Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts
T4-C.4 Vatanpour, S*; Hrudey, SE; Dinu, I; University of
Alberta; vatanpour@ualberta.ca
Blood transfusion public health risk to explore
limitations of the common risk matrix
A risk matrix is a popular semi-quantitative tool for assessing
risks, and setting priority in risk management to address major
hazards in diverse contexts. The matrix depicts risk magnitude
as a function of harm likelihood and severity descriptors and
has been used for diverse risks ranging from terrorism to
drinking water safety. While the method can be informative in
distinguishing high and low risks, previous work described
theoretical circumstances, where hazard likelihood and its
consequence are negatively correlated, under which the insight
provided by the risk matrix would be worse than useless.
Because the risk matrix is so widely used, we have evaluated
the theoretical concern using a public health risk scenario -
tainted blood transfusion risk. We analyze the situation in
which the hazard likelihood is negatively correlated with the
hazard severity, and investigate its implications, including the
scenario of making a decision worse than random, a practice
that could result in tainted blood tragedy. Evidence about the
frequency of blood infectious diseases in blood donors and
population of Canada is provided by reports of the Public
Health Agency of Canada. The severity was rated according to a
scale provide by the U.K. National Health Service. The risk
matrix was constructed based on the available risk evidence.
Although the negative correlation between hazard likelihood
and its consequence complies with our data, the risk matrix
constructed for blood transfusion risk data discriminates
reasonably among risks. This suggests that such a negative
correlation which often occurs does not always invalidate the
risk matrix. Previous work has raised an important concern
about the validity of risk matrices, but this concern has only
been illustrated in theory. Authentic scenarios to show the
invalidity of risk matrices need to be evaluated. We recommend
careful consideration of how risk matrices are used in risk
management and we offer some explicit advice to this end.
T3-A.1 Veeramany, A*; Mangalam, S; Technical Standards and
Safety Authority; aveeramany@tssa.org
Risk-informed regulatory compliance enforcement model
for technical infrastructure in public domain
Inspections are a critical instrument for regulatory
organizations to enforce timely compliance with regulations
and standards of practice in a variety of areas of public interest
such as environment, health and public safety. The amount of
time provided to a regulated entity to comply with the
regulations when a deficiency is identified on the site is the
subject matter of this study. A typical regulatory model is to
empower the inspectors to assess threat to public safety and
provide practical time duration to comply with the regulations.
An alternative approach being proposed is a semi-quantitative
risk analysis to govern the time to compliance using an
established cause-effect reasoning methodology. The objective
would be to assess and characterize the risk associated with
possible scenarios that could result in the presence of an
unresolved non-compliance and establish a risk-informed time
to compliance. This paper shares the knowledge and experience
gained from implementing such a model at the Technical
Standards and Safety Authority, Ontario, Canada, a regulatory
organization with the responsibility of managing public safety
associated with technical devices and infrastructure such as
elevating devices, boilers and pressure vessels, power plants,
pipelines etc. The technique to determine time to compliance is
a three step process. In the first step, a deficiency observable
through an inspection process is assessed for likelihood,
severity and exposure using cause-effect reasoning techniques
such as failure modes and effects analysis. Secondly, an
acceptable risk threshold is chosen in terms of
Disability-Adjusted Life-Years (DALY) per cumulative effect in
agreement with all the stakeholders. Thirdly, time to
compliance is determined based on the risk, context sensitive
attributes and the acceptable limit. The inspection report shall
include the nature of contravention, steps to address it and the
time to comply.
P.14 Vianna, NA*; Saldiva, PHN; University of Sao Paulo;
nelza@usp.br
Air pollution in Salvador, BA, Brazil: An experience of
risk analysis
Scientific basis for understanding the effects of air pollution on
human health are necessary in worldwide because local data
are important to support decision making and air pollution
control. Developing countries have presented difficulty for
pollutants detection and measure of air pollution. This is a
challenge for the implementation of air quality standards. In
Brazil a Program from Environmental Health Agency called
VIGIAR makes surveillance in air quality on human health, but
there is not technology available for measures of pollutants in
all brazilian cities. For implementation this program in a
metropolitan area of brazilian megacity was necessary involving
stakeholders. The aim this study was to make a framework
between academic and public sector for application of risk
analysis and air quality management. The pollutants where
characterized in terms of chemical composition. The receptor
model was used for detection particulate matter 2.5 during two
years in Salvador city. The composition of particulate matter
was studied for understanding local emission. Alternative tools
as biomonitoring were used, including morphological analysis
of particles. Studies about effects on human health was used
data of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Strategies of
risk communication are necessary yet. After validation of
methodology, these results will be used to support decision
making in Salvador, as well as help in policy for air pollution
control and to protect human health.
W3-J.4 Viauroux, C.*; Gungor, A.; University of Maryland,
Baltimore County (Viauroux); U.S. Coast Guard (Gungor);
ckviauro@umbc.edu
Econometric Model Estimating the Effectiveness of Life
Jacket Wear in Recreational Boating Using Data from
Coast Guard’s Marine Information Safety and Law
Enforcement (MISLE) Database
This paper presents the results of our analysis designed to
estimate the effectiveness of life jacket wear in recreational
boating activities. This effectiveness rating, which is typically
measured by the number or percent of fatalities that could have
been avoided, is important in assessing the potential benefits of
USCG regulation, policy, and programs aimed at reducing the
frequency and severity of recreational boating accidents. In
1993, the National Transportation Safety Board conducted a
study (Safety Study: Recreational Boating Safety, PB93-917001,
NTSB/SS-93/01) that estimated an effectiveness of 85 percent
from examination of 281 drowning cases from recreational
boating accidents in which persons were not wearing life
jackets (an estimated 238 of them would have survived with a
life jacket). We present a regression model to estimate the
effectiveness of life jacket wear using the USCG Boating
Accident Report Database (BARD), which contains detailed
casualty data for boating accidents reported to the USCG.
Focusing on the 2008-2011 period, this model suggests that life
jacket wear could have prevented a substantial number of
fatalities during this period.
December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD