Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

More documents

Recommendations

Info

SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts M2-C.2 Li, N; Brossard, D*; Scheufele, D. A.; University of Wisconsin-Madison; dbrossard@wisc.edu What do government and non-profit stakeholders want to know about nuclear fuel cycle? A semantic network analysis approach Effective risk analysis is critical to improving policy decisions on complex technologies with a potential for catastrophic consequences. To accurately assess technological risks, it becomes increasingly important for policymakers to incorporate stakeholder beliefs into the policymaking process. Current debates on the merits and drawbacks of different nuclear fuel cycle scenarios in the U.S. and abroad present a challenge to integrate various concerns of stakeholders with distinct interests. In this study, we adopted a semantic web analysis approach to analyze the different sets of beliefs held by government and non-profit stakeholders about the risks associated with different aspects of nuclear fuel cycle. In particular, we conducted in-depth cognitive interviews with six stakeholders working for federal government and six working for non-profit organizations. Participants were asked to freely talk about the key issues related to nuclear fuel cycle (e.g., economics, safety, resources recycle, and non-proliferation). An artificial neutral network program CATPAC II was used to analyze the 42 pages transcripts of the twelve one-hour-long interviews. Results showed that the major concerns of government stakeholders significantly differ from those of non-profit stakeholders. While government stakeholders had salient concerns about the security of transporting nuclear materials and the implication of nuclear fuel cycle at the state level, non-profit stakeholders did not assign priority to these issues. Moreover, although both groups highlighted the importance of the back-end of nuclear fuel cycle, government stakeholders focused on the feasibility of recycling nuclear material, whereas non-profit stakeholders emphasized the challenges presented by reprocessing. These differences are illuminated through the use of a hierarchical cluster analysis of 47 unique concepts for each group of stakeholders and a visual representation of the associated mental concepts. Implications for risk analysis and policymaking related to the nuclear fuel cycle are discussed. P.26 Lin, MH*; Ho, WC; Caffrey, JL; FAN, KC; WU, TT; CHEN, PC; LIN, CC; WU, TN; SUNG, FC; LIN, RS; China Medical University; whocmu@gmail.com Ambient air pollution and Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) among children Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is the most commonly diagnosed neurobehavioral disorder of childhood. Animal studies suggest that traffic-related air pollution may have adverse neurologic effects, but studies of neurobehavioral effects in children are still in need. The purpose of this study is to assess the potential adverse health effects of air pollution during maternal pregnancy related to childhood ADHD. There are two databases used in this study: 1) Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2005 (LHID2005) and 2) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) air monitoring database. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) will be used in estimating air pollution exposure. Furthermore, Cox proportional hazard regression models will be used in adjusting sex, geographic area, urbanization level, household Environmental Tobacco Smoking (ETS) exposure and lead concentrations in air. All statistical analyses will be performed with the SAS version 9.2 (SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA). A p-value of less than 0.05 is set to declare statistical significance. The results showed that air pollution could be related to childhood ADHD, especially traffic-related air pollution. Air-pollutant trimester-specific effect was found. Further research is suggested. P.29 Lin, YS*; Caffrey, JL; Ho, WC; Bayliss, D; Sonawane, B; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Lin.Yu-Sheng@epa.gov The Role of Dietary Zinc in Cadmium Nephrotoxicity Background: Animal studies have shown that cadmium (Cd) and zinc (Zn) are associated with increased and decreased renal risk, respectively. Goal: To examine the joint effect of Cd exposure and Zn intake on renal risk. Methods: The data were obtained from 5,205 adults aged 50 years and older from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III, 1988-94). Results: Logged urinary Cd is positively associated with albuminuria (odds ratio=1.29; p=0.01). Despite an apparent protective effect of Zn intake, the finding is not significant. However when considered jointly with Cd, there was a significant inverse association between albuminuria and the Zn-to-urinary Cd ratio (p
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts M3-F.4 Lin, L; Lund University; lexin.lin@lucram.lu.se Mapping the municipal risk information flow: A study based on the practice of risk and vulnerability analysis in Lund, Sweden Many risks that societies face today are “systemic”.These risks require a holistic approach,a coordinated effort from stakeholders that cut across functional sectors and geographical boundaries to foresee,prepare for and respond to them.Effective risk communication is always considered to be a core essential to successfully dealing with adverse events.This is even more critical when stakeholders from different levels and various disciplines are involved in the assessment and management of risks.Whether risk information is being effectively communicated among those stakeholders will affect risk assessment results and management decisions,thus influencing the ultimate performance of risk governance.In Sweden, all municipalities are obligated by law to conduct risk and vulnerability analysis(RVA),to ensure decision makers are aware of risk and vulnerability,and to help them make appropriate decisions.Conducting RVA and incorporating it into practice are largely based on exchanging and disseminating information about risks among authorities and organizations who work together in assessing and governing risks.This paper focuses on the risk communication among actors throughout municipal risk-governance chain.By using the Swedish municipality Lund as a case,the author explores the question of how are issues concerning risk communicated among municipal departments and their external service providers.A risk governance perspective was used to analyze the empirical data from 18 semi-structured interviews with all Lund’s municipal departments, as well as with representatives of other coordinating external service providers:water company,electricity company,fire service company and the police.Specific attention was directed to potential barriers to information sharing.This study is especially relevant for actors from all areas of society to reflect on their practices of risk communication, thus improving their performance of risk assessment and the quality of decision making. P.31 LIN, YS*; GINSBERG, G; SONAWANE, B; US EPA; Lin.yu-Sheng@Epa.gov The Relationship of Mercury Exposure, Omega-3 Intake, and Risk of Chronic Kidney Disease Background: It remains unclear whether environmental exposure to mercury (Hg) is associated with increased renal risk, and whether omega-3 fatty acid (FA) intake could affect Hg nephrotoxicity. Goal: To examine the relation of chronic kidney disease (CKD) to blood Hg and omega-3 FAs. Methods: The data were obtained from 1,046 adults aged 40 yrs or older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003-4. Results: The adjusted odds ratio for increased CKD risk in the highest tertile of blood Hg compared with the lowest was 2.96 (95% confidence interval= 1.05-8.39). Despite the role of omega-3 FAs in modulating Hg nephrotoxicity, there was only a marginal association between omega-3 FAs. Discussion: Hg exposure is associated with CKD risk and additional studies are needed to assess the role of omega-3 FAs and the sources, exposure routes, and forms of Hg responsible for Hg nephrotoxicity. T1-G.3 Linkov, I*; Eisenberg, DA; Bates, ME; US ARMY ENGINEER RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER, VICKSBURG, MS, USA, CONTRACTOR TO THE US ARMY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER, VICKSBURG, MS, USA; Matthew.E.Bates@usace.army.mil Resilience polices and applications to climate change Escalating adverse events associated with climate change such as natural disasters are reorienting national and local policies to support managed resilience. Resilience is defined by Merriam-Webster as: an ability to recover from or adjust easily to misfortune or change. Advancing general knowledge and application of resilience in complex socio-techno-ecological systems (e.g. a city or military installation) offers a means to address the unforeseen and cascading damages that climate change can cause. As adaptive management strategies are a key component of improving system resilience, other system features such as network structure, data acquisition methods, and decision models employed also determine how well the system will adjust to adverse events. Therefore, improving the resilience of these systems requires a combination of measures associated with both the system’s engineered performance under stress as well as policy and management structures that support adverse event response and recovery. However, as resilience has moved from an ecological and engineering concept to application, there has been limited work addressing whether policies or programs are successful at generating climate change resilience. Moreover, linkages between the impacts of climate change with damages to critical infrastructure and cyber systems require that policies developed outside the usual climate change purview adopt a broader spectrum of strategies to support their resilience. In this presentation, we discuss policies to address resilience at a national and local level to compare perceived success and failures with respect to both engineering performance and adaptive management strategies. T1-I.2 Liu, X*; Serrano, JA; Saat, MR; Christopher, CPL; University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; liu94@illinois.edu Managing the Risk of Crude Oil Transportation by Rail U.S. crude oil production has recently increased significantly in part attribute to advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies. Consequently, this resulted in considerable growth of crude oil shipment by rail. U.S. Class I railroads originated 9,500 carloads of crude oil in 2008, and this number had increased to 66,000 carloads in 2011. Meanwhile, it may increase the risk of hazardous materials release incidents. Risk management of rail crude oil transportation has become increasingly urgent in light of several recent severe release incidents in North America. To assist the railroad industry in understanding the risk of transporting crude oil and the effectiveness of various risk reduction options, the Association of American Railroads sponsored our research to enable estimation and reduction of crude oil release risk. This presentation will describe a novel risk analysis model involving the estimation of the probability and consequence of crude oil release from train accidents. The probability distribution of number of tank cars released is estimated based on a series of conditional probabilities accounting for a variety of principal infrastructure-related and rolling-stock-related factors (such as train length, speed, number and location of tank cars in the train, tank car specification and accident cause). The consequence of a release incident can be measured by affected population, which is related to the number of tank car releases and the amount of release. We model release consequence using simulation methods on a geographic information system (GIS) platform. Finally, we identify and evaluate the safety effectiveness of several potential risk reduction strategies. The methodology and analysis provide a quantitative approach that enables more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
Page 1 and 2:
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts W
Page 3 and 4:
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts P
Page 5 and 6:
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts T
Page 7 and 8:
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts M
Page 9 and 10:
Page 11 and 12:
Page 13 and 14:
Page 15 and 16:
Page 17 and 18:
Page 19 and 20:
Page 21 and 22:
Page 23 and 24: SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts P
Page 25 and 26: SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts W
Page 27 and 28: SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts M
Page 33 and 34: SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts T
Page 73: SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts T
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
show all

Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?