-R function, with associated
uncertainty that would span the full range of global ambient PM
concentrations. In this respect, the PM2.5 mortality
relationship is a unique test-bed that allows us to compare
across approaches to synthesizing data to inform critical policy
questions. In this talk, I first review these approaches as
applied to the PM2.5 C-R function and evaluate how these
techniques provide different types of information for the
analysis of US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA)
rulemaking. Second, I draw broader lessons to evaluate the
factors that may make particular approaches more or less
suited to informing policy decisions.
M4-J.3 Fann, NF; Fulcher, CM; Baker, KR; Roman, HA*;
Gentile, MA; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Industrial
Economics Incorporated; fann.neal@epa.gov
Characterizing the Distribution of Recent and Projected
Air Pollution Risk Among Vulnerable and Susceptible
Individuals
Recent studies have characterized well the recent and
projected total health burden of air pollution at the national
scale. The literature has also explored the distribution of air
pollution risks, and the level of risk inequality, among and
between susceptible and vulnerable populations at the urban
scale. This presentation will build upon this literature by
demonstrating how source apportionment techniques can be
used jointly with inequality coefficients to: attribute the
nationwide level and distribution of total air pollution risks
across vulnerable and susceptible populations in 2005 and 2016
to 7 emission sectors; and, characterize the change in the level
of risk inequality among these populations over time. We define
population vulnerability and susceptibility using characteristics
identified elsewhere in the literature; these include baseline
health status, socioeconomic status and other attributes that
are empirically linked to air pollution-related risk. We calculate
inequality coefficients including the Atkinson index. Our results
suggest that reduced emissions among certain sectors between
2005 and 2016, including Electricity Generating Units and
mobile sources, have significantly reduced the air pollution
health burden among susceptible and vulnerable populations.
P.47 Farber, GS; US EPA; farber.glenn@epa.gov
Design of Institutional Mechanisms for Effective Risk
Management: Assignment of Responsibility in the Case of
Waste Disposal
Policy schemes for disposal of hazardous materials are
designed to facilitate risk reduction by reducing exposure to
toxic and radioactive hazards. Why do some policy schemes for
disposal of hazardous materials work effectively, while others
function poorly and fail to mitigate those risks? A great deal of
attention is paid to engineering design of waste management
units and structures, but insufficient attention is given to the
institutional mechanisms and incentives in designing policies.
This paper examines the role of several of these mechanisms in
obtaining effective risk management outcomes, focusing on the
schemes for assigning responsibility for waste disposal.
December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD