Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts M4-A.3 Cohen, SM; University of Nebraska Medical Center; scohen@unmc.edu A common mode of action for arsenical toxicity Inorganic arsenic increases the risk of cancer in humans, primarily of the urinary bladder, skin, and lung. Systematic investigation of the mode of action of urinary bladder carcinogenesis in rats and mice strongly supports a mode of action involving generation of reactive trivalent arsenicals which bind to sulfhydryl groups of critical proteins in the target cells, leading to cytotoxicity and consequent regenerative proliferation, increasing the risk of cancer. Arsenicals are not DNA reactive. Evidence for indirect genotoxicity indicates that this only occurs at extremely high concentrations in vitro or in vivo. Intracellular inclusions that occur in mice and humans, similar to those observed with other metals, have been mistaken for micronuclei in a variety of epidemiology studies. Although the evidence for cytotoxicity and regenerative proliferation as the mode of action is strongest for the urinary bladder, evidence is accumulating that a similar process occurs in the lung and skin, and is likely for other epithelial cell systems and for other, noncancer effects. This mode of action is consistent with a nonlinear dose response with a threshold. In rodents, the no effect level is 1 ppm of the diet or drinking water, and in vitro the no effect level is greater than 0.1 µM trivalent arsenic. Administration of inorganic arsenic is necessary above doses of 1 ppm to generate urinary or tissue concentrations above 0.1 µM. In effect, arsenicals produce a preneoplastic lesion, toxicity and cell death with regenerative proliferation, leading to increased risk of cancer if continued over time. This mode of action in animals is consistent with inorganic arsenic epidemiology and other studies in humans for these cell types. Reaction of trivalent arsenicals with critical sulfhydryl groups in target cells is the basis for inorganic arsenic toxicity for non-cancer and cancer effects. W3-H.4 Coles, JB*; Zhuang, J; University at Buffalo; jbcoles@buffalo.edu Ideal Disaster Relief?: Using the IFRC Code of Conduct in model development Bridging the gap between research and practice has been a recognized problem in many fields, and has been especially noticeable in the field of disaster relief. As the number and impact of disasters have increased, there has been great interest from the research community to model and provide solutions for some of the challenges in the field. However, this research has not always been guided by an understanding of the complex and nuanced challenges faced by people working in disaster relief. In this talk we propose a model for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) Code of Conduct (CoC) for use in relief operations. The CoC provides organizations involved in disaster relief with a clear set of expectations and objectives for behavior in a relief operation. The CoC is nonbinding and is designed to help organizations self-assess and refocus disaster relief operations. Additionally, the code provides a list of standards that could be used to assess a potential partner to ensure operational excellence and make sure that investments in relief are conducted with the utmost integrity. Though there are several standards and codes that apply aid and disaster relief, the CoC is of particular interest because it examines the methodology of operations rather than just a minimum goal (such as the SPHERE standards) or an overarching philosophy (such as the Seven Fundamental Principles of the IFRC). P.142 Coles, JB*; Zhuang, J; University at Buffalo; jbcoles@buffalo.edu Model Validation in Disaster Relief Partner Selection and Maintenance In this research we study how optimization, simulation, and game theory models could help agencies make better decisions after a disaster. To better understand the behavioral dynamics of interagency interaction, we interviewed over 60 agencies about their network behavior using an ego-centric approach, and used this data to propose a set of experiments to examine agency decision making in disaster relief operations. The full process of network development is complex, but in this poster we focus on the process of partner selection in an environment that is both cooperative and competitive. The partner selection model proposed here was developed from interviews conducted with agencies involved in disaster relief operations in response the 2010 earthquake in Haiti, the 2011 Tornado in Joplin Missouri, and Hurricane Sandy along the east coast of the United States. The model proposed will be initially validated using student data to provide a granular estimate of how interagency dynamics work. Once the initial validation is complete, we will conduct a secondary validation process with decision makers working in disaster relief agencies. P.108 COLON, L; MONZON, A; DEMICHELIS, S*; National University of Lanus; sandrademichelis@yahoo.com Contamination risks and effects on suburban areas by a ceramic and tiles factories: a case of study The aim of the study is to evaluate the contamination produced by a factory of ceramic and tiles which is located in the Industrial Park of Burzaco, Almirante Brown County, Buenos Aires Province, Argentina. There is an urbanization surrounding this industrial area without any kind of barrier The tiles factory delivered into the media uncontrolled residual waters from productive process in an artificial pond and which is in contact with population since eventually it discharges into a natural stream and due it was not adequately built affecting groundwater. Waste water, soil and air sources of pollution were analyzed On the other hand, there is a neighborhood under risk, which had been surrounded by the Industrial park growth and which is directly affected by particulate material disposed in open areas on the soil and by uncontrolled gaseous emissions. The population vulnerability is increased by strong rains since run off transports particulates from accumulation areas and pollutants from the lagoon overflows.. This work presents an integral system of environmental and waste water management, that integrates technological improvements including the use of a effluent treatment system, an intervention protocol for administrative and productive sectors in order to guarantee a correct life cycle of their products and diminish inhabitants risks . December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts M2-J.2 Colyvan, M; University of Sydney; mark.colyvan@sydney.edu.au Value of Information Models and Data Collection in Conservation Biology I will look at recent uses of value of information studies in conservation biology. In the past, it has been mostly assumed that more and better quality data will lead to better conservation management decisions. Indeed, this assumption lies behind and motivates a great deal of work in conservation biology. Of course, more data can lead to better decisions in some cases but decision-theoretic models of the value of information show that in many cases the cost of the data is too high and thus not worth the effort of collecting. While such value of information studies are well known in economics and decision theory circles, their applications in conservation biology are relatively new and rather controversial. I will discuss some reasons to be wary of, at least, wholesale acceptance of such studies. Apart from anything else, value of information models treat conservation biology as a servant to conservation management, where all that matters is the relevant conservation management decision. In short, conservation biology loses some of its scientific independence and the fuzzy boundary between science and policy becomes even less clear. M2-I.4 Connelly, EB*; Lambert, JH; Thekdi, SA; University of Virginia, University of Virginia, University of Richmond; ec5vc@virginia.edu Robust supply chain investments for disaster preparedness and community resilience: An application to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Effective disaster preparedness and response requires investment in resilient and agile emergency management systems. Meanwhile there are scarce resources for emergency supply chains and related operations. Resource allocations to these systems must consider multiple criteria and deep uncertainties related to population behaviors, climate change, innovative technologies, wear and tear, extreme events, and others. The methods demonstrated in this paper help to prioritize among emergency supply chain investments by employing an integration of scenario analysis and multi-criteria decision analysis. The results will aid emergency management agencies in maintaining and increasing performance of emergency supply chains and logistics systems. The methods will be applied to disaster reduction initiatives of firstresponder agencies in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, whose overall society and favela populations are vulnerable to landslides, blackouts, radiological events, etc., and will host in the next few years the World Cup and the Olympics. W2-F.1 Conrad, JW, Jr*; Paulson, G; Reiss, R; Patterson, J; Conrad Law & Policy Counsel; jamie@conradcounsel.com Legal context for US federal agency peer reviews Any discussion of federal agency peer reviews must begin with the legal framework that constrains them (and any desired reforms). For agency-administered peer reviews, the principal legal authorities are the Federal Advisory Committee Act, the Ethics in Government Act and even the federal criminal code. For peer reviews administered by agency contractors, federal acquisition regulations largely govern. This dichotomy is increasingly being recognized as problematic by concerned stakeholders. Executive Branch and agency policies are also highly important, particularly OMB’s Peer Review Bulletin. This presentation will lay out the relevant legal framework and then explore current controversies and proposed solutions. W3-C.4 Convertino, MC*; Liang, SL; University of Minnesota; matteoc@umn.edu Unveiling the Spatio-Temporal Cholera Outbreak in Cameroon: a Model for Public Health Engineering Cholera is one of the deadliest and widespread diseases worldwide in developing and undeveloped countries. Education, water sanitation, and human mobility are together the major factors affecting the disease spreading and these factors can be enhanced by unregulated land development and climate change. Here we investigate the cholera outbreak in the Far North region of Cameroon in 2010 that has seen 2046 cases of infection with 241 cases and a fatality rate of 12% (600 deaths) at the peak of infection. In this study, we further develop a metacommunity model predicting the spatio-temporal evolution of the cholera outbreak by incorporating long-term water resource availability and rainfall event dependent resources. Susceptible, infected, and recovered individuals are modeled in the region as a function of their mobility and pathogen spread. We apply a novel radiation model of human mobility to better characterize the secondary pathway of transmission. The model is capable to predict the spatiotemporal evolution and prevalence of the 2010 cholera epidemic with an average accuracy of 88 % with respect to the epidemiological data. We find that cholera is a highly heterogeneous and asynchronous process in which multiple drivers have different relative importance in space. Using global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, we find hydrogeomorphological and social controls on the distribution and emergence of outbreaks in different health districts. Particularly, human mobility and the available water resources are predominantly important in urbanized mountain and floodplain regions, respectively. The model predicts cases at a scale that is two orders of magnitude finer than the health district scale, which allows one a precise healthcare planning and response after the onset. The model is designed as a parsimonious model to be readily applicable to any country and scale of analysis facing cholera outbreaks. Moreover, because of the generality of its structure the model can be easily tuned to different pathogen ecology types for waterborne diseases. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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