Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts
P.71 Chen, YT*; Chang, CH; Chung, YC; Chen, CC; Wang, GS;
Wu, KY; National Taiwan University; r01844001@ntu.edu.tw
Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Cisplatin for Medical
Staff of Medical Centers in Taiwan
Cisplatin, a platinum-based chemotherapeutic medicine, widely
used in chemotherapy, is mutagenic and has ability to cause
chromosal aberrations, micronuclei and to induce
nephrotoxicity, birth abnormality, and reproductive effect.
Potential cisplatin exposures to medical staff including
pharmacists and nurses who handle the chemotherapeutic
medicine have been of great concerns. A preliminary study was
conducted to analyze urinary platinum to assess exposures for
126 medical staff in three medical centers in Taiwan, showing
that urinary platinum was detectable in only 5 of these study
subjects in the range from 1.59 to 89.1 ppt. In this study, the
urinary platinum levels were used to reconstruct cisplatin
exposures for probabilistic risk assessment by using Bayesian
statistics Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation with the
WINBUGS software. The results showed that cisplatin
exposures were 0.03 mg/kg/day for pharmacists in the
departments of chemotherapeutic medicine, the corresponding
hazard indexes (HI) were 129.98 ± 12.95; for nurses in
oncology wards were 0.02 mg/kg/day, the corresponding HI
were 86.53 ± 8.67; and for nurses in the oncology clinics were
0.04 mg/kg/day, the corresponding HI were 173.14 ± 17.23.
These results suggest that the intervention should be
implemented thoroughly and further studies should be
conducted to protect medical staff handling the chemotherapy
medicine in Taiwan.
P.145 Chen, NC*; Yates, JY; Texas A&M University;
nnchen@tamu.edu
Decision Aiding for Extreme Event Evacuation
Evacuating a large population from an impending extreme
event is fraught with complexity, uncertainty and risk.
Evacuees have to make decisions on route planning and
point-of-destination while emergency managers need to ensure
the appropriate personnel and infrastructure are available and
capable of facilitating the evacuation. In evacuation, individual
evacuees are exhibiting an increasing desire to communicate
with family, friends and the local/state/federal authorities
in-situ. We develop an agent-based simulation model to examine
the impact of communication within social connections and
emergency management during regional evacuations. We show
how improved communication among evacuees impacts the
evacuation process and we demonstrate how this knowledge
can lead to improved public evacuation management.
Furthermore, to better enable evacuee communication during
an event, we formulate a time-dependent discrete optimization
model to determine the location of telecommunications
equipment as well as the assignment of evacuees to equipment.
W3-D.2 Chen, Y*; Dennis, S; McGarry, S; Food and Drug
Administration ; yuhuan.chen@fda.hhs.gov
FDA’s Risk Assessment Model for Designating High-Risk
Foods Pertaining to Product Tracing Required by FSMA
Section 204 of the Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA)
requires FDA to designate high-risk foods for which additional
record keeping requirements are appropriate and necessary to
protect the public health. FSMA outlines the parameters that
FDA should use in developing a high risk foods (HRF) list.
These parameters include: (1) the known safety risks of a
particular food, (2) the likelihood that a particular food has a
high potential risk for microbiological or chemical
contamination or would support growth of pathogen
microorganisms, (3) the point in the manufacturing process
where contamination is most likely to occur, (4) the likelihood
of contamination and steps taken during manufacturing process
to reduce the possibility of contamination, (5) the likelihood
that consuming a food will result in a foodborne illness, and (6)
the likely or known severity of a food borne illness attributed to
a particular food. A predictive, data-driven risk assessment
model with seven criteria that encompass the many factors
required by FSMA is being developed. Data from multiple
sources are used in implementing the model and provide a list
of candidate food-hazard pairs for consideration in designating
high-risk foods. The presentation will focus on current Agency
thinking and stakeholder input on the development of the HRF
list.
T2-C.2 Cheung, C; Friesen, S*; Government of Canada;
shaye.friesen@drdc-rddc.gc.ca
The federal all hazards risk assessment: integrating
strategic risk into emergency management planning – a
Canadian perspective
The purpose of this presentation is to describe the All Hazards
Risk Assessment (AHRA) framework that was developed
collaboratively between Public Safety Canada (PS) and Defence
Research and Development Canada’s Centre for Security
Science (DRDC CSS). Launched as a pilot in 2010, the AHRA
methodology considers public safety and security threats and
hazards, both malicious and non-malicious, of national
significance and addresses them using a holistic,
cross-government approach involving 25 federal departments
and agencies. The AHRA provides a frame that other
government departments may populate. The AHRA is a
Canadian innovation that uses a comprehensive analytical
approach towards scenario selection and development, risk
scoring and analysis, and risk evaluation. This presentation
discusses how the results from this process are integrated
broadly amongst federal institutions. It illustrates how the
AHRA has become a key component for ensuring a long-term,
viable strategy, whereby federal institutions participate in an
annual cycle to evaluate priority threats and hazards to Canada
and validate their emergency management plans in relation to
the identified scenarios. This presentation concludes by
discussing the results from the third cycle of development, the
merging of risk assessments with a broader capability
assessment methodology, and the exploratory work to build a
National AHRA Framework with Provinces, Territories and
Regions.
December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD