Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts
M3-F.4 Lin, L; Lund University; lexin.lin@lucram.lu.se
Mapping the municipal risk information flow: A study
based on the practice of risk and vulnerability analysis in
Lund, Sweden
Many risks that societies face today are “systemic”.These risks
require a holistic approach,a coordinated effort from
stakeholders that cut across functional sectors and
geographical boundaries to foresee,prepare for and respond to
them.Effective risk communication is always considered to be a
core essential to successfully dealing with adverse events.This
is even more critical when stakeholders from different levels
and various disciplines are involved in the assessment and
management of risks.Whether risk information is being
effectively communicated among those stakeholders will affect
risk assessment results and management decisions,thus
influencing the ultimate performance of risk governance.In
Sweden, all municipalities are obligated by law to conduct risk
and vulnerability analysis(RVA),to ensure decision makers are
aware of risk and vulnerability,and to help them make
appropriate decisions.Conducting RVA and incorporating it into
practice are largely based on exchanging and disseminating
information about risks among authorities and organizations
who work together in assessing and governing risks.This paper
focuses on the risk communication among actors throughout
municipal risk-governance chain.By using the Swedish
municipality Lund as a case,the author explores the question of
how are issues concerning risk communicated among municipal
departments and their external service providers.A risk
governance perspective was used to analyze the empirical data
from 18 semi-structured interviews with all Lund’s municipal
departments, as well as with representatives of other
coordinating external service providers:water
company,electricity company,fire service company and the
police.Specific attention was directed to potential barriers to
information sharing.This study is especially relevant for actors
from all areas of society to reflect on their practices of risk
communication, thus improving their performance of risk
assessment and the quality of decision making.
P.31 LIN, YS*; GINSBERG, G; SONAWANE, B; US EPA;
Lin.yu-Sheng@Epa.gov
The Relationship of Mercury Exposure, Omega-3 Intake,
and Risk of Chronic Kidney Disease
Background: It remains unclear whether environmental
exposure to mercury (Hg) is associated with increased renal
risk, and whether omega-3 fatty acid (FA) intake could affect
Hg nephrotoxicity. Goal: To examine the relation of chronic
kidney disease (CKD) to blood Hg and omega-3 FAs. Methods:
The data were obtained from 1,046 adults aged 40 yrs or older
from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey
2003-4. Results: The adjusted odds ratio for increased CKD risk
in the highest tertile of blood Hg compared with the lowest was
2.96 (95% confidence interval= 1.05-8.39). Despite the role of
omega-3 FAs in modulating Hg nephrotoxicity, there was only a
marginal association between omega-3 FAs. Discussion: Hg
exposure is associated with CKD risk and additional studies are
needed to assess the role of omega-3 FAs and the sources,
exposure routes, and forms of Hg responsible for Hg
nephrotoxicity.
T1-G.3 Linkov, I*; Eisenberg, DA; Bates, ME; US ARMY
ENGINEER RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER,
VICKSBURG, MS, USA, CONTRACTOR TO THE US ARMY
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER, VICKSBURG, MS,
USA; Matthew.E.Bates@usace.army.mil
Resilience polices and applications to climate change
Escalating adverse events associated with climate change such
as natural disasters are reorienting national and local policies
to support managed resilience. Resilience is defined by
Merriam-Webster as: an ability to recover from or adjust easily
to misfortune or change. Advancing general knowledge and
application of resilience in complex socio-techno-ecological
systems (e.g. a city or military installation) offers a means to
address the unforeseen and cascading damages that climate
change can cause. As adaptive management strategies are a
key component of improving system resilience, other system
features such as network structure, data acquisition methods,
and decision models employed also determine how well the
system will adjust to adverse events. Therefore, improving the
resilience of these systems requires a combination of measures
associated with both the system’s engineered performance
under stress as well as policy and management structures that
support adverse event response and recovery. However, as
resilience has moved from an ecological and engineering
concept to application, there has been limited work addressing
whether policies or programs are successful at generating
climate change resilience. Moreover, linkages between the
impacts of climate change with damages to critical
infrastructure and cyber systems require that policies
developed outside the usual climate change purview adopt a
broader spectrum of strategies to support their resilience. In
this presentation, we discuss policies to address resilience at a
national and local level to compare perceived success and
failures with respect to both engineering performance and
adaptive management strategies.
T1-I.2 Liu, X*; Serrano, JA; Saat, MR; Christopher, CPL;
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; liu94@illinois.edu
Managing the Risk of Crude Oil Transportation by Rail
U.S. crude oil production has recently increased significantly in
part attribute to advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic
fracturing technologies. Consequently, this resulted in
considerable growth of crude oil shipment by rail. U.S. Class I
railroads originated 9,500 carloads of crude oil in 2008, and
this number had increased to 66,000 carloads in 2011.
Meanwhile, it may increase the risk of hazardous materials
release incidents. Risk management of rail crude oil
transportation has become increasingly urgent in light of
several recent severe release incidents in North America. To
assist the railroad industry in understanding the risk of
transporting crude oil and the effectiveness of various risk
reduction options, the Association of American Railroads
sponsored our research to enable estimation and reduction of
crude oil release risk. This presentation will describe a novel
risk analysis model involving the estimation of the probability
and consequence of crude oil release from train accidents. The
probability distribution of number of tank cars released is
estimated based on a series of conditional probabilities
accounting for a variety of principal infrastructure-related and
rolling-stock-related factors (such as train length, speed,
number and location of tank cars in the train, tank car
specification and accident cause). The consequence of a release
incident can be measured by affected population, which is
related to the number of tank car releases and the amount of
release. We model release consequence using simulation
methods on a geographic information system (GIS) platform.
Finally, we identify and evaluate the safety effectiveness of
several potential risk reduction strategies. The methodology
and analysis provide a quantitative approach that enables more
effective management of the environmental risk of transporting
hazardous materials.
December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD