Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts P.87 Nance, P; Kroner, O; Dourson, M*; Toxicology Excellence for Risk Assessment; nance@tera.org Kids + chemical safety: a tool for educating the public about chemicals With an increasingly “plugged-in,” connected, and informed public, there is an evolving need for rapid availability and global dissemination of accurate information. Important decisions about personal health, and public health and safety are made daily by the scientific and medical community, legislators, the public and the media often based on inaccurate, incomplete or biased information on the internet. The exposure of children to chemicals in their environment and the possible effects on childhood growth and development is a paramount social concern. Many websites dedicated to children and chemical exposures are available. However, these websites can be generally characterized as either government sites that are technically dense, not interactive with users, and primarily targeted to the scientific community; or, sites developed by special interest groups, that lack technical depth, may/may not accurately represent the toxicology of the subject chemicals, may/may not be interactive with users, but that are nevertheless written at a level understandable to a broad public audience. A challenge for protection of children’s health to chemical exposures is to develop a website that can rapidly communicate independent, scientifically accurate information needed to make important decisions in a way that a broad user audience can understand and apply. Kids + Chemical Safety is scientifically accurate website, staffed by experts in toxicology, public health protection and scientific communication, that evenly represents perspectives, provides current information, interactive, and understandable to serve a broad audience, inclusive of scientists, parents and the media. T1-J.2 Nardinelli, C; Food and Drug Administration; clark.nardinelli@fda.hhs.gov Good Practices, Bad Practices, Benefits and Costs The Food and Drug Administration enforces regulations calling for current good manufacturing practices for food, feed, pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and dietary supplements. The regulations prescribe manufacturing practices that must be followed, as well as certain recommended but not required practices. Although the regulations in different forms have been in place for several decades, the underlying risks targeted by the regulations remain uncertain. In addition to uncertainty about the risks, the relation between the provisions of the rules and the risks to be mitigated is also uncertain. These uncertainties lead to the following questions: What are the risks to be mitigated? How do these regulations address them? Why are design standards mixed with performance standards? Is the mix of design and performance standard compatible with the risks? The difficulty in answering these questions has undermined efforts to estimate benefits and costs. In order to develop methods to estimate the benefits and costs of good manufacturing practices, I look at several justifications for these regulations and assess their plausibility in light of the risk management strategy. The justifications considered include preventing bad practices, information differences between experts and lay persons, enforcement costs, and differences in risk aversion. These various theories underlying the need for good manufacturing practices can be analyzed in light of existing evidence on the risks to be mitigated and the value placed on mitigating those risks. An additional assessment will deal with whether general good manufacturing practices are the most efficient way to deal with the different risks associated with different products. W3-K.2 Nateghi, R; Johns Hopkins University; rnategh1@jhu.edu Reflections on how to conceptualize and assess the performance and risk of different types of complex systems This talk provides some reflections on how to conceptualize and assess the performance and risk of complex systems that are impacted by a wide range of endogenous and exogenous stressors, such as energy systems. Different performance and risk metrics are discussed, both qualitative and quantitative, using probability and alternative ways of expressing uncertainties. The suitability of these metrics are studied under different frame conditions such as the assessment’s timeline; uncertain future regulations and policies; technological, environmental and demographic changes, etc. M4-E.3 Nemickas, H; Sager, S*; Navon, D; Hubbard, T; ARCADIS; hope.nemickas@arcadis-us.com Evaluation of a simple steady-state model: estimating resuspended particles in indoor air This presentation evaluates a screening-level methodology used to quantify potential inhalation of resuspended constituents present on surfaces within buildings. The U.S. Army Center for Health Promotion and Preventative Medicine, Technical Guide 312, Health Risk Assessment Methods and Screening Levels for Evaluating Office Worker Exposures to Contaminants on Indoor Surfaces Using Surface Wipe Data (TG 312) includes methodology to estimate particulate concentrations in indoor air based on resuspension from contaminated surfaces. The simple steady-state model accounts for the rate at which surface contaminants are resuspended into the air, loss due to deposition, and air exchanges in the building or room. TG 312 documents the uncertainties associated with estimating resuspended particulate concentrations, recognizing there are numerous factors that affect resuspension of surface particles. While no quantitative relationships between surface wipe concentrations and concurrent air concentrations have been reported, the most common way to estimate particles resuspended from a surface is to use empirical or estimated resuspension factors (i.e., ratio of air concentration to surface concentration) from the literature. Differences between surface wipe data and concurrent air concentrations that range over six orders of magnitude have been reported. The simple steady-state model, while incorporating deposition loss and air exchange, ultimately relies on a resuspension factor to estimate air concentrations. Empirical data collected during the renovation work at one site indicated air concentrations closely matched (i.e., within an order of magnitude) air concentrations estimated using the simple steady-state model. Surface wipe and indoor air data from multiple sites will be used to evaluate this simple steady-state model for different constituents and under different building conditions. Potential implications for application of the methodology will be discussed. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts W2-H.3 Nilsen, M*; Hawkins, B; Cox, J; Gooding, R; Whitmire, M; Battelle Memorial Institute and the Department of Homeland Security Chemical Security Analysis Center; nilsenm@battelle.org Conquering the Iron Triangle of SME Elicitation The Chemical Terrorism Risk Assessment (CTRA) is a DHS CSAC funded program that estimates the risk among chemical terrorism attack scenarios and assists in prioritizing mitigation strategies. The CTRA relies on Subject Matter Expert (SME) elicitation of Law Enforcement and Intelligence Communities to quantify the threat and vulnerability parameters associated with various attack scenarios, as well as the capabilities of terrorist organizations. The term “Iron Triangle” is frequently used to describe situations with three interconnected constraints in which one constraint cannot be changed without changing at least one of the other constraints. One canonical example of this concept is the Iron Triangle of project management: Scope, Schedule and Budget. The challenges of SME elicitation can also be characterized as an Iron Triangle of Level of Detail, Data Quality, and SME Fatigue. Level of Detail in this context can be defined as the resolution of the elicitation results with respect to capturing intricacies and dependencies among the components of attack scenarios. Data Quality in elicitation terms can be defined as the level to which the results accurately capture the analysts’ opinions. SME Fatigue is a commonly used term in elicitations referring to the level of effort, measured in both hours and number of in-person meetings, required for an SME to participate. Innovative techniques, such as interactive tools, utility models, and YouTube-style video clips, are discussed as methods to conquer the Iron Triangle of elicitation and improve both the level of detail and quality of data, while reducing SME fatigue. The impact of these techniques will be highlighted by comparing past CTRA elicitation procedures with more recent CTRA elicitation techniques. W3-K.1 North, DW; NorthWorks, Inc. ; northworks@mindspring.com Probability theory for inductive reasoning: The "necessarist" viewpoint as an alternative, and supplement, to subjective probability. Many practitioners of decision analysis (applied Bayesian decision theory) regard its foundation for the use of probability theory as the axiomatization by Leonard J. Savage, and the procedure for assessing probabilities as subjective judgment in choosing among wagers. Another tradition, the “necessarist” approach, views probability theory as the logic for scientific inference. That is, judgments are in principle built up from available information using an explicit formal process, rather than dependent on the individual cognition of subjects as the source for the probability judgments - with the multiple potentials for biases that have been explored in psychological research. The basis for the necessarist approach can be found in the writings of Laplace, two centuries ago. Early twentieth century scholars include economist John Maynard Keynes and geophysicist Harold Jeffreys. Later contributors include Bruno de Finetti, physicist Richard T. Cox, and physicist E.T. Jaynes, whose 2003 book, Probability Theory: The Logic of Science provides one of the best recent expositions of the necessarist viewpoint. We review this history and provide an overview of how symmetry or invariance, generalizations of Laplace’s Principle of Insufficient Reason, can provide the basis for choosing probabilities in a way that avoids recourse to subjective judgments about wagers. P.86 Ohkubo, C; Japan EMF Information Center; ohkubo@jeic-emf.jp Risk Communication Activities of Health Risks by the Japan EMF Information Center In response to the World Health Organization (WHO)’s publication of the Environmental Health Criteria monograph (EHC) No. 238 and WHO Fact Sheet No. 322 on extremely low frequency (ELF) electromagnetic fields, the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) set up a Working Group on Electric Power Facility and EMF Policy in June 2007. The Working Group compiled their report in which their recommendations to the METI were incorporated. To address issues related to potential long-term effects of ELF-EMF, the Working Group recommended that a neutral and permanent EMF information centre should be established to promote risk communication and facilitate peoples’ understanding based on scientific evidences. In response to this recommendation, the Japan EMF Information Centre (JEIC) was established in July 2008. JEIC is financed from donations by stakeholders. The Administration Audit Committee was founded in order to ensure and monitor the neutrality and transparency of JEIC operations. The JEIC institutional system is determined to develop itself into a world-class risk communication center with expertise in EMF. JEIC’s philosophy and purpose are to provide easy-to-understand scientific information on EMF and its health effects and minimize the gap of risk perception among stakeholders and promote risk communication from a fair perspective. JEIC’s activities to achieve its purposes include (1)Creating an EMF information database including EMF research database, (2)Communication with mass media, (3)Organizing public meetings, (4)Q&A by telephone and emails. P.117 Ohno, K*; Asami, M; Matsui, Y; National Institute of Public Health, National Institute of Public Health, Hokkaido University, Japan; ohno-k@niph.go.jp Questionnaire survey on water ingestion rates for various types of liquid and the seasonal differences between summer and winter Water ingestion rates not only from community water supply but also from commercial beverages were surveyed to obtain the water ingestion rates for various types of water and to investigate the seasonal differences. The surveys were conducted during winter and summer in 2012. As a general population of the ages 20–79 in Japan, members of an Internet research company were invited and 1188 individuals in winter and 1278 in summer responded. The respondents were asked to record the daily water intake volume of each kind of water in arbitrary two working days and one non-working day during the research period. The kinds of water were non-heated and heated tap water as a beverage, soup made from tap water, bottled water, and commercial beverage including alcoholic drinks. There were no much differences of water ingestion rate among the three days; the first day’s results were presented hereafter. The mean water intakes from all kinds of water in summer and winter were 1936 and 1638 mL/day, respectively (95%iles: 3570 and 2900 mL/day). The mean water intake in summer is 1.2 times greater than in winter. Nevertheless, the mean water intakes from tap water including soup in summer and winter were 1159 and 1124 mL/day, respectively (95%iles: 2400 and 2200 mL/day); there were small seasonal differences. The main component that caused seasonal differences was the commercial beverage. The mean intakes in summer and winter were 635 and 437 mL/day, respectively (95%iles: 2500 and 1200 mL/day). With respect to tap water intake, large seasonal differences of non-heated water were observed. The mean intake in summer was 2.1 times greater than in winter (545 and 255 mL/day; 95%iles: 1676 and 950 mL/day). As conclusions, seasonal differences of water intake should be considered in risk assessment, especially in microbial risk assessment; the default water ingestion rate of 2 L/day may not always be most appropriate in risk assessment depending on the types of water taken into account. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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