Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts
W2-J.3 Yoe, CE; Notre Dame of Maryland University;
cyoe1@verizon.net
Assessing and Managing ANS Risk in Great Lakes and
MIssissippi River
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers was directed by Congress to
conduct a study on the range of options and technologies
available to “prevent” the transfer of aquatic nuisance species
between the Mississippi River and Great Lakes basins, via
aquatic pathways. Starting with 254 ANS organisms, a
qualitative screening process identified 39 organisms of
potential concern. A qualitative risk assessment model was
developed, which subsequently assessed 12 of these ANS to be
medium or high risk species threatening the five pathways in
the Chicago Area Waterway System (CAWS). An additional 18
pathways were identified along the remainder of the shared
watershed boundary (Focus Area 2), but were not subjected to
the full, detailed qualitative risk assessment process. Over 90
individual nonstructural and technological measures for
managing the risk were identified and used to develop
alternatives to manage the risks over a series of varying time
frames. Alternatives including hydrologic separation,
application of technologies, and non-structural
best-management practices were developed to reduce the risk
of transfer of the identified species in the CAWS to the
maximum extent possible.
P.101 Yong, AG*; Lemyre, L; Pinsent, C; Krewski, D; University
of Ottawa; ayong089@uottawa.ca
Natural disaster cognitive appraisals and disaster
preparedness in immigrants and native-born in the
Canadian context: A need for psychosocial considerations
In Canada, the immigrant population has been identified as a
higher-risk population in the context of emergencies. Past
research shows that immigrants experience more negative
consequences post-disasters compared to the native-born. Thus,
it is important to induce emergency preparedness within this
population long before the event. Immigrants may have
different risk perceptions due to socio-contextual factors. Thus,
psychosocial considerations are critical in order to better target
risk communication and management for this population. Yet,
little is documented about the risk mental models of
immigrants. In an attempt to better understand the nature of
the perceptions of natural disasters in immigrants of Canada
and its relation to preparedness, data from a representative
national survey of the Canadian public (n = 3263) were
analyzed. This study examined natural disaster cognitive
appraisals (perceived risk, likelihood, knowledge, mastery,
complexity and uncertainty) between Canadian-born and
immigrants, and how these factors predicted preparedness
behaviours. Results showed that while there were no significant
differences in cognitive appraisals between Canadian-born and
immigrants, there were significant differences in how these
factors predicted uptake of preparedness behaviours. For
example, while perceived mastery positively predicted actual
preparedness for both immigrants and Canadian-born,
perceived knowledge positively predicted actual preparedness
for Canadian-born, but not immigrants. Also, intention to
comply with recommendations to evacuate was predicted
differentially for Canadian-born versus immigrants. Results
suggest that there may be socio-contextual nuances in the
pathways that can explain the differences in uptake of
preparedness. Therefore, psychosocial considerations for
immigrants need to be incorporated in risk communication and
management aiming at better preparedness and response.
Theoretical and practical implications will be discussed.
P.128 Yong Jin, LEE*; Ji Yeon, YANG; Geon Woo, LEE; Dong
Chun, SHIN; Yonsei University; yjlee75@yuhs.ac
Application of socio-economic analysis for restriction and
authorization of chemical in Korea
Industrial chemicals are essential to modern society and bring
benefits in the form of improved health, food supply, goods,
general lifestyle and well-being. Some chemicals, if they enter
the environment, can cause problems for human health and
ecosystems and it is important to identify the potential
hazardous endpoints, quantify the risk that genuine harm will
occur and develop strategies to mitigate that risk.
Socio-economic analysis (SEA) weighs the costs of any
restrictions on the production and use of chemicals against the
benefits to human health and the environment. The reasons
why industry needs to understand the principles and practices
of socio-economic analysis are: (l) to carry out, where
appropriate, a SEA as an argument for authorisation, and (2) to
be able to contribute as stakeholders in socio-economic
discussions with regulatory authorities when a SEA is used as a
basis for justifying restrictions. In this study, we are
constructing and calculating social benefit and cost using the
data of the value of a statistical life (VSL), cost of illness (COI),
and results of cost evaluation. The results of VSL, COI are
calculated by the adverse effects of carcinogen and
non-carcinogen and the obtained data from data base of
healthcare expenditures and several costs about illness, and
questionnaires about income, expenditures, quality of life, and
so on. VSL reflects the aggregation of individuals' willingness to
pay for fatal risk reduction and therefore the economic value to
society to reduce the statistical incidence of premature death in
the population by one. The result of VSL estimated by cancer
deaths is calculated US$ 73.6 million(2013) through contingent
valuation methods. In this study, appropriate authorization and
restriction of chemical substances will suggest through the
evaluation of the cost with the results calculated by the VSL
and COI.
W3-H.3 Yu, KS*; Tan, RR; Santos, JR; De La Salle University /
The George Washington University; krista.yu@dlsu.edu.ph
Managing Disaster Risk Strategies in Economic Systems
Based on Sectoral Vulnerability Analysis
Natural disasters pose significant threats of disruption to
economic systems. These disruptions lead to either loss of final
demand, loss of supply of goods or both. The interdependence
among the various sectors in a disrupted regional economy
creates an amplified effect on the initial impact of such extreme
events, which could induce additional vulnerability. This paper
develops an extension to the IIM in the form of a vulnerability
index, which can provide policy makers with a tool to measure
the efficiency of post-disaster risk management strategies,
considering economic impact, diversity and sector size as the
determinants of sector vulnerability. The vulnerability index
captures the impact of investments to various sectors in times
of disaster in order to yield the maximum returns to the entire
economy. This paper discusses seven scenarios that a policy
maker may consider (1) preference on economic impact only,
(2) preference for diversity of reach only, (3) preference on
sector size only, (4) equal preference for all components, (5)
priority preference for economic impact and diversity but none
for sector size, (6) priority preference for economic impact and
sector size but none for diversity, and (7) priority preference for
diversity and sector size but none for economic impact. Varied
results are generated across each scenario depending on the
preference structure of the policy maker with respect to the
vulnerability index components. Nevertheless, some sectors are
less sensitive to such preference variations and may persist on
their level of priority, independent of the scenario. Applying
these to the Philippines, we find that the trade sector is
consistently a high priority sector, while the government
services sector tends to be a low priority sector. The
manufacturing and transportation sectors are top priority
sectors. However, disregarding sector size as part of the policy
maker’s preference criteria reduces the priority level of the two
sectors.
December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD