Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

More documents

Recommendations

Info

SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts P.124 Bates, ME*; Shoaf, H; Keisler, JM; Dokukin, D; Linkov, I; US Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center; Matthew.E.Bates@usace.army.mil Using portfolio optimization to select an optimal set of water security countermeasures Counterterrorism decisions for infrastructure security can be challenging due to resource constraints and the large number and scope of potential targets and threats to consider. This poster presents a multi-criteria portfolio decision model (PDM) that optimizes countermeasure selection to maximize effectiveness under various counter-terrorism budget levels. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is used to assess the holistic benefits of protective countermeasures when applied to key infrastructure in specific threat environments. Resulting scores, cost estimates, and synergistic/redundant interactions between projects are used to construct an efficient funding frontier that tracks how budget changes affect optimal portfolio composition. Results are presented for a case study based on literature data and author judgment optimizing protection against terrorist threats to a water supply network. W2-B.1 Bateson, T; US EPA; bateson.thomas@epamail.epa.gov Sources of uncertainty in epidemiological studies and their impact on human health risk assessments : ILSI’s Health and Environmental Science Institute identified the evaluation of causality in epidemiological studies as an emerging science priority in 2010. A multidisciplinary subcommittee of experts convened in RTP, NC in October of 2012 to stimulate a dialogue on the methods and issues related to evaluating causality and interpreting evidence from published epidemiological studies within the context of human health risk assessment. One of three workshop breakout groups was charged with characterizing the key sources of uncertainty in environmental and occupational epidemiological studies that inform risk assessments. Experts from academia, government and industry developed specific recommendations on strengthening epidemiological data for use in human health risk assessments. Ideally, a complete analysis of uncertainty would appear in every epidemiologic study, meta-analysis, toxicology/MoA study, and risk assessment. This is undoubtedly an unrealistic expectation, and reality will be driven by resources and specific needs. At a minimum, each study should acknowledge uncertainty and discuss, at least qualitatively, the likely direction and magnitude of error. As a defined goal, every study should incorporate a quantitative sensitivity analysis to examine individual factors and a conjoint analysis of factors. As an ideal, studies should incorporate a quantitative multi-source uncertainty analysis. This approach to case-by-case, tiered analysis is analogous to the discussion in the “Silver Book” (NRC 2009, page 103) with quantitative uncertainty analysis representing the “top tier.” In short, a framework for addressing uncertainty should ultimately include a comprehensive approach to individual studies, meta-analyses, toxicology, MoA, and risk assessment. Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the US EPA. W2-D.1 Batz, MB*; Robertson, LJ; van der Giessen, JW; Dixon, BR; Caipo, ML; Kojima, M; Cahill, S; University of Florida; mbatz@ufl.edu Ranking Foodborne Parasites: Outcomes of an Expert-based Multi-Criteria Analysis In December 2010, the Codex Committee on Food Hygiene (CCFH) requested that the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) provide the Committee with “guidance on the parasite-commodity combinations of particular concern.” FAO and WHO initiated a series of activities to provide this guidance. Foodborne parasites cause a high burden of infectious disease globally, yet generally do not receive the same amount of attention as other microbiological and chemical hazards in food. Data on disease incidence and transmission routes are lacking, a problem exasperated by symptoms that may be latent or chronic. During a weeklong expert workshop, held in Rome in September 2012, a multi-criteria decision analytic approach was developed and applied. Experts screened an initial list of 95 parasites down to 24 and identified food pathways for each. Seven criteria were identified for parasite scoring, and defined using quantitative metrics where possible: disease prevalence, global distribution, disease emergence, morbidity severity, case-fatality ratio, trade relevance, and socio-economic impact. Each parasite was scored by groups of five along these criteria, with revisions following full-group discussions. Groups provided weights for combining criteria into risk scores, which were computed, averaged across groups, and ranked. Top-ranked parasites included Taenia solium, Echinococcus granulosus, E. multilocularis, Toxoplasma gondii, Cryptosporidium, Entamoeba histolytica, Trichinella spiralis, Opisthorchiidae, Ascaris, and Trypanosoma cruzi. Rankings were largely driven by public health impact over other criteria. This multi-criteria ranking is the first of its kind for global foodborne parasites, and served as a useful, systematic, and open approach to providing policy guidance. The approach itself has broader applications, as it could be adapted for regional or national use, or expanded to other infectious diseases. W3-F.4 Baum, S; Global Catastrophic Risk Institute; seth@gcrinstitute.org The resilience of human civilization in the face of global catastrophes Resilience can be defined as the ability of a system to withstand disruptions and return to its initial state. Resilience concepts have contributed much to risk analysis. This presentation applies resilience concepts to risks to the global human system, including global catastrophes that threaten human extinction. Research on global catastrophic risk has focused on the possibility of catastrophes and how to prevent them. But if human civilization is sufficiently resilient, then survivors may be able to maintain or rebuild civilization. This possibility has important implications for global catastrophic risk policy now, i.e. prior to catastrophes. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts W3-J.1 Baxter, J.*; Robinson, L.; Metz, D.; Bolthrunis, S.; Industrial Economics Inc. (Baxter, Metz, and Bolthrunis); Havard School of Public Health (Robinson); jbaxter@indecon.com Quantitative Adjustments Addressing Under-reporting of Baseline Risks Associated With Recreational Boating Using National Health Care Databases The United States Coast Guard requires a reliable range of estimates on the number of fatalities and injuries that result from recreational boating accidents, and on the monetary value of these fatalities and injuries as well as property damages. It currently collects these data in the Boating Accident Report Database (BARD) system, and uses this information to guide boating safety policy and regulation. We present the results of an analysis quantifying the extent to which BARD may under-report fatalities and injuries using well-established national databases of deaths, hospitalizations, emergency department visits, and doctor’s office visits. Our results suggest BARD may under count less severe injuries by more than two orders of magnitude. We also evaluate the importance of these missing data to policy development, considering the relative values of reducing injury risks of varying levels of severity. T4-D.1 Beaudrie, CB*; Kandlikar, M; Long, G; Gregory, R; Wilson, T; Satterfield, T; Compass Resource Management Ltd.; cbeaudrie@compassrm.com Nanotechnology Risk Screening using a Structured Decision Making (SDM) Approach The responsible development of new nanomaterials and nano-enabled products requires that potential risks are understood and managed before harmful implications occur. Nonetheless, quantitative and predictive tools for anticipating risk are still in their early stages of development. Until such assessment tools are available, there is a clear need for a robust screening methodology to inform nanomaterial risk management decision-making in regulatory agencies and industry. This paper presents the results of a two-day workshop of nanotechnology experts aimed at building an expert judgment-based risk screening framework for emerging nanomaterials. Drawing upon expertise in nanotoxicology, human exposure, and environmental fate and transport, participants developed an adaptive framework relating key nanomaterial physicochemical characteristics to important hazard and exposure indicators. This framework provides the foundation for development of an open-sourced tool to aid in risk screening and identifying opportunities to re-engineer products to minimize risk. M3-B.4 Beck, NB; American Chemistry Council; nancy_Beck@americanchemistry.com Discussion: Pulling the Pieces Together This part of the program (the last talk of the double session) will be a discussion and questions-and-answers session to more fully tie the seven previous talks together and to explore the similarities/differences and benefits of each of the approaches that have been discussed. T2-B.4 becker, RA*; Olden, K; becker, richard; Author 1) Becker (American Chemistry Council); Author 2) Olden (US Environmental Protection Agency); rick_becker@americanchemistry.com Progress Made in Improving IRIS: A Panel Discussion Presenters and additional experts, drawn from EPA, academia, non-governmental organizations and industry, will participate in a discussion that will include audience question and answers. Discussion will include perspectives on changes that have already been made, plans EPA has announced for making further changes and areas where additional improvements would strengthen IRIS. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
Page 1 and 2: SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts W
Page 3 and 4: SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts P
Page 5 and 6: SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts T
Page 7 and 8: SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts M
Page 9: SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts T
Page 61 and 62:
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts M
Page 63 and 64:
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts P
Page 65 and 66:
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts T
Page 67 and 68:
Page 69 and 70:
Page 71 and 72:
Page 73 and 74:
Page 75 and 76:
Page 77 and 78:
Page 79 and 80:
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts W
Page 81 and 82:
Page 83 and 84:
Page 85 and 86:
Page 87 and 88:
Page 89 and 90:
Page 91 and 92:
Page 93 and 94:
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
Page 105 and 106:
Page 107 and 108:
Page 109 and 110:
Page 111 and 112:
Page 113 and 114:
Page 115 and 116:
Page 117 and 118:
Page 119 and 120:
Page 121 and 122:
Page 123 and 124:
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
show all

Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?