Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts
W2-K.1 Hassel, H; Johansson, J*; Lund University;
jonas.johansson@iea.lth.se
Mapping societal functions, flows and dependencies to
strengthen community resilience – results from an initial
study
Communities are becoming increasingly dependent on critical
societal functions and flows, such as energy supply,
transportation of goods and people, school and health care.
Dependencies between these functions and flows are also
increasing. These trends imply that disruptions in the functions
and flows may quickly lead to large societal consequences
through domino effects which may be very difficult to
understand and foresee. Understanding the functions, flows
and their dependencies is key in order to increase the resilience
of the communities. Gaining such an understanding requires
systematic mapping of relevant information and methods for
analysis. This paper presents a new method for mapping
societal functions, flows, and their dependencies. Such a
method is very useful as part of a comprehensive
community-level risk and vulnerability assessments. The
mapping is conducted by eliciting information from actors, both
public and private, that represent critical societal functions.
The mapping method is divided into three main parts: 1)
System-level mapping, including e.g. mapping values/objectives
for the system and what societal functions are contributing to
their achievement. 2) Function-specific mapping, including e.g.
mapping values/objectives for a specific function and what
activities that must be performed to achieve them, as well as
what flows are dependent on the activities and what the actor is
dependent on to be able to perform the activities), 3)
System-level aggregation, i.e. aggregating and synthesizing the
information from step 2 into a holistic picture of a community
or a region. The mapping method has been applied in an initial
study of public and private actors in a specific geographic
region (two different municipalities) in Sweden. From the initial
results a complex picture of functions, flows and dependencies
emerge which stresses the importance of these types of
methods to guide public and private policy makers in governing
risk and vulnerability.
M4-H.5 Hawkins, NL*; Elkins, DA; Janca , A; Simons, J;
Montezemolo, M; Piper, J; Lesely , T; Cox , P ; Susel , I ;
Brzymialkiewicz, C; Department of Homeland Security ;
natasha.hawkins@dhs.gov
DHS’ Risk-Informed Quadrennial Homeland Security
Review (QHSR)
The Department of Homeland Security is executing its Second
Quadrennial Homeland Security Review in 2013, as required by
law. As part of the initial Preparatory phase of the review, top
risks and risk insights were identified to inform leadership
discussion and guide QHSR studies and analysis. Risk analysis
is also required in the Study and Analysis phase of the review,
wherein the study teams must conduct risk characterizations to
achieve a baseline understanding of the risks within the study
mission space, and then analyze the costs and benefits of
alternative strategic approaches. Study groups will follow the
DHS Strategy Development and Analysis Process to arrive at
conclusions. We will discuss some of the lessons learned,
challenges, and innovative approaches developed to ensure the
continued advancement of DHS’s analysis to inform strategic
decisions.
W4-E.1 Hearl, FJ; National Institute for Occupational Safety
and Health; fjh1@cdc.gov
Pandemic Response for Workers: Controlling
Occupational Risk
Protecting the health of the workforce during a pandemic is
important to ensure the health of the nation. Protecting the
workforce involves selecting appropriate control measures and
begins with risk analysis. Control banding, used by industrial
hygienists typically for control of chemical substances, presents
a structured framework to guide control selection using
available data, observations, and assumptions based on past
experience and decision logic. The process described in this
paper is an adaption of the control banding model applied to
infectious disease. It is a tool to be used by risk assessors and
occupational health professionals to guide policymakers and
employers in selection of control options and responses over a
wide range of disease entities and job or task settings. The tool
is not designed to be applied mechanically without separately
giving full consideration to the peculiarities of individual
situations and other mitigating factors. These approaches
should be generalizable to other novel pathogens if sufficient
information is available on transmissibility and virulence.
W4-E.4 Hearl, F; Boelter, F; Armstrong, T; Rasmuson, J*;
Meier, A; CHEMISTRY & INDUSTRIAL HYGIENE, INC.;
Jim@c-ih.com
Risk of Occupational Asbestos Disease Based on
Biomarkers
The reliability of industrial hygiene estimation of cumulative
asbestos exposure to quantitatively predict risk of
asbestos-related mesothelioma and lung cancer, especially at
low exposure levels, is evaluated. This is accomplished by
examining the linearity and precision of industrial hygiene
cumulative asbestos exposure estimates via regression and
ANCOVA correlation analysis with pathological lung tissue
asbestos fiber burden and asbestos body analysis, including the
evaluation of the effect of fiber type. The results are reviewed
in terms of the most commonly applied quantitative asbestos
risk assessment models for mesothelioma and lung cancer, with
an emphasis on mesothelioma. The use of asbestos exposure
biomarkers, in general, to qualitatively characterize past
asbestos exposure and risk of disease is also reviewed, with
special emphasis placed on asbestos fiber type. Considerations
in the use of biomarkers, in general, to verify and validate
cumulative asbestos exposure estimates are offered.
December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD