Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts T4-G.3 Kuttschreuter, M.*; Hilverda, M.D.; Pieniak, Z.; Department Psychology of Conflict, Risk and Safety, University of Twente; margot.kuttschreuter@utwente.nl Actively seeking versus taking notice of risk information: the case of food risks Food safety incidents in the Western world still take lives. Examples are the contamination of cantaloupes with Listeria in the US and that of fenugreek seeds with the EHEC-bacterium in Europe. Such incidents typically lead to anxiety among consumers, a need for additional information and potentially information seeking behaviour. How these processes function precisely, is yet unknown. This presentation focuses on the applicability of the Risk Information Seeking and Processing (RISP) model to food risks, and on the channels that consumers use to find relevant information. Building on prior research, the RISP-model was refined and a distinction was made between two modes of information seeking: taking notice of information that one encounters accidentally versus actively taking steps to search and find additional information. Data were gathered through a cross-sectional survey that was carried out in 8 different European countries as part of the FoodRisC-project (n= 6400). This survey focused on the responses to the risks of fresh vegetables. Participants were questioned regarding their information seeking behaviour and a number of potential determinants such as risk perception and trust in the safety of food products. Their use of information channels such as traditional mass media, internet resources and social media was also measured. Television and search engines as Google were found to be the channels most often used to learn more about the risks involved. Taking notice of risk information and actively taking steps to learn more were indeed distinct forms of information seeking behaviour (r = .61). Regression analysis showed that there were differences as well as similarities in the determinants of both modes of information seeking. Structural equation modelling has been applied to test a model, describing the determinants of both modes of information seeking, using AMOS. Results will be presented and the consequences for risk communication will be discussed. W4-F.1 Kuzma, J; NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY; jenniferkuzma0@gmail.com Global Risk Governance for Genome Editing Recently the field of biotechnology has been revolutionized with the introduction of promising new technologies, which can be collectively called “targeted genetic modification techniques” (TagMo). Unlike traditional genetic engineering technologies, which introduced changes in genomes randomly, these new methods allow scientists to modify DNA sequences at precise locations. These new technologies are revolutionizing biotechnology by making the engineering process for plants, animals, mammals, and bacteria faster and allowing multiple site-directed modifications to organisms in a short period of time. These TagMo methods have collectively been referred to as “genome-scale engineering”, “genome editing,” or “genomic rewriting.” They represent a transition between old recombinant DNA (rDNA) genetic engineering and synthetic biology. In turn, they present significant governance challenges, including ambiguity in what the potential risk analysis issues are and whether existing regulatory definitions and systems can accommodate the rapid changes in these technologies. In this paper, first the landscape of the genome editing field will be explored by using "tech mining" techniques based on bibliometric analysis of a key set of articles from the Web of Science. This analysis will help to lay the groundwork for discussions of particular sub-fields of TagMo and associated risk assessment issues including gene flow, gene stability & migration, and their off-target impacts. A subset of the literature on the stability and specificity of genomic insertions, deletions, or edits using TagMo will be reviewed. Then, select models for risk analysis of the first generation of products of genetic modification will be evaluated for their appropriateness for emerging products of TagMo based on findings from an expert-stakeholder interview process, workshop, and existing literature. Finally, the state of risk governance for genome editing in three key regions of development—the U.S., EU, and Japan—will be examined in a comparative policy analysis approach. T1-A.8 Lachlan, KA*; Spence, PR; Lin, X; University of Massachusetts Boston (Lachlan), University of Kentucky (Spence & Lin); ken.lachlan@umb.edu Getting Information to Underserved Communities using Twitter: Lessons from Hurricane Sandy With its capability for real time updating and reports from the scenes of accidents and disasters, Twitter has emerged as a medium that may be especially useful for emergency managers communicating the risks associated with impending events. Yet, little is known about the ways in which Twitter is being utilized during widespread disasters, or the ways in which government agencies are using Twitter in reaching at risk populations. Given past research suggesting that members of underserved communities may be especially at risk during crisis and natural disasters, this is especially problematic. The current study involves an automated content analysis of over 20,000 tweets collected in the days leading up to the landfall of Hurricane Sandy, and a human coder subsample of 1785 tweets that were evaluated in greater depth. Tweets containing the hashtag #sandy were examined, since this was the official hashtag used by the National Weather Service in their communication efforts. Tweets were collected in four hour intervals over the course of four days. The results indicate that in the days leading up to landfall, risk information became less prevalent and expressions of negative affect became more common. Tweets from relief agencies and emergency managers were all but absent in the sea of information. Tweets in languages other than English were largely absent during the developing stages of the crisis, and very few of these contained actionable information. The results are discussed in terms of best practices for emergency managers in conveying risk information to historically underserved communities. T1-D.3 Lambertini, E*; Buchanan, RL; Narrod, C; Pradhan, AK; University of Maryland, Joint Institute for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition; elilam@umd.edu Zoonotic diseases from companion animals: risk of salmonellosis associated with pet food Recent Salmonella outbreaks associated with dry pet food highlight the importance of these foods as vehicles for zoonotic pathogens. The need to characterize the risk profile of this class of products is currently not supported by data. Moreover, the relative impact of industry practices and household behavior in mitigating risk is unknown. This study aims to: 1) model the microbial ecology of Salmonella in the dry pet food production chain, 2) estimate pet and human exposure to Salmonella through pet food, and 3) assess the impact of mitigation strategies on human illness risk. Data on Salmonella contamination levels in pet food ingredients, production parameters, bacterial ecology on food and surfaces, and transfer by contact were obtained through a systematic literature review and from industry data. A probabilistic quantitative microbial risk assessment model was developed to estimate exposure of pets and their owners to Salmonella in pet food, and the associated illness risk. Model outcomes highlight that human illness risk due to handling pet food is minimal if contamination occurs before the heated extrusion step (10-15 CFU/Kg of food at the point of exposure, even with initial 1015 CFU/Kg in the protein meal ingredient). Risk increases significantly if contamination occurs in coating fat, with mean probability of illness per exposure Pill 1/1000 at mean Salmonella levels of 107 CFU/Kg fat. In this case, an additional post-coating 3-Log CFU reduction is needed to limit Pill to 10-6 (mean of 0.03 CFU/Kg in finished product). Recontamination after extrusion and coating, e.g. via dust or condensate, can lead to even higher risk (Pill 1/100 with mean Salmonella levels of 0.4 CFU/Kg in intermediate product). In this scenario, hand washing after handling food would reduce the Pill only by 30%. The developed risk model provides a tool to estimate health impacts under a range of production and household handling scenarios. Model results provide a basis for improvements in production processes, risk communication to consumers, and regulatory action. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts T3-E.3 Lander, DR; Heard, NE; Dellarco, M*; DuPont, Syngenta, NIH; dellarcom@mail.nih.gov Product Stewardship for a New Product: RISK 21 Tiered Exposure Framework in Practice This presentation demonstrates how the RISK21 tiered exposure framework can be applied for product stewardship or regulatory compliance through a hypothetical case study. RISK21 uses a tiered framework for refining the exposure and hazard estimate independently based on which will have the biggest reduction in uncertainty. The hypothetical problem formulation for this case study was: your company is developing a mosquito bed netting containing a pyrethroid to prevent transmission of West Nile Virus for use at children outdoor summer camps in the United States. The company has product stewardship requirements to verify there is no unwarranted risk to workers making the product and consumers using the product. The marketing department is ready to sell the product but is waiting for the completed risk assessment. As the RISK21 framework is applied, the decisions made by the risk assessor are discussed. The Tier 0 approach used the worker and consumer banding methods as well as the Environmental Background Database approach. The Tier 0 risk assessment matrix indicated further refinement was needed in both exposure and toxicity estimates. For a deterministic Tier 1 exposure assessment more information on the use was needed. The World Health Organization’s 2004 document “A Generic Risk Assessment Model for Insecticide Treatment and Subsequent Use of Mosquito Nets” was used to inform on the mosquito net use. With further exposure refining inside Tier 1, a risk assessment matrix was developed showing minimal risk from use. If confidence was not high enough, Tier 2 could be used to ascertain the probabilities of the risk to further inform. Finally, since deltamethrin is an insecticide used for other uses there could be concern for cumulative exposures. Tier 3 looked at NHANES biomonitoring data to compare current human pyrethroid background exposure to the new use to verify no concern from cumulative uses. T2-J.2 Landis, WG*; Johns, A; Western Washington University; wayne.landis@wwu.edu Analysis of the exposure-effects relationships from concentration-response curves for ecological risk assessment Recently there has been an intense discussion regarding the proper analysis tools for the description of the exposure-response relationship for environmental risk assessment. We have developed an alternative analysis that relies on curve fitting but that generates a distribution around a selected ECx value where x is the boundary of the unacceptable effect size. We have explored a variety of exposure-response datasets from two laboratories and with a diverse group of chemicals. The DRC package in the R programming environment was used to calculate the regression and the 95 percent confidence intervals. At concentrations at and surrounding what would be estimated as a 20 percent effect a distribution was derived to capture the likelihood of different levels of effects. A triangle distribution was created via Monte Carlo technique with the mode the point corresponding the estimated exposure-response and the upper and lower limits corresponding to the range of the confidence interval. Analysis of a variety of exposure-response curves illustrated the importance of the slope of the curve and the breadth of the confidence interval. For example, the concentrations of parathion corresponding to an EC20 value for immobilization of Daphnia magna was bounded by effects levels from 8 to 42 percent. The description of the EC value becomes a distribution bounded by the upper and lower bounds of the effect axis, the upper and lower bounds along the concentration axis and the likelihood of each exposure and effect combination. This kind of probabilistic information is not available from point estimations from conventional hypothesis testing or reliance on the determination of a point ECx. We present several examples to demonstrate the critical nature of having the exposure-response curve, its confidence bounds and the exposure-effects distribution in estimating risk. T1-H.4 Lathrop, JF; Innovative Decisions, Inc.; jlathrop@innovativedecisions.com Applying Concepts of Quality of Position to Terrorism Risk Management Last year at this conference, I presented the concept of Quality of Position as a decision guiding metric for terrorism risk management. The underlying logic is that Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a powerful tool for organizing and processing attack-scenario information for terrorism risk assessment, but it is intrinsically limited to assessing risks that can be characterized by anticipated scenarios. The problem is that in terrorism risk management, an important part of the risk space is comprised of unanticipated scenarios, i.e., “Black Swans,” especially since some terrorists (“Reds”) are smart enough to deliberately design attacks “not on Blue’s list” (that would appear, to Blue, as Black Swans), and so not addressed well (if at all) by PRA. So last year I suggested the concept of “Quality of Position” (QOP), a multiattribute utility (MAU) metric capturing how well Blue is positioned in the “game” against Red, with attributes including a PRA metric and also broader concepts of resilience, leverage, deterrence and disincentivization. The concept of QOP is lifted from guidance for chess players, who are faced with a similar (but importantly different) problem of playing a game where it is beyond their capability to predict how all possible futures may unfold. This paper takes those concepts and fleshes them out with actual MAU attribute scales, and mathematical demonstrations of how a QOP metric can advise terrorism risk management in ways superior to PRA alone. Developing QOP concepts brings along with it the development of broader concepts of how analysis can guide terrorism risk management. The most important of those is to lift the role of analysis from guiding essentially tactical decisions, such as allocating detectors among target cities, to more strategic decisions, i.e., to playing the game at a more strategic level than simply defending a large number of (but not all) targets. The paper will conclude with recommendations for implementation. M3-A.1 Lathrop, JF; Innovative Decisions, Inc.; jlathrop@innovativedecisions.com Applying terrorism risk management concepts to enhance ISO 31000 risk management We take big steps when we step from widely accepted risk management, such as specified in ISO 31000, to broader risk management concepts informed by other fields. This talk will briefly synthesize risk management concepts from terrorism risk management, and other new thinking, with the classic risk management concepts specified in ISO 31000. We have learned from our work in terrorism risk assessment/management that in many arenas we need to orient our thinking around managing risk that specifically addresses unanticipated scenarios. Risk management can be improved by taking advantage of three key concepts we’ve developed in our terrorism risk management work: robustness, resilience and quality of position. Then we examine new concepts provided to us from Nassim “Black Swan” Taleb in the latest book he has inflicted upon us, Antifragile, and develop concepts informed by combining his latest work with our terrorism work. This paper will combine concepts from both of those areas into recommendations for an additional set of principles of risk management, to be added to the considerable set of principles, already widely accepted, in ISO 31000. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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