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SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts M3-J.2 Morrow, WR*; Gopal, A; Lawerence Berkeley National Laboratory; WRMorrow@lbl.gov Large-Scale Biomass Feedstocks: A Potentially Intermittent Renewable Resource with Economic Risk for Biofuel Producers High cost of technology is seen as the primary barrier to full commercialization of cellulosic biofuels despite broad expectation that once conversion technology breakthroughs occur, policy support is only needed to accelerate cost reductions through “learning by doing” effects. In this study, we hypothesize that droughts pose a significant economic risk to biofuel producers and consumers regardless of the rate at which technology costs fall, especially once biofuels production reaches the upper threshold of biomass feedstock availability. We model a future switchgrass derived cellulosic biorefinery industry in Kansas based on spatially resolute historic (1996 to 2005) weather data, representing a rainfall regime that could reflect drought events predicted to occur throughout the U.S. We find that droughts reduced modeled biorefinery capacity factors, in four years out of 10. Interestingly, we find that two logical strategies to plan for drought; (a) building large biorefineries to source feedstock from a larger area and, (b) storing switchgrass in good production years for use in drought years; are not very effective in reducing drought risks. In conclusion we propose that biofuels be viewed as an intermittent renewable energy source much like solar and wind electricity production, although on a longer-term timeframe. M3-G.2 Morss, RE*; Demuth, JL; Lazo, JK; Dickinson, K; Lazrus, H; Morrow, BH; National Center for Atmospheric Research; morss@ucar.edu Understanding public responses to hurricane risk messages Recent events such as Hurricanes Isaac and Sandy illustrate that weather forecasters and public officials still face major challenges in communicating about hurricane risks with members of the public. This project seeks to improve hurricane risk communication by building understanding of how members of the public respond to hurricane forecast and warning messages. This includes investigating the extent to which different hurricane messages help motivate people to take appropriate protective action, and how and why different people respond to messages differently. To begin addressing these issues, we conducted a survey of members of the public who reside in areas of coastal south Florida that are at risk from hurricanes and storm surge. The survey presented respondents with different risk messages about a hypothetical hurricane situation, based on modifications of the National Hurricane Center’s track forecast cone product. Respondents were then asked about their intentions to take different protective actions (e.g., evacuate, withdraw cash from the bank) as well as questions about their perceptions of the risks and the risk message. The survey also included questions on respondents’ sociodemographics, worldviews, past hurricane experiences, and perceived barriers to evacuation. The analysis examines how respondents’ intended protective responses were influenced by their characteristics, their experiences and perceptions, and the different message elements tested. We will discuss results from this analysis, as well as initial work applying risk theories (e.g., Cultural Theory of Risk, Extended Parallel Process Model) to help understand the findings. M2-D.2 Mukherjee, D*; Botelho, D; Sarkar, S; Gow, AJ; Schwander, SS; Chung, KF; Tetley, TT; Zhang, J; Georgopoulos, PG; Chemical Engineering, Rutgers University; dwaipayan.chem@gmail.com Multiscale mechanistic modeling of the respiratory toxicodynamics of engineered nanoparticles Engineered Nanoparticles (ENPs) are increasingly becoming constituents of consumer and industrial products. A major exposure route for ENPs is inhalation and as a result, the respiratory system is the first biological target. The aim of this work is to develop a multiscale computational model for the physiologically and biochemically based simulation of toxicodynamic processes associated with ENP inhalation. Computational modules for different biological effects have been developed as components of a dose-response risk information analysis system, which provides a mechanistic framework that utilizes data from both in vitro and in vivo studies designed specifically for this purpose. Modules are developed for multiple biological scales (from cell to tissue to organ) within the respiratory system, providing explicit characterization of processes such as surfactant dynamics and uptake and elimination of ENP by cells. The respiratory system was decomposed into functional modules with alveolar surfactant dynamics, cellular dynamics, cellular inflammation and ENP-surfactant interactions being considered separately. The model first developed and parameterized for mice, was extended to rats using additional species-specific data and will be ultimately extrapolated to humans. The model also considers the mechanistic pathways involved in pulmonary cellular inflammation utilizing parameters estimated using in vitro measurements involving each cell type and ENPs. Surfactant levels and composition and the resultant changes in alveolar surface tension were linked to lung function using a pulmonary mechanics model. The model predictions were successfully compared with lung function measurements following forced oscillatory breathing maneuvers and with in vivo measurements of cell counts, cytokines and surfactants in the lung lavage fluid of ENP exposed rodents. Ongoing work focusses on adaption of the mechanistic modules to support risk analysis of human exposures to ENPs. W2-H.1 Munns, J; Schafer Corporation; munnsjc@gmail.com A vector approach to measuring deterrence in adversary informed, scenario based risk analyses When a scenario based risk model involves an adversarial actor which behaves to some extent outside of the system being modeled, deterrence is generally a critical consideration. It is often difficult to quantify, and therefore describe, the value of any deterrent effects realized by defensive measures tested in the risk model. This presentation will propose a novel method for measuring deterrence in a relative sense, with the goal of improving the decisions which are informed by a risk analysis. The approach relies on the likelihood vector generated by the risk scenario tree, where each scenario has a likelihood, and the collection of likelihoods can be considered a vector of n dimensions (where n is the number of scenarios being evaluated). If the components of that likelihood vector are determined, or at least influenced, by an adversary, and if we assume that there is deterrent value in forcing an adversary to change its plans, then any change to the likelihood vector can be measured and attributed a corresponding deterrent value. The change of the likelihood vector can simply be measured either as the angle between the old and the new vector, the magnitude of the vector which results from subtracting the old and the new vector, or with reference to some other point in the decision space. This approach could also be applied to a utility vector if an adversary calculates a utility for every scenario, or group of scenarios. This presentation considers several basic examples of the proposed vector based approach, suggests which forms of risk analysis this method is best used with, and provides several suggestions for how these metrics are best communicated and visually represented. Additional consideration is given to handling the case where scenario likelihoods are uncertain and are represented by probability functions. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts M3-J.4 Murphy, PM; George Washington University; murph@gwu.edu Electricity and development: A risk based analysis of grid extension and distributed energy resources. More than 1.3 billion people – 20% of the world’s population - lack access to an electricity grid. Fewer than 4% people and enterprises in the rural developing world are connected to a grid. As energy access is critical for economic development this has huge impacts on current and potential development. There has been much analysis and effort towards determining when and where grid extension or distributed energy resources (DER)are more economical for addressing this challenge, but what all of these analyses lack is an understanding that even where the grid reaches in the developing world it is not reliable. Blackouts are common and lengthy. The trade-off is not necessarily just between bulk grid and DER, but whether both are necessary, affordable and optimal for supporting near term and long term development. This research will (1) provide a brief examination of the importance of electricity for development; (2) review some of the past work in grid power vs. DER; (3) provide some context for the lack of reliability in the developing world’s electricity infrastructure; and finally (3) provide recommendations for modifying grid vs. DER analysis to consider an unreliable grid. Analyses will focus on Northern Uganda using three sites where we are installing kilowatt scale solar-hybrid microgrids. W4-D.2 Nadadur, S*; NIEHS; nadadurs@niehs.nih.gov Toxicological and Health Effects Assessment efforts for MWCNTs in NCNHIR Consortium The mechanical strength and excellent physicochemical properties of the carbon nanotubes (CNT) led to their widespread industrial use and application. It’s that with diverse surface and functional modifications, about 50,000 different types of carbon nanotubes can be produced. The expanded use of CNTs in flame-retardant coating for textiles and upholstery presents increased human exposure. Animal toxicological studies suggest the propensity for CNTs in the induction of frustrated phagocytosis, granulomatous inflammation and fibrosis. Hence, the toxicological assessment approaches towards providing biological plausibility and scientific bases for health risk assessment should incorporate systematic high throughput in vitro screening and further in vivo validation. This presentation will detail the current research efforts at the NIEHS Center for Nanotechnology Health Effects Implications Research (NCNHIR) consortium efforts in integrating in vitro and in vivo studies on a select set of commercially produced multiwall carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) across different laboratories. These efforts are hoped to provide a detailed understanding on the contribution of MWCNTs purity, length, state of aggregation, and surface chemistry in biological and statistical modeling for determining hazard potential and health effects towards risk assessment. The views and opinions expressed here do not necessarily represent the opinions or conclusions of NIEHS, NIH or the US Government. T4-I.5 Naito, W*; Yasutaka, T; National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology; w-naito@aist.go.jp Cost and Effectiveness of Decontamination Options in Special Decontamination Areas in Fukushima The objective of this study is to evaluate the cost and effectiveness of decontamination options on external doses in the Special Decontamination Areas in Fukushima. Geographical Information System (GIS) was used to relate the predicted external dose in the affected areas with the number of potential inhabitants and the land-use in the areas. The comprehensive review of the costs of different decontamination options were conducted and compiled to be used for the analyses. The results suggested that the areal decontamination in the Special Decontamination Areas in Fukushima would be effective for some but not all the area to reduce air dose rate by the target level in the short period of time. In a standard option scenario, the analysis of cost and effectiveness implied that the decontamination costs for agricultural areas were estimated to account for the most part of the total decontamination costs. Within the total decontamination costs for agricultural areas, the costs of storage are estimated to account for approximately 60%. In addition, the costs of decontamination per person for each unit area are estimated to vary greatly. Our analysis implied that the choice of decontamination options would result in a significant decrease in the costs of decontamination and to make the most of the limited budget in the meaningful decontamination, the decontamination options should be determined according to the air dose rates and future land-use or town planning. P.134 Nakayachi, K; Doshisha University; nakayachi@mail.doshisha.ac.jp Trust in a wide variety of risk managers after a catastrophic disaster The results of an opinion survey suggest that the public’s trust in technological and scientific experts deteriorated overall after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan. It is not surprising that trust in risk managers responsible for nuclear technology declined after the Level 7 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Similarly, public confidence in experts responsible for disaster protection against earthquakes and tsunamis also decreased as a result of the disaster casualty of over twenty thousand. Does the public, however, distrust experts who were not directly related to predicting and responding to these disasters? The opinion survey mentioned above used the general term “scientists” and “technical experts” as the job description to be evaluated by the respondents. An expert is a specialist with competency in a particular area, however. Therefore, if the public’s trust in experts had deteriorated overall, risk managers in different areas (e.g., BSE, new infectious disease, agrochemicals, etc.) would have been mistrusted more compared with the period before the Tohoku earthquake. This research empirically examines the fluctuation in public trust of a wide variety of risk managers after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, comparing the survey data conducted before and after the earthquake. The results revealed that, of the fifty-one risk management systems, only two (earthquakes and nuclear power) showed decreased levels of trust. There was no significant difference in the trust score concerning the thirty hazards unrelated to earthquakes and nuclear power. Interestingly, regarding the other nineteen hazards, trust has actually increased without any evidence that the risk management has improved. The fact that public trust in risk managers unrelated to earthquakes and nuclear power has increased after the earthquake is well explained by the finite-pool-of-worry hypothesis and supported by findings of Nakayachi et al. (in press). December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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