Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts T4-D.4 Shatkin, JA; Vireo Advisors; jashatkin@gmail.com Life Cycle Risk Assessment of Nanocellulosic Materials As novel materials, cellulosic nanomaterials require proactive attention to ensure their environmental health and safety performance is addressed, and can be demonstrated. For novel nanoscale materials, limitations in the availability and reliability of data create challenges for measuring and assessing their potential risks to health and the environment in real world applications, particularly because of the dynamic nature of these materials in the environment. To date, studies of cellulosic nanomaterials have shown very little toxicity in the assays conducted. However, the emerging science on the behavior of nanoscale materials in the environment suggests a more thorough evaluation of safety to address occupational, consumer and environmental endpoints. In this talk, I will describe an analysis that broadly considered health and safety across the value chain for several anticipate product applications using cellulosic nanomaterials and outlines priorities for establishing safe management practices for the commercial use of nanocelluloses, including the status of standards. First, an assessment of the current state of knowledge and practice for managing EHS risks associated with nanocellulose throughout the product life cycle, during research and development, manufacturing, use in products, and environmental/end of life stages characterizes what is known, and what gaps exist regarding nanocellulose effects on health and environment, and what standards and guidelines already exist and what information is needed to address the breadth of stakeholder concerns. The analysis informs a roadmap that prioritizes the development of protocols most critical to advance R&D, manufacturing, and market development. Finally, the current status of standards development regarding EHS for cellulosic nanomaterials is discussed. W2-C.3 Shereif, M*; Monshi , M; Alharbi , B; King Saud University; mshereif@ksu.edu.sa Analysis and Monitoring of Criteria Air Pollutants in Selected Areas of Riyadh City, Saudi Arabia The present investigation was aimed at characterizing levels of the criteria air pollutants nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO), particulate matter (PM10), and lead (Pb) in Riyadh city in selected areas representing industrial (Al-Manakh), residential (Al-Malaz), recreational (Al-Rawda) and urban/road locations (Al-Bat’ha). The average concentration levels of NO2 in the industrial and urban/road areas, and SO2 in the industrial area, during the summer months of June through September of 2009 and 2010 exceeded the Saudi Arabian Air Quality Standards (SAAAQS) and US National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). The average CO concentrations in the four areas during 2009 were below the SAAQS and US NAAQS. However, the monthly averages of CO in the urban/road area exceeded the standards of both SAAAQS and the 8-h US NAAQS for CO (10,000 µg/m3) through the summer months of June, July, August, and September of 2010, which could be attributed to the emissions from excessive traffic and motor vehicles in this area. Ozone and lead concentrations at the four selected areas were below the SAAAQS and NAAQS. With the exception of the industrial area, the measured values of inhalable particulate matter (PM10) in the other areas were found to meet the SAAAQS M4-J.2 Sheriff, G; Maguire, K*; US Environmental Protection Agency; maguire.kelly@epa.gov Ranking Distributions of Environmental Outcomes Across Population Groups This paper examines the use of inequality indices for evaluating distributional impacts of alternative environmental policies across population groups defined by demographic variables such as race, ethnicity, or income. The rich literature devoted to the use of inequality indices for analyzing income distributions within and across countries provides a natural methodological toolbox for examining the distributional effects of environmental outcomes. We show that the most commonly used inequality indices, such as the Atkinson index have theoretical properties that make them inconvenient for analyzing bads, like pollution, as opposed to goods like income. We develop a transformation of the Atkinson index that is suitable for analyzing bad outcomes. In addition, we show how the rarely used Kolm-Pollak index is particularly well-suited for ranking distributions of adverse health and environmental outcomes. We provide an illustration of its potential use in the context of emissions standards affecting indoor air quality. M2-B.4 Shirley, SH*; Grant, RL; Honeycutt, M; Texas Commission on Environmental Quality; stephanie.shirley@tceq.texas.gov Integrating evidence: The importance of exposure and framing the question In 2009 the National Academies (NAS) emphasized the importance of problem formulation and exposure assessment, among other best practices. Robust problem formulation is helpful when incorporating biological relevance and chemical specific knowledge to meaningfully guide risk management options. As a first step, it is important to clarify the potential for exposure to chemicals of concern (COC) in order to develop the most reasonable and useful risk assessments. Once a potential COC has been identified, it is crucial to characterize sources, pathways, receptors and temporal patterns of exposure. For evaluation of inhalation exposures, ambient air monitoring data becomes increasingly important, although uncertainty around how air monitoring data correspond to personal exposures and specific health endpoints often remains. Initial stages of an exposure assessment may identify discrepancies between concentrations of COCs described in epidemiological or toxicological studies and concentrations to which the general population may be exposed. For example, design values from centrally-located monitors may be used in observational epidemiology studies to identify statistical correlations between concentrations and health endpoints of interest. However, when exposures are characterized for populations of interest, it may become apparent that it is unlikely individuals were routinely exposed to these levels, and therefore it is improbable that a particular health effect is due to the concentrations described in the study (i.e., an association is shown, but not causation). In conclusion, regulatory agencies often utilize problem formulation and exposure characterization along with weight of evidence criteria (such as the Hill criteria) to derive useful and robust risk assessments that can inform risk management determinations. Exposure assessments and problem formulation play major roles in these decisions. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts M3-D.4 Shoemaker, K*; Siegrist, J; Ferson, S; Stony Brook University, Applied Biomathematics; kevintshoemaker@gmail.com Mixing good data with bad Data sets have different qualities. Some data are collected with careful attention to proper protocols and careful measurement using highly precise instruments. In contrast, some data are hastily collected by sloppy or unmotivated people with bad instruments or shoddy protocols under uncontrolled conditions. Statistical methods make it possible to formally combine these two kinds of data in a single analysis. But is it always a good idea to do so? Interval statistics is one convenient method that accounts for the different qualities of data in an analysis. High quality data have tighter intervals and poor quality data have wider intervals, and the two can be legitimately pooled using interval statistics, but it appears that it is not always advisable for an analyst to combine good data with bad. We describe examples showing that, under some circumstances, including more data without regard for its quality unnecessarily increases the amount of uncertainty in the final output of an analysis. Ordinarily, statistical judgment would frown on throwing away any data, but as demonstrated by these examples, it seems clearly advantageous sometimes to ignore this judgment. More data does not always lead to more statistical power, and increasing the precision of measurements sometimes provides a decidedly more efficient return on research effort. This result is highly intuitive even though these examples imply a notion of negative information, which traditional Bayesian analyses do not allow. T2-E.3 Shortridge, JE*; Guikema, SD; The Johns Hopkins University ; jshortr1@jhu.edu Measuring health impacts from breaks in water distribution systems using internet search data The aging condition of drinking water distribution infrastructure has been identified as a factor in waterborne disease outbreaks and a priority area for research. Pipe breaks pose a particular risk, as they result in low or negative pressure which could result in contamination of drinking water from adjacent soils. However, measuring this phenomenon is challenging because the most likely health impact is mild gastrointestinal (GI) illness, which is unlikely to go reported to doctors or hospitals although it can result in significant social costs. Here we present a novel method that uses data mining techniques to assess the correlation between pipe breaks and internet search volume related to symptoms of GI illness in two major U.S. cities. Weekly search volume for the term “diarrhea” was regressed against the number of pipe breaks in each city, and additional covariates were used to control for seasonal patterns, search volume persistence, and other sources of GI illness. The fit and predictive accuracy of multiple regression and data mining techniques were compared, and a Random Forest models resulted in significantly lower predictive errors in both cities. Pipe breaks were found to be an important and positively correlated predictor of internet search volume in both cities, as were seasonal fluctuations and search volume persistence. This correlation indicates that breaks in the water distribution system could present health risks that are unlikely to be considered when estimating the benefits associated with infrastructure repair and investment. P.144 Smith, MN; Port, JA; Cullen, AC; Wallace, JC; Faustman, EM*; University of Washington; faustman@u.washington.edu A tool to facilitate the incorporation of metagenomic data into environmental microbial decision-making and risk analysis Advances in microbial genomics have opened up new opportunities for translation to public health risk research. Traditionally, methods for studying changes in the population dynamics of microbial communities have required cell culture and have focused on single organisms. Some microbes cannot be cultured with current methods or are poorly characterized, leading to incomplete assessment of microbial environmental health. The development of metagenomics, in which DNA is extracted directly from environmental samples and sequenced, now allows for the characterization of the taxonomic and functional potential of microbial communities, provides an expanded tool for microbial environmental health monitoring. However, new bioinformatics and analytical challenges have arisen in interpretation and translation of metagenomic data to decision-making and risk management. We provide a tool for the translation of metagenomic data to environmental health monitoring information relevant to public health decision-making and risk assessments. This framework allows functional data from Clusters of Orthologous Groups of proteins (COGs) to be interpreted within the context of public health. Using metagenomic data from 107 published biomes, we performed a functional analysis to identify COGs that are reflective of potential human impacts. Biomes with higher known potential human impact, such as the WWTP had a greater percentage of public health relevant COG relative abundance. Overall, we demonstrate that this is a valuable tool for distinguishing between environments with differing levels of human impact in the public health context. This project is supported by the NOAA-funded Pacific Northwest Consortium for Pre- and Post-doctoral Traineeships in Oceans and Human Health and the UW Pacific Northwest Center for Human Health and Ocean Studies (NIEHS: P50 ESO12762 and NSF: OCE-0434087), NOAA (UCAR S08-67883) and the Center for Ecogenetics and Environmental Health (5 P30 ES007033). P.74 Smith, D.W.; Conestoga-Rovers & Associates; dwsmith@craworld.com Atrazine effects on amphibians: Is it safe to go back into the water? In the mid-2000s, scientific debate about atrazine’s potential to cause endocrine disruption of amphibians played out in the bright lights and high stakes of EPA re-registration. As part of that process, EPA had its Science Advisory Board evaluate the available science on endocrine disruption. Depending on which conventional wisdom on the internet one reads, the SAB review either found serious errors in the science showing significant negative effects on amphibian development at low atrazine concentrations. Other sources claim the complete opposite, e.g., that the SAB “found each and every one of the studies [showing no significant effects] to be fundamentally or methodologically flawed, some containing defects as egregious as allowing control and test subjects to intermix.” Since industry funded much of the latter research, this debate devolved into the all too familiar acrimonious discussions about conflict of interests, and even contained a published paper purported showing a relationship between funding source and results. From afar – I luckily had no involvement at all in any of this -- the debate seems to exemplify some issues bedeviling science in general and risk assessment in particular. Specifically, are scientists in general and the SAB in this specific case so poor at communicating to the public. Secondarily, what exactly are “conflicts of interests", who has the, and what effects do they likely have on science. Thirdly, what are professional ethics in the midst of debate about potentially important environmental risks. Thus, my talk will review this incident, give my best science view of what exactly the SAB said, and review current discussions of scientific ethics. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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