Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts P.59 Henning, CC*; Overton, AJ; Marin, K; Cleland, JC; Turley, AT; ICF International; cara.henning@icfi.com DRAGON: A Single Risk Assessment Database to Promote Transparency and Data Sharing With the availability of large volumes of data for risk assessment and a greater emphasis on consistency and transparency in federal agencies, data management and data sharing are of keen interest for risk assessors. The DRAGON tool is a database that stores risk assessment data and allows nimble management of the overall assessment process. Within DRAGON, the risk assessors can implement systematic review of the literature, manage the assessment of the quality of key studies and store related decisions, manage the data entry process, perform dose-response modeling, and rapidly generate reports in a variety of formats. The database itself has a unified structure that allows data-sharing across agencies and risk assessors with similar interests in a given chemical. Data-entry forms, reports, and assessment decision logic can be tailored for each agency, though, to meet the different internal priorities and needs. Included in the database is an evolving health outcome standard vocabulary that can be crosswalked to any other vocabulary if needed. The vocabulary is based on a system-based classification for each endpoint. Specific endpoints can also be mapped to custom categories for each assessment as desired. DRAGON also provides a framework for coordinating the work of multiple people working on assessments of chemicals with large databases to improve consistency and to facilitate quality assurance procedures. M3-F.2 Henry, AD; Dietz, T*; University of Arizona; adhenry@email.arizona.edu Co-Evolution of Beliefs and Networks in Environmental Risk Policy: An Advocacy Coalition Framework Approach Effectively managing issues of environmental risk requires collaboration within policy networks. Within the environmental policy process, networks of information sharing, resource exchange, and other forms of interaction allow organizations to synthesize information and work towards shared goals. Ultimately, this allows policy actors to collectively learn how to deal with complex, uncertain, and emerging risks. Despite the importance of policy networks, however, the forces that shape these structures — and possible interventions to promote more effective networks — are not well understood. According to the Advocacy Coalition Framework, the dynamics of policy network formation lead to structures exhibiting belief-oriented segregation—that is, a high correspondence between shared policy beliefs and voluntary collaborative relationships. These structures may be produced through at least two pathways: belief homophily, where actors actively seek out connections with others sharing their belief system, and organizational learning, where policy beliefs diffuse through collaborative ties between organizations involved in risk policy. The cross-sectional design of many policy network studies precludes an explicit examination of these potentially complementary forces. This paper explicitly examines these dynamics using a reanalysis of data on policy beliefs and networking in U.S. environmental risk policy across two time periods, 1984 and 2000 (N = 223). Results indicate strong homophily effects, but relatively weak learning effects, in the evolution of this policy network. This research helps pave the way for additional research on the dynamics that share policy networks and beliefs, and also helps to clarify the differences between individual versus organizational contributions to policy network evolution. M4-B.6 Henry, SH; Aungst, J*; Castoldi, AF; Rhomberg, L; Butterworth, J; Retired Food and Drug Administration, Food and Drug Admin., European Food Safety Authority, Gradient Corp., Science journalist/investigative reporter; sarahalehenry10@yahoo.com Panel Discussion for A new look at the toxicity of bisphenol A and public health policy This panel discussion moderated by Sara Henry and Jason Aungst will allow presenters to interact with each other and then with the audience on the symposium topic of the toxicity of bisphenol and public health policy. M4-B.5 Henry, SH; Aungst, J; Castoldi, AF; Rhomberg, L; Butterworth, T; Fitzpatrick, J*; Retired Food and Drug Admin., Food and Drug Admin., European Food Safety Authority, Gradient Corp., Science journalist/investigative reporter,; sarahalehenry10@yahoo.com A new look at the toxicity of bisphenol A and public health policy making A question and answer session with the presenters of this symposium and the audience will follow the panel discussion. Session will be moderated by Sara Henry and Julie Fitzpatrick December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts T1-A.4 HERRERA, DA; Toulouse School of Economics; daniel.herrera@tse-fr.eu To fortify or not, a structural analysis of the public advisory policy on folic acid in France This paper analyzes consumer’s response to the French advisory policy on folic acid. The advisory was issued in 2005 in order to warn pregnant women or women who plan to become pregnant about the perils of a poor diet and the bad health consequences to their offspring. The advisory specifically mentions the peril of neural tube diseases (NTDs) that would result from a deficiency of folic acid. We are interested in how consumers responded to the advisory policy. We investigate consumers’ responses in terms of their demand for fortified ready-to-eat breakfast cereals making use of structural difference in difference (DiD) methods. Even though the prevalence of NTDs did not change after the introduction of the advisory policy, we find evidence of a positive effect on at-risk consumers’ demand for fortified cereals. Fortification is, however, controversial because it may have potential side effects including cancer and neurotoxic effects in individuals’ aged 50 or older. We therefore provide a welfare assessment of a fortification policy in France. We find that the benefits of fortification outweigh the costs by a large amount. T4-B.5 Hertzberg, RC*; Burkhardt, EA; MacDonell, MM; Emory University; hertzberg@comcast.net Special Considerations for Risk Characterization in a Cumulative Risk Assessment The final step in a cumulative risk assessment (CRA) is the characterization of the risks. The step synthesizes information gathered in evaluating exposures to stressors together with dose-response relationships, inherent characteristics of those being exposed, as well as external environmental conditions. A cumulative risk characterization differs from a classical, chemical risk characterization in five important ways: the focus is on a population instead of a pollution source, exposures include chemicals along with environmental conditions and nonchemical stressors, the stressors and health effects are multidimensional, the complexity is partly handled by simplifying procedures and assumptions, and the uncertainty analysis is critical. CRAs also emphasize the involvement of not just risk scientists but also stakeholders and risk managers, especially in the planning, scoping and problem formulation step where assessment goals are decided. The characterization also includes an evaluation of how successful the assessment was in achieving those goals. This presentation illustrates these differences with case study examples, and shows how uncertainty analysis can be applied to indices and maps, two of the more common ways of communicating cumulative risks. P.58 Heyl, ME*; Moyano, E; Cornejo, F; Cifuentes, LA; Faculty of Enginnering, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile; marianne.heyl@gmail.com Environmental attitudes and behaviours of university students: A case of study at an Chilean university. Encouraging the adoption of pro-environmental behaviour is critical to reduce the environmental impacts and to move toward a more sustainable future. Higher education plays an important role in educate and form professionals who will play an important role in protecting the environment through their decision and behaviours in their personal and professionals lives. The aim of this study is to identify whether there are significant differences between university students depending on the diploma of specialisation, related to the environment or not, the year in which they are studying and gender. Besides to investigate which factors influence significantly (perceived effort, positive environmental attitude or perceives positive consequents) the frequency of pro-environmental behaviours in the students. The sample consisted of 383 students in first, third and sixth year by which two instruments were designed to measure environmental attitudes and behaviours. Significant differences were noted between those who are studying diplomas related to the environment and those who aren’t, as opposed to the variations at different stages of the course. However, students have positive environmental attitudes which are not reflected in the performance of environmental behaviour. Upon conducting regression analysis, it is noted that the three factors influence significantly the frequency of pro-environmental behaviour, being the perceived effort (negative) the most influential variable. T1-D.2 Hill, AA*; Kosmider, RD; Dewe, T; Kelly, L; De Nardi, M; Havelaar, A; Von Dobscheutz, S; Stevens, K; Staerk, K; Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency, Royal Veterinary College, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie; andrew.hill@ahvla.gsi.gov.uk Modelling the species jump: spatially ranking influenza A virus ability to cross species barrier and infect humans One of the most notorious group of zoonotic pathogens are Influenza A viruses. Historically, avian influenza viruses have been of primary concern as they were responsible for the pandemics in 1918 (“Spanish flu”), 1967 (Hong Kong) and 2009 (“Swine flu”).The latter outbreak has challenged the ethos of Influenza A pandemic preparedness and highlights the importance of taking a broader approach to the problem. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has commissioned an Article 36 research project to develop a more formal approach to the identification of animal influenza A strains that have the potential to make the species jump into humans. We propose a prototype risk assessment framework to spatially rank Influenza A viruses circulating in animal populations for their potential to jump the species barriers to humans. We use a modified version of the classical epidemiological risk equation to estimate the risk of at least one human infection (given an infected livestock population) within a 5km2 area. The output will be a list of ranked animal viruses that could have the potential to infect humans in certain areas of the globe and, hence, may have pandemic potential. The intention is for the model to be eventually used regularly to prioritise research/surveillance for animal influenzas in higher risk areas of the globe. We will present initial spatial ranking results of the framework model for historic strains (validation) and hypothetical strains to illustrate the important issues and drivers of the model. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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