Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts
M2-I.1 Pant, R*; Thacker, S; Hall, JW; Barr, S; Alderson, D;
University of Oxford,University of Oxford,University of
Oxford,Newcastle University, Newcastle University;
raghav.pant@ouce.ox.ac.uk
Building an integrated assessment methodology for
national infrastructure risk assessment due to climate
hazards
For modern cities addressing critical infrastructure risk has
become very relevant from a safety and security point of view.
As seen in recent times, among the different shocks that
large-scale infrastructures are exposed to climate hazards have
the potential of causing the most widespread disruptions. As
such it is important to have an understanding of the risks due
to extreme climate events if we plan towards future
infrastructure protection and sustainable. In this research we
have developed a national infrastructure risk assessment tool
that improves our understanding of interdependent
infrastructure failures and provides answers to important
aspects of damage propagation across infrastructures. The risk
assessment tool estimates some key aspects of spatial
infrastructure risk which include finding: (1) The scenarios and
probabilities of national infrastructure failures; (2) The
locations of key vulnerabilities in national infrastructure
networks; (3) The implications of interdependent failure
propagation; (4) The consequences of national infrastructure
failures; (5) The sensitivity of the national infrastructures to
multiple climate loading conditions and system states. We
provide a demonstration of the risk assessment tool through
some initial analysis of interdependent national-scale energy
and transport networks risk analysis. The outcomes of such
analysis provide important insights into critical infrastructure
protection and risk management.
W3-H.1 Park, J*; Son, M; Park, C; Richardson, H; State
University of New York at Buffalo; jp292@buffalo.edu
Hurricane Sandy and Lost Four Days in the U.S. Economy
Measuring economic impacts stemming from various natural
disasters is an increasingly common interest in the U.S. Even
since the U.S. economy experienced severe losses from the two
hurricanes which consecutively hit the Gulf of Mexico coast in
August 2005, we are still experiencing similar damage every
year. The recent Hurricane Sandy is one of the greatest storms
ever to hit the U.S. The recent physical disruptions and
environmental damages caused by Hurricane Sandy
demonstrate the fragility of NYC and Long Island in terms of
built and natural environmental systems, having prompted the
discussion of constructing seawalls and other coastal barriers
around the shorelines of the NYC and Long Island area in order
to minimize the risk of destructive consequences from another
such event in the future. Unfortunately, the majority of these
types of studies has depended upon governmental reports,
focusing on the magnitude of direct building losses or on
speculations about future impacts on a damaged area.
However, these economic impact readings have not accounted
for indirect effects via economic and trade linkages, even
though most direct economic losses lead to further economic
losses via inter-industrial and inter-regional economic relations.
This study connected coastal hazards to economic impacts
using the lost jobs during the first four days affected by Sandy
available from a Census data source applied to the NIEMO
model. While New Jersey and Connecticut are two other States
seriously affected, we analyzed what economic impacts using
short-term job losses associated with Sandy, tracing Sandy’s
moving path from Florida to New Hampshire. Since Hurricanes
Katrina and Rita, we found Sandy had brought another tragedy
mainly to the NYC and Long Island areas, reaching $2.8 billion
in four days with 99% of the loss occurring in the last day of
Sandy. Furthermore, the national impacts attained $10 billion
losses as suggested by the NIEMO inter-industrial and
inter-regional economic model.
P.32 Parker, AL*; Nance, PM; Maier, A; Toxicology Excellence
for Risk Assessment; parker@tera.org
Workplace Environmental Exposure Level (WEEL)
Methodology with Octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane (D4) as a
Case Study
Workplace Environmental Exposure Levels (WEELs) are
health-based guide values for chemical stressors developed by a
volunteer group of professional experts known as the WEEL
Committee. The WEEL committee is a collaborative initiative
with the goal of promoting worker health protection through
increased access to high quality occupational exposure limits,
enhancements in methods for establishing worker-health
exposure guidelines, and education and training in occupational
risk assessment methods. A WEEL is intended to be an airborne
chemical concentration to which nearly all workers may be
repeatedly exposed, for a working lifetime, without
experiencing adverse health effects. WEELs are derived using
scientifically sound, state-of-the-art risk assessment procedures
and a multi-tiered review process. An extensive review of all
available relevant information of sufficient quality is used in the
development of a WEEL. The Committee only considers
developing WEELs where no valid guidance exists for chemical
exposure. Candidate chemicals are identified from various
sources including HPV (USEPA High Production Volume lists)
and those solicited from stakeholders. A new stakeholder
process allows interest groups or companies to request the
development of a WEEL for a specific chemical of interest
through the Occupational Alliance for Risk Science (OARS)
initiative. The first stakeholder sponsored WEEL for
octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane (D4) is in the final steps of this
new process. The new WEEL and all other WEELS developed
through OARS will be provided at no cost on the OARS website.
P.121 Parra, LM*; Munoz, F; Universidad de los Andes;
lm.parra71@uniandes.edu.co
QUANTITATIVE APPROACH TO RISK ON FUEL
TRANSPORTATION PIPELINES
Hazardous materials transportation by pipeline is a widespread
practice in the industry all over the world. It is socially
accepted as favorable, however, like any other industrial
practice is dangerous and represents risks to the society, the
environment and infrastructure. Since production sites are
often away from consumption centers, increased demand in
Colombia and the world has led to increased transportation
needs, forcing the growth of the pipeline network. Performing
risk analysis before incidents occur, can provide engineering
tools to support decision making, regarding the compatibility of
activities within a territory. This type of analysis examines the
information related to the consequences of a critical event, as
radiant or overpressure effects that can affect communities in
the vicinity of industrial facilities. This work consists of the
development of a methodology for risk assessment and
evaluation of societal and individual risk associated with fuel
pipelines related to accidental events. This work includes the
study of past events in Colombia and Latin America, as well as
an analysis of the causes and types of events. As risks values
vary along pipelines due to differences in environmental and
societal conditions, analysis is performed for segments of a
pipeline. In order to have manageable segments of pipeline to
develop the analysis a dynamic method for segmenting is
proposed. Individual and societal risk is estimated for each
segment, identifying those which require priority actions.
Societal risk values are defined as curves with frequency of
accidents vs. expected number of fatalities. The last part of this
work is the proposal of risk criteria, to support decision-making
in Colombia with respect to land-use planning. This may
generate tools to support decision making and resolve whether
risk values can be reduced.
December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD