Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts W4-C.3 Bessette, DL*; Campbell-Arvai, V; Arvai, JL; University of Calgary; dlbesset@ucalgary.ca A decision support framework for developing regional energy strategies Developing energy strategies requires more than just technical skill and subject-matter expertise, it requires the ability to identify and prioritize objectives, construct—and forecast the consequences of—alternatives, and confront tradeoffs. These elements must be incorporated into a decision-making framework that also allows for public participation and deliberation and does so in a rigorous, transparent and defensible manner. If the ultimate goal is to inform policy, then such a process must also be iterative and rapidly deployable. This paper reports on a structured decision-making (SDM) framework deployed in Michigan in 2012 (n = 182) and then again in Alberta, Canada in 2013 (n > 500). This online framework not only incorporated the above elements into the energy-strategy development process, but also for the first time allowed stakeholders to construct their own portfolios of energy alternatives. Previous work in this field has asked participants to compare and assess a small number of portfolios (6-10), with each portfolio focusing on unique objectives. The current framework, using real, context-specific energy constraints and demands, asked participants to build portfolios by choosing from twenty different fuel and energy types, and emission-mitigation technologies, while also examining how those portfolios performed and compared across six key objectives. The framework also included a portfolio-ranking task and swing weighting of objectives. Participants reported high satisfaction, comfort with the process informing real decisions, and low cognitive difficulty and overall stress. By comparing pre- and post-framework knowledge levels, participants exhibited significantly more knowledge gain in treatments that involved portfolio construction, as compared to participants in treatments that omitted the construction element. Finally, participants’ portfolio ranks and a separate rank order generated using a linear additive value model show that participants’ decisions may not be internally consistent. M2-G.1 Binder, AR*; Zechman, EM; North Carolina State University; arbinder@ncsu.edu Recycled water and risk communication: How citizens evaluate new technologies for municipal water systems Population growth, drought, and climate change increase the stresses on water supply, and the potential for increased water scarcity has drawn attention to the possibilities of water reuse for re-engineering the urban water cycle. However, research indicates that consumers may have an initial reaction of disgust to the idea of using recycled water, and scholars have therefore investigated ways to encourage adoption of its use. Because of the possibility of initial negative reactions, there is a substantial set of existing literature on how citizens assess subjective risks of technologies and how those perceptions and interpretations reverberate throughout a social system. The current study builds upon the psychometric and social amplification of risk frameworks by investigating how citizens make sense of a new technology to augment water supplies in their communities. With a representative survey of adults residing in the United States, we measured knowledge, attitudes, interest, behavioral intentions, and other variables surrounding the issue of recycled water. Our data offer a novel look at individual- and social-level sense-making of a new, immediately tangible technology carrying a unique risk signal. Preliminary findings indicate that risk/benefit evaluations of recycled water are not only based on psychological factors such as trust and knowledge, but also highly influenced by social factors such as interpersonal discussion and social networks. Our findings contribute to applied knowledge about the relationship between activities that municipal water utilities may or may not control, such as educational campaigns or word-of-mouth communication, to gain insight to the factors that may drive the success of plans by cities and towns to incorporate recycled water into their water supply infrastructure. W3-K.3 Bjerga, T*; Aven, T; University of Stavanger; torbjorn.bjerga@uis.no Adaptive risk management using the new risk perspectives – an example from the oil and gas industry This paper discusses management of risk in case of large uncertainties, and the use of adaptive risk management in such situations. This type of management is based on the acknowledgement that one best decision cannot be made but rather a set of alternatives should be dynamically tracked to gain information and knowledge about the effects of different courses of action. In the paper we study a case from the oil and gas industry, the main aim being to gain insights on how the adaptive risk management could be implemented when giving due attention to the knowledge and uncertainty aspects of risk. In recent years several authors have argued for the adoption of some new types of risk perspectives which highlight uncertainties and knowledge rather than probabilities in the way risk is understood and measured - the present paper is using these perspectives as the basis for the discussion. W4-E.2 Boelter, FB; ENVIRON International; fboelter@environcorp.com Risk Assessment as a Core Competency for Industrial Hygiene Industrial hygiene developed out of public health initiatives and evolved with the industrialization of modern society. Industrial hygienists are frequently referenced as the original health risk assessors. We will cover what is risk and how the four step paradigm informs occupational exposure assessments. We will discuss risk characterization and perception as well as the various concepts of risk and the different thoughts about safe and zero risk. We will look at human behaviors and modes of action such as tending to underweight false alarms and waiting to act until a hazard is imminent. We will also examine occupational health parallels to public health and environmental exposures assessments and the concept of “Fit for Purpose”. We will discuss core competencies for the occupational hygienist related to risk assessment, risk characterization, risk management, and risk communication. Often our professional language is one of comparisons following numerical calculations. Most of the time our audience is attuned to a different nontechnical, more intuitive language. We need to effectively convey our information to those whose behaviors we are trying to influence. We will also explore risk related initiatives being undertaken in the occupational hygiene community to develop and make available methods and tools for risk-based decision-making. Such tools include decision analysis, cost-benefit analysis (or benefit-cost analysis), cost-effectiveness analysis, comparative risk analysis, and value-of-information analysis. Many of these approaches were developed outside of the occupational hygiene profession but within the context of environmental, medical, and financial decision-making, yet they are well-suited for use in occupational settings. By conveying the risk of outcomes in a manner that aligns with the verbiage and context of “risk”, occupational hygienists will be able to sit at the planning table and pull the resources needed to continue the important work of focusing resources needed to adequately protecting workers. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts M4-E.2 Boelter, FW*; Xia, Y; Persky, JD; ENVIRON International; fboelter@environcorp.com Cumulative Exposures to Asbestos Fibers from Dropped Ceiling Installation and Maintenance Dropped ceilings began around 1940s to be used in commercial and to a lesser degree residential construction for better acoustics, modern appearance, reduction of heating and lighting costs, and compatibility with then-new suspended fluorescent lighting. Several fatal fires including the 1958 Our Lady of the Angels fire in Chicago in which combustible building materials including acoustic tiles were accused of costing loss of life, hastened the inclusion of fireproof asbestos in interior building materials until the mid to late 1970's. We developed an algorithm for the reconstruction of exposures to airborne asbestos fibers resulting from ceiling tile activities and implemented the algorithm using hypothetical work histories for five categories of people – specialty construction contractors, general building contractors, Do-It-Yourself nonprofessionals (DIYer), maintenance trades, and bystanders. We present new exposure data obtained through two field studies on asbestos-containing ceiling tiles removal and replacement and one chamber study involving cutting and installing such tiles. These data, coupled with professional judgment and mathematical modeling (Bayesian decision analysis and stochastic simulation), lead to the estimations of 8 h time-weighted average (TWA) as well as 1-year and 10-year cumulative exposures to asbestos fibers from working with asbestos-containing ceiling tiles. Our results estimate mean 1-year cumulative exposure expressed as f/cc-years to be 0.007 for specialty construction contractors, 0.0004 for general building contractors, 0.00008 for Do-It-Yourself nonprofessionals, 0.004 for maintenance trades, and 0.0004 for bystanders. The distributions of 8 h TWA dust and asbestos fiber exposures estimated for the five worker categories are compared to historical exposure data, while the cumulative exposure estimates are used to evaluate health risks. None of the five categories of workers receive a cumulative exposure (dose) that would significantly increase their risk for disease development. T2-H.1 Boerman, D*; Gallagher, M; Headquarters, U.S. Air Force; douglas.boerman@pentagon.af.mil U.S. Air Force Risk Assessment Framework The Headquarters of the United States Air Force has adopted major components of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff's Risk Assessment System to develop a risk-based decision support approach to inform major decisions, especially with regard to logistics. The major advantages of using the Chairman's system are improved clarity in internal Air Force decisions and improved risk communication between the Air Force and the Joint Staff. Use of a mature, rigorous process improves both identification of risk origin and credibility in communicating risk information. This transition to a Risk Assessment Framework is still underway and lessons learned in implementing a new risk approach within a complex government organization will benefit risk practioners in and out of government W4-B.3 Boffetta, P*; Mundt, KA; Mundt, DJ; Checkoway, H; Swenberg, J; Adami, H-O; Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, ENVIRON International Corporation University of washington, Seattle, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Harvard University School of Public Health; paolo.boffetta@i-pri.org Integrating toxicological & epidemiological evidence of carcinogenicity: Application of Epid-Tox framework for evaluating relationships between formaldehyde & nasopharyngeal cancer & myeloid leukemia Substantial scientific evidence is available to evaluate the carcinogenicity of formaldehyde. Although several evaluations have been conducted, none has formally integrated toxicological and epidemiological evidence. Applying the Epid-Tox Framework for systematically combining toxicological and epidemiological evidence, as described by Adami et al. (2011), we present causal inference grids for the association between formaldehyde exposure and risks for nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) and myeloid leukemia (ML). Separate grids are necessary because of the likely different modes of action, as well as the different epidemiological evidence for these two malignancies. For each grid, we applied the following steps separately for the toxicological and epidemiological evidence: 1) we assessed the quality of primary research studies and categorize them as “acceptable”, “supplementary” or “unacceptable”; 2) we performed a weight of evidence evaluation; and 3) we assigned a scalable conclusion regarding the strength or plausibility of the evidence, stated in terms of “evidence of effect” or “evidence of an absence of effect”. The scalable conclusions are simultaneously placed on the causal relationship grid. The key determinant of the overall causal conclusion is highly dependent on the scalable conclusions for both the toxicological and epidemiological evidence. Therefore, we will present the detailed rationale for each of these and discuss the required assumptions and sources of uncertainties in interpreting these placements. Following this method, the evidence enters the “Likely” quadrant for NPC, whereas for ML the evidence enters the “Unlikely” quadrant. M2-E.5 Bolger, PM*; Ezendam, J; Exponent, Washington DC; National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands; pmbolger33@gmail.com Peanut allergen: Global Burden of Disease A systematic literature review of peanut allergy was performed within the framework of the Foodborne Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) of the World Health Organization (WHO) that is tasked with estimating the global burden of disease (BOD) for food borne diseases. The symptoms of peanut allergy vary from mild to severe, from swollen lips, shortness of breath to anaphylactic shock, which is potentially fatal. The most important parameters were found to be the number of people who suffer from a peanut allergy and the impact it has on their quality of life. BOD is a measure that quantifies the consequences of a disease by combining the loss of health from impaired quality of life and premature mortality. The prevalence of peanut allergy in Western countries is 0.5 to 1.5 per cent of the population; however, there is a lack of prevalence data from developing countries. Geographical differences in prevalence appear to exist, since peanut allergy is uncommon in Turkey and Israel. Symptoms of the allergy are induced when individuals with a peanut allergy eat products that contain peanuts. Although they can be severe, the symptoms are usually short-lasting. Consequently, they will not have a large impact on BOD. The number of people who die due to a peanut allergy is low which also has a limited impact on BOD. The quality of life of people with a peanut allergy can be significantly impaired, primarily because they are anxious about accidentally eating products that contain peanut. This impairment of quality of life is important in deriving an estimate of the BOD. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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