Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts P.44 Oka, T; Fukui Prefectural University; oka@fpu.ac.jp Cost-effectiveness of the decontamination activities in the evacuation zones due to the Fukushima nuclear accident Under the Act on Special Measures Concerning the Handling of Radioactive Pollution, the areas contaminated with radioactive materials due to the accident of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station are broken down into two categories: i) Special Decontamination Area, which consists of the areas located in 20km radius from Fukushima Daiich Power Station and of the areas where annual cumulative dose could be more than 20mSv, and ii) Intensive Contamination Survey Area, in which over 1mSv/y of additional exposure dose were observed. We have estimated costs and effectiveness of the decontamination works being implemented in the Special Decontamination Area, by specifying the decontamination method for houses and buildings, agricultural lands, forests, and roads, by assuming efficiencies of the methods, and on the basis of the data on land-use in each 1km mesh. Effects of decontamination appear as reductions in air dose rate, from which reductions in cumulative dose in a year are calculated assuming a value for occupancy/shielding factor. Taking into account the return ratio of the evacuated people as a function of cumulative dose in a year, which has been estimated from questionnaire surveys of the municipalities in the affected area, the effects of decontamination are represented by reductions in the cumulative dose taking the return ratio into account, which are measured by the integral from the dose after decontamination to the dose before it of the return ratio with respect to the dose. These values are converted into reductions in the loss of life-expectancy due to the exposure in the next 30 years, which produce, when combined with the costs of decontamination, values for cost per life-year saved. The result for the cost per life-year saved is 5 billion yen on the average over the total area (ranging from 10^8 to 10^12 yen) when the occupancy/shielding factor is 0.6. The relation of the cost-effectiveness to the level of contamination depends on the value for the occupancy/shielding factor. P.97 Okada, T*; Inaba, T; Hitotsubashi University; sd121003@g.hit-u.ac.jp Exploring the impact of negative emotions on information seeking about radioactive food contamination in Japan after March 11, 2011 Although previous research shows that negative emotions can increase information seeking, few have examined the qualitative outcomes of this behavior. The nature of these outcomes is crucial, for if people receive biased information or if acquire incorrect knowledge, the uninformed may suffer. Thus, we explore the extent, viewpoints (negative or positive) of information sought, and the knowledge gleaned by anxiety- and anger-induced information search on measures of radioactive food contamination. After the March,2011 nuclear power plant accident in Japan,the government has monitored the radioactivity of foods produced in affected areas and bans shipments if levels exceed scientifically established legal limits. But widespread skepticism remains as to whether food within those limits is truly safe. Survey data (N=800) provided the following results. First, anxious people were more likely to seek news from many sources. Next, anxiety increased exposure to negative views about legal standards for food radioactivity, while anger led to more exposure to positive views, no significant effect of emotions was found on knowledge of food safety. Although anxiety was positively related to knowledge of the impact of low-dose radiation on health (government-provided information frequently reported shortly after the accident), no relationship was found between emotions and knowledge of rationales for changed legal standards or their implementation. Finally, the model was not significant in predicting whether or not one’s understanding of the changing legal standards was accurate. These results imply that each emotion influences the quality of information seeking differently, and that irrespective of the number of news sources sought, they tend to be biased toward negative views. Further, while anxiety may direct attention to news about potential harm, the timing and characteristics of the reported news may be critical to the economic consequences of that information seeking. T4-E.4 Okelo, PO*; Hooberman, B; Graber, G; Bartholomew, MJ; Stewart, KN; FDA Center for Veterinary Medicine; FDA Office of Foods and Veterinary Medicine; AFSS Consulting; FDA Center for Veterinary Medicine; FDA Center for Veterinary Medicine; mary.bartholomew@fda.hhs.gov Risk-Ranking Model for Hazards in Animal Feed The FDA Center for Veterinary Medicine is developing a semi-quantitative model that ranks health risks to animals and humans associated with animal feed hazards. Explanatory variables to represent two components of the risk model namely health consequence and exposure components were selected as follows. Risk Score = Health Consequence Score (HCS) x Exposure Score (ES), where: HCS = Severity of Illness Score (SIS) x Likelihood of Illness Score (LIS). The variables were then characterized and rated as follows. Severity of illness variables: 1) organ system (e.g., renal, respiratory, cardiovascular), 2) signs and symptoms severity (e.g. low, moderate, high), and 3) signs and symptoms duration (e.g., < 1 day, 2-5 days, > 5 days). Likelihood of illness variables: 1) safe exposure level (e.g., high, moderate, low), and 2) agent stability (e.g., low, moderate, high). Exposure variables: 1) contamination rate (e.g., low, moderate, high), 2) manufacturing effect (e.g., high, moderate, low, no effect), 3) post processing control (e.g., in control, out-of-control), proportion of animals consuming feed (e.g., small, medium, large), and 4) feed consumption frequency (e.g., once a day, 3 times a day, ad libitum). The model was implemented on a user-friendly Excel spreadsheet platform that prompts the user to select from a list of qualitative statements and/or to provide quantitative data concerning the identified explanatory variables with respect to a specific species-feed-hazard combination. An algorithm written into the spreadsheet converts the qualitative inputs into numerical values, which are combined with the quantitative inputs in a series of logical steps using standard mathematical spreadsheet functions. The results are used to generate indices of animal and human health risk. We will walk through the model to develop a risk score for one animal feed hazard. T4-F.3 Okwesili, P*; Mazzuchi, T; Sarkani, S; George Washington University; okwesp@gwu.edu A Risk Assessment for an Informed Decision-making for Non-traditional Pharmacy Compounding The recent multi-state outbreak of fungal meningitis, and other infections, has killed 53 people and sickened over 733 people across 20 states to date. The multi-state outbreak linked to the non-traditional compounding pharmacy in Framingham, Massachusetts, demonstrates the need for more rigorous regulatory oversight of compounding pharmacies. This most recent outbreak is one of over 240 incidents reported to FDA associated with improperly compounded products over the last two decades. The regulation of pharmacy compounding has proven challenging because non-traditional compounders act more like pharmaceutical manufacturers, than traditional compounding pharmacies. Some of these pharmacies prepare medicines in large volume production and ship across state lines while claiming the protections of traditional compounding pharmacies, which are subject to state regulations, and not directly regulated by federal oversight. In her congressional testimony in November 2012, FDA Commissioner Dr. Margaret Hamburg proposed a three-tiered policy framework for a risk-based regulatory system that will make non-traditional compounding subject to federal safety and quality standards. Those tiers are 1) Manufacturers, 2) Traditional Pharmacy Compounders, and 3) Non-traditional Pharmacy Compounders. To address the challenge associated with the policy-making for the non-traditional pharmacy compounding tier, the authors identify the critical risk factors of non-traditional pharmacy compounding, assess their degree of influence of these risk factors on the likelihood of experiencing an adverse event, and analyze their impact on public health. This is accomplished using a Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) approach and Multi-Objective Decision trees (MODT) to create an integrated method to analyze the critical risk factors that can be used in a decision-making framework. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts T1-B.1 Olden, K*; Vandenberg, J; Kadry, A; Deener, K; US Government; kadry.abdel@epa.gov Advancing Human Health Risk Assessment at the United States Environmental Protection Agency There are currently more than 80,000 chemicals in commerce, and an additional 1,000 new chemicals are introduced each year. Only a small fraction of these chemicals have been adequately assessed for potential risk. Human health risk assessment (HHRA) is a critical tool for characterizing the potential risk to human health of exposure to environmental contaminants. To produce defensible, scientific assessments of risk and therefore make defensible decisions to manage or mitigate risk, risk assessors and managers need scientifically rigorous information about hazard, dose-response and exposure. EPA’s HHRA research program develops health assessments that include hazard identification and dose-response information; exposure and risk assessment tools; and methods to advance the science of human health risk assessment. This information is used by EPA and others to make decisions, develop regulatory standards for environmental contaminants, and manage cleanups. The HHRA program is committed to generating timely, credible human health assessments of individual chemicals and chemical mixtures to support priority EPA risk management decisions, thereby enabling EPA to better predict and prevent risk. The program is compromised of four research themes: 1) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health hazard and dose-response assessments; (2) Integrated Science Assessments (ISAs) of criteria air pollutants; (3) Community Risk and Technical Support for exposure and health assessments; and (4) Methods, models, and approaches to modernize risk assessment for the 21st century. The HHRA research program collaborates with Agency, federal, state, regional, national, and international partners in the scientific and risk assessment communities to ensure that assessment products are scientifically rigorous, developed in a transparent manner, and relevant to stakeholder needs. The views expressed in this abstract do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. P.146 Ollison, W*; Capel, J; Johnson, T; 1 - American Petroleum Institute, 1220 L Street, NW, Washington, DC 20005; 2 - Consultant, 1005 Demerius Street, Durham, NC 27701; 3 - TRJ Environmental, Inc., 713 Shadylawn Road, Chapel Hill, NC 27914; ollisonw@api.org Sensitivity of regulatory ozone risk assessment to improved exposure and response models We evaluate the sensitivity of EPA’s current ozone (O3) exposure model (APEX) to (1) alternative pulmonary function response models, (2) attainment AQ rollback approaches, (3) altitude effects, and (4) newly measured O3 penetration/deposition rates and microenvironmental (ME) factors, corrected for O3 measurement error. Results are provided for Denver air quality (AQ) scenarios representing 2006 “as is” conditions and the attainment of the current ozone NAAQS. We test recently published pulmonary function models that incorporate realistic O3 response thresholds and subject response variability proportional to the level of response. A CAMx model is used to adjust 2006 Denver AQ to simulate NAAQS attainment conditions. The modeled rollback projections account for NOx control-related increases in urban and background O3 levels from reduced NO-O3 titration that are not addressed by EPA’s quadratic rollback approach. Inhaled O3 mass is adjusted to account for altitude acclimation among Denver residents. Impacts of newly measured indoor O3 penetration-deposition rates on estimated responses are compared to projections using current APEX indoor mass-balance model assumptions. APEX ME factors are also adjusted according to recent field measurements made using new interference-free O3 photometers. Cumulative impacts of these updated components in the APEX exposure analysis are tabulated and compared to those of the current APEX model. W2-H.4 Olson, KC*; Karvetski, CW; George Mason University; kolson8@gmu.edu Probabilistic Coherence Weighting for Increasing Accuracy of Expert Judgment In this presentation, we provide a new way to generate accurate probability estimates from a group of diverse judges. The experiments we report involve elicitation of probability estimates that belong to sets in which only one probability is of primary interest; the other estimates serve to measure the individual judges' coherence within sets. These experiments extend previous efforts to increase accuracy of aggregate estimates by weighting probabilistic forecasts according to their coherence. Our method shows that asking for only two additional judgments can achieve significant increases in accuracy over a simple average. In the aggregation, we adjust the judgments of each participant to be coherent and calculate weights for the judgments based on the earlier incoherence across all participants. More generally, our findings provide insight into the trade-off between methods that aim to increase accuracy of judgments by improving their coherence with experimental manipulations and methods that leverage the incoherence of judgments to increase accuracy during aggregation. Our two studies show that concurrent judgments of related probabilities produce more accurate equal-weight averages but have less incoherence on which our coherence weighting operates. However, independent judgments of related probabilities produce less accurate linear averages but have more incoherence on which our coherence weighting can capitalize. M3-I.3 Orosz, M*; Salazar, D; chatterjee, S; Wei, D; Zhao, Y; University of Southern California; mdorosz@isi.edu Using PortSec for policy-making and risk-benefit balancing Seaports, airports, and other transportation nodal points face many challenges – including maximizing operational efficiency, minimizing risk from terrorism or other man-made and natural disaster events and minimizing impacts to the environment. Often these challenges are at odds with one another – increasing one often comes at the expense of achieving others. This is particularly true in our Nation’s seaport infrastructures where there is a need to secure the ports but not at the expense of maintaining port operations. The University of Southern California’s National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) is developing PortSec – Port Security Risk Analysis and Resource Allocation System. Under funding from DHS S&T and in collaboration with the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach (POLA/LB) and the USCG, USC is currently extending a previously developed proof-of-concept PortSec prototype used for tactical security decision-making into a tool that allows decision-makers to examine the trade-offs in implementing security measures to protect the port and support continued movement of shipped goods. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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