Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

More documents

Recommendations

Info

SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts P.49 Yuyama, A*; Kajitani, Y; Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry; yuyama@criepi.denken.or.jp Recovery estimation model of thermal power plants damaged by complex hazards -Case of the 2011 Tohoku-oki Earthquake The 2011 Tohoku-oki Earthquake and the resulting nuclear accidents at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant has caused power shortages in Japan. 18 thermal power plants (39 units) located in Kanto and Tohoku region were affected by earthquake and tsunami and, as a result, about 30% of thermal power generation capacity in East Japan was lost. This was the most severe accident in thermal power plants in Japan and became one of the main causes of the power crisis. In order to secure stable power supply, restoration of the damaged plants was carried out immediately after the disaster as well as other remedial measures such as installation of emergency power sources. All affected plants except one scrapped unit have resumed operation by April 2013. Clarifying damage and recovery mechanism of thermal power plants due to such large scale, complex hazards is necessary for the analysis of power shortage risk for future disasters. Thus, we examine the relationships between recovery duration and various factors such as observed seismic ground motion, tsunami height, failure mode, and restoration policy. In addition to these internal factors, it is shown that the damage situation of infrastructure that plants depend on such as the disruption of industrial water supply could delay the restoration. M4-G.5 Zacharias, CA*; Bronfman, NC; Cifuentes, LA; Jimenez, RB; Pontificia Universidad Catolica De Chile; cazachar@uc.cl A longitudinal study of risk perception: The case of Chile Chile has experienced several social and cultural changes during the last 15 years. Per-capita income growth and political stability have placed Chile in a leading position, becoming the first South American country to join the OECD in 2010. Development has produced many changes in society. Social ills are a now primary concern, leading to laws controlling abuse of alcohol and drugs, and to efforts to reduce inequality in health and educational services. Environmental concerns have switched somehow from local and regional problems, such as particulate air pollution and wastewater pollution to global issues, such as climate change. Also, natural disasters have affected the population. In 2010, Chile suffered an 8.9 magnitude earthquake and tsunami, something not experienced by the Chilean population since 1960. With all these changes, it is expected that public risk perception might have changed. The main objective of this investigation is to assess the change in risk perception in the last decade. To achieve this, we characterized current public concerns and perceptions of risk, and contrasted them with those quantified and reported a decade ago by the study of Bronfman and Cifuentes (2003). Based on the psychometric paradigm, and using a similar survey to the one implemented before, we studied the differences in perceptions of risk, benefit and acceptability for 40 activities, substances or technologies. Differences in risk perceptions regarding natural hazards, environmental hazards and social ills were studied and analyzed. Additionally, geographical and socio-economical differences were explored, and differences between laypeople and experts’ risk perceptions where also investigated. P.85 Zacharias, C.A.; Jimenez, R.B.*; Bronfman, N.C.; Universidad Andres Bello; rjimenez@unab.cl Improving natural disaster risk communication strategies: Characterizing public trust in institutions involved in natural disaster management in Chile In recent years, natural disasters in Chile have tested the response capacity of local authorities, revealing significant weaknesses in the way that the these risks are currently assessed, managed and communicated to the public. Several studies suggest that public trust in institutions in charge of managing complex risks such as natural disasters, has a significant influence on public attitudes towards decisions and initiatives that emerge from such institutions. Therefore, the development of effective natural disaster communication strategies must address public concerns, preferences and levels of public trust in relevant actors in disaster prevention, warning and response. So far, the extent to which Chilean trust local institutions in charge of communicating and informing the community about natural disaster risks remains unknown. To fill this void, this study aimed at characterizing the degree of public trust in institutions responsible for risk communication and education of natural hazards in Chile. Chileans’ trust in ten institutions with relevant roles in natural disaster risk communication in Chile (government, scientific community, NGOs and others) will be characterized using a survey. For each institution, participants will rate a set of six observable variables that account for two dimension of institutional trust (competence-based trust and integrity-based trust) using a 5-point Likert scale. The survey will be implemented in July 2013. To better represent Chilean population, this survey will be administered in four major Chilean cities: Iquique, Santiago, Valparaiso and Concepcion. Data from the survey will be analyzed using descriptive statistics and confirmatory factor analysis. Results from the present study will provide a useful tool for decision makers in natural disaster risk management, especially for relevant actors and governmental agencies in charge of developing and implementing risk communication, information and education strategies. T3-E.2 Zaleski, R*; Gaborek, BJ; Qian, H; Bellin, CA; Dellarco, M; Egeghy, P; Heard, N; Jolliet, O; Lander, DR; Tanir, JY; ExxonMobil Biomedical Sciences, Inc.; rosemary.t.zaleski@exxonmobil.com Exposure Bands for Tiered Exposure Assessment Decision-Making A goal of the ILSI Health and Environmental Sciences Institute’s RISK21 project is to move risk assessment forward into the 21st Century, including maximizing and extending use of available data and tools. One objective is to assess if available exposure data and tools can be utilized in a “high-throughput” methodology analogous to advancements in toxicological sciences. To meet this goal, RISK21 has explored the applicability of exposure banding using existing exposure tools and data as an early tier in the overall RISK21 approach. Exposure banding in this context refers to the grouping of substances based on attributes such as physicochemical properties and activities/uses and predicting corresponding exposure concentrations associated with these attributes. Available exposure models and approaches were evaluated and several were identified that could readily be used to develop exposure bands: the European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals Targeted Risk Assessment (ECETOC –TRA) tool (worker and consumer); European Solvent Industry Group’s Generic Exposure Scenario Risk and Exposure Tool (EGRET) (consumer); and the European Union System for the Evaluation of Substances (EUSES)-based approach of Verdonck et al. (environmental). Look-up tables of exposure and/or risk bands were developed based upon these tools and evaluated for utility within the RISK21 tiered exposure framework. Strengths, limitations and areas for future refinement that could advance this type of approach will also be discussed. This abstract does not necessarily reflect U.S. EPA policy. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts M4-E.1 Zaleski, RT*; Qian, H; Money, CM; Rohde, A; ExxonMobil Biomedical Sciences Inc., CONCAWE; rosemary.t.zaleski@exxonmobil.com Specific Consumer Exposure Determinants (SCEDs) for fuel and lubricant scenarios Under REACH, classified substances produced in more than 10 tons per year require the development of exposure scenarios to ensure the safe use conditions of the substance and, further, communicate these conditions in the supply chain. The European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals Targeted Risk Assessment tool (ECETOC TRA) is a preferred screening tier exposure model for REACH, to assist in identifying safe use conditions. Consistent with REACH, the TRA is intentionally parameterized with conservative defaults for a broad range of consumer product uses. Because of the inherent conservatism of REACH process, much industry effort has been dedicated to better understanding consumer exposure determinants and strengthening the documentation and public availability of information supporting their basis. As part of the revised TRAv3 (released in 2012), ECETOC developed the concept of Specific Consumer Exposure Determinants (SCEDs) to facilitate the delivery of more realistic estimates of consumer exposure. The SCED enables industrial sector groups and trade associations to use available information on consumer use habits and practices to further refine the consumer exposure estimate for the product/substance. Based on recent public data, we have developed 9 SCEDs to cover a range of consumer fuel use scenarios and 4 SCEDs to better describe consumer lubricant use scenarios. The changes to the TRA defaults in these SCEDs help to more accurately describe current consumer uses in practice while retaining a conservative approach to the assessment of risk presented by each scenario. The Downstream Users of Chemical Coordination group (DUCC) is extending this concept to compile a library of SCEDs covering a range of consumer product sectors. The intent are that these materials, which will be public, can better describe the nature of current consumer exposures through various tools such as the TRA and the European Chemical Agency’s Chemical Safety Assessment and Reporting tool (CHESAR). M2-E.3 Zang, Y*; Carrington , CD; US FDA-CFSAN; Janet.Zang@fda.hhs.gov Cadmium: Parameters for the Estimation of Global Burden of Disease Cadmium is a toxic element widely distributed in foods. World Health Organization (WHO)’s Foodborne Disease Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) has listed cadmium as one of the priority chemical hazards. To calculate cadmium-attributable disability-adjusted life year (DALY), it is essential to estimate the incidence of cadmium-related diseases around the world. Based on a thorough weight of evidence analysis and the disability weight information from the WHO Global Burden of Disease report (GBD 2010), two cadmium-associated disease endpoints were selected: 1) stage 4-5 chronic renal disease (CKD), caused by the reduction of glomerular filtration rate (GFR); and 2) fracture, caused by the reduction of bone-mass density (BMD). Since cadmium-attributable disease rates are not available, an exposure-based method was used to indirectly estimate the incidence rates. First, cadmium exposures in different global regions were collected from the published urinary cadmium (U-Cd) levels as well as from the WHO GEMS/Food database. Based on the dose-response relationships between cadmium exposure and GFR or BMD, the magnitude of reduction in GFR or BMD were calculated for different global regions based on their exposure data. Next, the incidence rate of cadmium-attributable CKD stage 4-5 can be derived by calculating the distributional shift of GFR into
Page 1 and 2:
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts W
Page 3 and 4:
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts P
Page 5 and 6:
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts T
Page 7 and 8:
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts M
Page 9 and 10:
Page 11 and 12:
Page 13 and 14:
Page 15 and 16:
Page 17 and 18:
Page 19 and 20:
Page 21 and 22:
Page 23 and 24:
Page 25 and 26:
Page 27 and 28:
Page 29 and 30:
Page 31 and 32:
Page 33 and 34:
Page 35 and 36:
Page 37 and 38:
Page 39 and 40:
Page 41 and 42:
Page 43 and 44:
Page 45 and 46:
Page 47 and 48:
Page 49 and 50:
Page 51 and 52:
Page 53 and 54:
Page 55 and 56:
Page 57 and 58:
Page 59 and 60:
Page 61 and 62:
Page 63 and 64:
Page 65 and 66:
Page 67 and 68:
Page 69 and 70:
Page 71 and 72:
Page 73 and 74:
Page 75 and 76:
Page 77 and 78:
Page 79 and 80:
Page 81 and 82:
Page 83 and 84:
Page 85 and 86: SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts M
Page 87 and 88: SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts P
Page 91 and 92: SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts W
Page 93 and 94: SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts T
Page 135: SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts W
show all

Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?