Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts P.15 Willis, AM*; Maier, A; Reichard, J; Haber, L; Patterson, J; Toxicology Excellence for Risk Assessment (TERA); Willis@TERA.org Practice makes perfect: Lessons and outcomes based on mode of action/human relevance framework application to case studies. A public workshop, organized by a Steering Committee of scientists from government, industry, university, and research organizations, was held at the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) in September, 2010. The workshop explored the development of dose-response approaches for receptor-mediated liver cancer within a Mode of Action (MOA) Human Relevance Framework (HRF) (WHO/IPCS). Case studies addressed activation of the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR), the constitutive androstane receptor (CAR), and the pregnane X receptor alpha (PPARα). The workshop case studies provided a valuable exercise in applying the MOA/HRF and a number of insights and lessons emerged that may be useful for future applications. Inclusion of associative events and modulating factors into the framework was useful for the consideration of mechanistic data to inform dose-response. In particular, associative events and modulating factors could be a useful approach for the integration of molecular and biomarker data to inform risk assessment. Further guidance in the MOA/HRF would be useful to clarify the number of key events needed to define a MOA, to address the absence of human studies needed to inform critical interspecies differences, and to assess activation of multiple MOA cascades and interactive molecular signaling pathways. In addition, variation in human population susceptibility needs to be addressed for assessing human relevance, particularly the possibility that populations exhibit widely ranging individual thresholds. A qualitative “value of information” approach to assess the utility of further research to better inform dose-response and a detailed and systematic uncertainty analysis for use in the framework would be useful. M4-G.3 WIlson, RS*; McCaffrey, S; The Ohio State University, USDA Forest Service; wilson.1376@osu.edu Do I stay or do I go? Risk attitudes and evacuation decisions during a wildfire event Most socio-psychological wildfire research focuses on risk mitigation actions taken before a fire event occurs with less attention paid to homeowner actions during a fire. However, increasing incidences of homeowners refusing to evacuate or leaving at the last minute during wildfires and other natural disasters had led to a growing interest in research into evacuation decision making. We randomly selected homeowners from three counties in the states of Washington, Texas and South Carolina, and conducted a mailed survey to assess their evacuation decision making process in the spring of 2013. These three counties were specifically chosen because of their high wildfire risk, but they each varied in terms of past experience with wildfire and mandatory evacuation orders. Drawing on Protection Motivation Theory and the Extended Parallel Process Model, we assessed individual homeowner's threat and coping appraisal related to wildfire, as well as individual risk attitudes. We expected that individuals with risk averse attitudes would have higher threat appraisals and lower coping appraisals than those with risk tolerant attitudes. As a result it was expected that risk averse individuals would be more likely to evacuate early, whereas the risk tolerant would vary in their evacuation response based on their respective appraisals. In effect, the pattern would be that evacuation decisions are made heuristically, whereas decisions to stay and defend, or wait and see, are more systematic and driven by individual differences in the perceived threat and ability to cope with wildfire. To ensure maximum public safety, crisis communication efforts could target the risk tolerant, focusing on correcting the misperceptions or critical beliefs that tend to drive individuals to ignore evacuation orders and place their lives in danger. T3-G.1 Wilson, RS; The Ohio State University; wilson.1376@osu.edu Information processing, risk and uncertainty: A roundtable discussion There is a breadth of research that informs our understanding of how individuals process information about risk and uncertainty, with much of this research focusing on the heuristic processing of information through a variety of mechanisms. As a result of decades of research, many useful theoretical models have evolved to inform how this type of processing influences judgments (e.g., hazard acceptance models, the risk information seeking and processing model, etc). Ideally, these theoretical perspectives should influence the way we as practitioners communicate and structure decisions, yet the breadth of perspectives can make it difficult to know which is "best" or "right" for a particular context. This roundtable brings together an interdisciplinary panel of accomplished risk and decision scientists who will discuss how their research informs our understanding of information processing and what their findings suggest for improving risk communication and decision making in the context of real-world problems. Each panelist will have an opportunity to address these two key points before opening up the session to general discussion and questions from the audience. Invited roundtable panelists include: Paul Slovic (Decision Research) Joe Arvai (University of Calgary) Katherine McComas (Cornell University) Michael Siegrist (ETH Zurich) Janet Yang (State University of New York at Buffalo) Nathan Dieckmann (Oregon Health and Science University) W4-F.2 Wilson, GS; Global Catastrophic Risk Institute; grant@gcrinstitute.org Minimizing Global Catastrophic and Existential Risks from Emerging Technologies Through International Law Mankind is rapidly developing “emerging technologies” in the fields of bioengineering, nanotechnology, and artificial intelligence that have the potential to solve humanity’s biggest problems, such as by curing all disease, extending human life, or mitigating massive environmental problems like climate change. However, if these emerging technologies are misused or have an unintended negative effect, the consequences could be enormous, potentially resulting in serious, global damage to humans (known as “global catastrophic harm”) or severe, permanent damage to the Earth—including, possibly, human extinction (known as “existential harm”). The chances of a global catastrophic risk or existential risk actually materializing are relatively low, but mankind should be careful when a losing gamble means massive human death and irreversible harm to our planet. While international law has become an important source of global regulation for other global risks like climate change and biodiversity loss, emerging technologies do not fall neatly within existing international regimes, and thus any country is more or less free to develop these potentially dangerous technologies without practical safeguards that would curtail the risk of a catastrophic event. In light of these problems, this presentation serves to discuss the risks associated with bioengineering, nanotechnology, and artificial intelligence; review the potential of existing international law to regulate these emerging technologies; and propose an international regulatory regime that would put the international world in charge of ensuring that low-probability, high-risk catastrophes never materialize. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts P.82 Wilson, P*; Kubatko, A; Hawkins, B; Cox, J; Gooding, R; Whitmire, M; Battelle Memorial Institute and the Department of Homeland Security Chemical Security Analysis Center; wilsonph@battelle.org Challenges Associated with Communicating Multidimensional Risk Data to a Diverse Set of Stakeholders The Chemical Terrorism Risk Assessment (CTRA) is a DHS CSAC funded program that estimates the risk among chemical terrorism attack scenarios and assists in prioritizing mitigation strategies. Presentation of multidimensional results, specifically frequency, consequence, and risk results for a wide variety of attack scenarios, in a manner that is easily digestible to stakeholders from diverse backgrounds is a perpetual challenge on the CTRA. Graphical formats are commonly more comprehensible and meaningful than vast numeric tables; however, visually capturing multiple dimensions poses a difficult challenge. Experience has shown that pie and bar charts are the most aesthetically appealing and easily understood formats, yet such formats generally only present one dimension of the data and do not capture the uncertainty inherent in the results. Whisker and box plots portray the uncertainty associated with a single dimension of the data, but are generally not well understood by, and thus not appealing to stakeholders. Risk square plots that mimic traditional risk assessment matrices have proven useful at effectively communicating results, but struggle to depict the vast number of attack scenarios comprising the CTRA and wide range of scenario aggregates of interest to the various types of stakeholders. Often CTRA stakeholders desire drastically different aggregations in order to meet their specific needs of their missions. To better meet the needs of the wide array of CTRA stakeholders, notional data will be used to illustrate examples of risk visualizations for potential use in communicating results. Interactive data visualization concepts that allow stakeholders to customize scenario aggregation to meet specific needs will also be discussed. P.129 Winkel, DJ*; Hawkins, BE; Roszell, LE; BATTELLE MEMORIAL INSTITUTE, US ARMY PUBLIC HEALTH COMMAND; winkeld@battelle.org Development of exposure guidelines for chronic health effects following acute exposures to TICs Joint Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear doctrine (JP 3-11) requires military commanders to minimize total risk in operational planning and execution. Incorporation of Military Exposure Guidelines (MEGs) into risk estimates provides a mechanism to consider short- and long-term chemical exposure risks. However, current MEGs (and civilian guidelines) do not address chronic non-cancer health effects resulting from a single acute exposure. This gap is a source of concern for planners in the medical community, as these effects may have implications for long-term protection of exposed military or civilian populations. Challenges in establishing this type of guideline are small sample sizes, difficulties/inconsistencies in identifying long-term effects, and uncertainty in exposure concentration and duration. Given these challenges, this investigation describes an approach to develop such guidelines, using chlorine as an exemplar chemical. Chlorine was selected due to its use in attacks with improvised explosive devices, its presence in industry, and a prevalence of cases in the literature. Reports from chlorine exposures were reviewed and data on exposure concentration, duration, and long term health outcomes were compiled. Health outcomes ranged from the presence of physical symptoms (e.g., shortness of breath) to abnormal pulmonary function test results. Binomial distributions were used to address issues with a small sample population; uniform distributions were used to address incomplete exposure terms. The approach was applied to data presently identified and a probit analysis was used to generate a probit curve capturing the dose-response of long term health effects due to acute chlorine exposure. The curve compares favorably to existing guidelines (both military and civilian) in that only severe exposures have the potential to cause chronic health effects. This approach is believed to be novel and may be applicable to other TICs with a limited data set. T2-B.2 Wise, K*; Beck, N; Fischer, D; Pottenger, LH; Beatty, P; Cruzan, G; Becker, RA; 1) American Chemistry Council 2) American Chemistry Council 3) American Chemistry Council 4) The Dow Chemical Company 5) American Petroleum Institute 6) ToxWorks 7) American Chemistry Council ; beattyp@api.org Getting the Science Right on Mode of Action: An Essential Element for IRIS Improvement All stakeholders have an expectation that EPA’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) assessments will rely on the best available scientific information regarding hazard and exposure, and employ consistent, objective methods for establishing cause and effect. Given the importance of IRIS assessments in regulatory decisions, EPA must employ consistent, science-based frameworks, which utilize transparent approaches for evaluating study quality, integrating the most relevant scientific data, and clearly communicating uncertainty. Regulatory decisions have enormous public health and economic consequences, thus the scientific basis for IRIS assessments should include the full use of knowledge on modes of action (MOAs). In many ways, however, IRIS relegates MOA to a more limited role as a modifying feature, typically added only towards the end of an assessment, an approach which undervalues and undermines the vast extent of mechanistic research conducted over the last 30 years and current understanding of biology. One key litmus test for an improved IRIS will be adoption and use of a weight of evidence framework that incorporates all of the relevant and reliable data and knowledge of hypothesized MOAs, so that there is a clear and objective presentation of the extent to which existing data and knowledge do, or do not, support each hypothesis, including the default. The discussion will focus on best practices for considering scientific information on MOA and why applying them consistently is essential for IRIS improvement, not only to improve the objectivity and scientific basis of assessments, but also to help improve risk communication. P.34 Wu, TT*; Chen, LH; Ho, WC; Lin, MH; Pan, SC; Fan, KC; Chen, PC; Wu, TN; Sung, FC; Lin, RS; China Medical University; martinwu1006@gmail.com Air Pollution Patterns May Modify the Effect of Weight Gain on Lung Function among Adolescents Lung function is a very important index of respiratory health. Weight gain and air pollution both can have adverse effect on lung function. The objective of this study is to assess the modifying effect of air pollution patterns on weight gain related to reducing lung function. The study design was a retrospective birth cohort through linking birth registry record (birth weight and gestational age) and nation-wide junior high school student respiratory health survey database in central Taiwan. The study subjects were based on 10% of random sampling. For robust exposure assessments, we excluded the subject who had ever moved during the follow up in the analysis. Air pollution data including SO2, CO, O3, NO2 and PM10 were collected by high-density Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration monitoring stations. Multiple regressions were used, the adjusted variables including sex, age, height, weight, parental education level, family smoking, incense burning, exercise and temperature. Obesity was related to reducing lung function. Low birth weight had the similar effect. Obese adolescents who were born with low birth weight had the most adverse effect on lung function. Furthermore, air pollution patterns might modify the effect. It is necessary to protect public from the adverse effect of weight gain, especially considering the potential interaction with air pollution patterns. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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