Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts
M3-F.3 Klinke, A*; Renn, O; Memorial University of
Newfoundland, University of Stuttgart;
aklinke@grenfell.mun.ca
New conceptual considerations on dynamic governance
handling risks in public policy
Public policy is confronted with a new task to cope with
challenges and risks emerging in transition and transformation
periods, e.g. in domains such as energy, natural resources and
global warming. Since current governance structures are often
lacking institutional and procedural capacities, new governance
institutions may become essential. We propose that transitions
from “old’ to “new” systems that are challenged by institutional
change and transformation require a dynamic form of
governance. We reflect these issues from different perspectives
of new institutionalism which emphasize flexible and responsive
processes of institutional change and the need for sustainable
institutional reform. Rational choice theorizes the logic of
instrumental rationality, historical institutionalism offers the
logic of path dependency, and sociological institutionalism
relates to the logic of appropriateness to both the policy goals
and the public support to provide legitimacy to the process.
These “older” new institutionalisms assume a more static view
that is why we turn to discursive institutionalism with a more
dynamic approach to change and discursive problem solving
capacity as explanatory power – a “new” approach that has
recently be added to the “older” approaches. We attempt to
glean how the institutional and procedural incapability of
current public policy courses and mechanisms can be overcome
in the face of transition and transformation. We conceptualize a
framework for a dynamic configuration consisting three major
performative capacities, namely integrative, adaptive and
deliberative capacities, that are characterized by active, flexible
and extensible structures and functions intertwining at multiple
levels. Finally, we draw conclusions of how dynamic
governance contribute to change the existing course of public
policy in the energy sector and how a new governance regime
could be shaped that is essentially different in the design than
the traditional organizations and institutions that govern and
control the energy system.
T3-A.3 Koks, EE*; Bockarjova, M; De Moel, H; Aerts, JCJH; VU
University Amsterdam; elco.koks@vu.nl
Development and sensitivity analysis of an indirect risk
model for the port of Rotterdam
As transportation hubs and vital economic lifelines, ports play a
critical role within the local, regional and global economy. At
the same time, port cities are inherently at risk from both riverand
coastal flooding, aggravated by pressures such as sea-level
rise. Due to their complex infrastructure and extended regional
linkages, a comprehensive flood risk assessment is required to
understand which impacts potential flooding may bring to the
economy at large. In this paper, we propose a framework for a
comprehensive integrative flood damage model for port regions
and conduct an extensive sensitivity analysis of its underlying
assumptions. The framework consists of multiple steps. First, a
direct damage assessment is conducted in the port region,
specifically differentiating between various industrial sectors.
Second, we show how direct losses in capital and labor can be
translated into the loss in production per sector in a more
consistent manner, by making use of a Cobb-Douglas
production function. Finally, the recovery of this production
shock is modeled using a hybrid input-output model. The model
is applied to the port region of Rotterdam, using seven different
inundation scenarios. Results show that indirect production
losses can form a similar share in the total flood risk as direct
losses, in terms of expected annual damage. As a contribution
to the literature, we perform an extensive sensitivity analysis of
the model. We explore parameter uncertainty using a global
sensitivity analysis, and adjust critical assumptions in the
modeling framework related to, amongst others, import and
export restrictions and financial liability, using a scenario
approach. The results exemplify the uncertainties intrinsic to
indirect damage modeling; offer explanations for differences
found between different modeling tools; and provide critical
insights for the methodological and empirical domains of
damage modeling.
P.76 Kovacs, DC*; Thorne, SL; Butte, GE; Wroblewski, MJ;
Decision Partners; United States Census Census Bureau;
dkovacs@decisionpartners.com
Applying Mental Modeling Technology to Developing
the Communications Research and Analytics Roadmap for
Census Bureau
The U.S. Census Bureau (CB) serves as the leading source of
quality data and information about the nation's people, places,
and economy. More than just numbers, this information shapes
important policy decisions that help improve the nation’s social
and economic conditions. The Center for New Media and
Promotions (CNMP), within the Communications Directorate of
the Census Bureau, coordinates, develops, and implements
integrated communications and promotional campaigns with
consistent messaging and branding about the Census Bureau.
This includes exploring innovative ways of communicating
through the web, digital, and social media; promotional
activities; and evolving communications channels and platforms
in support of the Data Dissemination Initiative and other CB
programs. To support their activities, the CNMP sponsored
development of a Communications Research and Analytics
Roadmap (CRAR) to provide the needed insight to guide the
development of effective integrated communications services.
The Roadmap was informed by Foundational Research
comprising an assessment of existing research and Mental
Models research, a key component of Mental Modeling
Technology. The mental models research is the topic of this
presentation. First, an Expert Model of “Influences on
Integrated Communication for Data Dissemination” was
developed based on a review of background materials and
discussions with a select group of CB employees. Using the
model as an analytical basis, an interview protocol was
designed and in-depth mental models interviews were
conducted with 26 key internal CB stakeholders. The results of
the expert interviews provided critical insight to support the
development of the CRAR, which will provide guidance needed
to improve the effectiveness of CB communications and data
collection at a time of significantly escalating CB data collection
costs and ever tightening government budgets.
M2-G.4 Kowal, SP*; Jardine, CG; Bubela, TM; University of
Alberta; skowal@ualberta.ca
Transition, Trauma, and Information: Immigrant
Women’s Relationship with Immunization Risk
Communication
Effective vaccine risk communication strategies by health
agencies increase compliance with immunization programs.
Unfortunately, current strategies do not address the needs of
specific target groups, such as recent immigrants in Canada,
who have lower vaccination rates than non-immigrants. Our
study examined how foreign-born women access and use
information to make personal and childhood immunization
decisions. We conducted interviews with recently immigrated
women from South Asia, China, and Bhutan who were pregnant
or new mothers living in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. Using
NVivo qualitative software we generated an inductive coding
scheme through content analysis of the interview transcripts.
Results showed that transitional traumas associated with
immigration impact women’s desire to access or critically
assess immunization information. These transitional traumas
included political marginalization, as experienced by Bhutanese
refugees, or the loss of a strong traditional family system, for
South Asian women. Such hardships impacted the women’s
information gathering practices. Additionally, the degree to
which women exercised agency in their health decisions in their
countries of origin influenced how they accessed information in
Canada, with a high proportion of participants demonstrating
passive information gathering. Finally, there were widespread
misconceptions amongst the study participants about Canadian
vaccination programs (e.g. whether vaccines are mandatory)
and whether women should be vaccinated before or during
pregnancy. Our research uncovered the shortfalls of current
risk communication strategies for immigrant women in
Edmonton. Risk communicators must respond to the passive
information gathering practices of these individuals to prevent
misunderstandings about immunization policy and its
importance. The lack of access to culturally relevant
immunization risk communication for immigrant women in
Canada potentially limits their ability to effectively make
decisions to protect themselves and their children from
communicable diseases.
December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD