Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts
M2-I.3 Hamilton, MC*; Lambert, JH; University of Virginia;
mcg7w@virginia.edu
An iterative value of information approach using
scenario-based preferences for risk analysis of
infrastructure systemsThis is the title
Risk analysis is too often applied ad hoc to factors that later
turn out to be of little importance to an investment problem at
hand. The selection of sources of risk for future analyses ought
to be conditioned on knowledge that the risks have a significant
influence to priorities of stakeholders. This paper describes
integrating three parts of analysis to ensure that risk analysis is
focused on significant factors in risk management of large-scale
systems: (i) scenario-based preferences analysis combines
factors into scenarios that influence priority-setting; (ii) systems
analysis with multiple criteria ensures that expertise and
concerns of diverse stakeholders are represented; (iii) value of
information analysis supports dialogue and negotiation in
adaptive iterations. The above steps focus risk and uncertainty
analysis towards factors and stakeholder concerns with
significant influence to decision-making. This research is
unique to combine scenario-based preferences with a value of
information philosophy to guide iterative steps of the decision
analysis. The combination of factors provides a basis on which
to update the investment alternatives, evaluation criteria, and
future scenarios in subsequent analyses. The result aids
agencies and industry in achieving a more holistic,
risk-informed understanding of strategic planning problems.
The integration of the three elements is demonstrated on a case
study of energy systems of military and industrial installations
considering investments in renewable energy, microgrids, and
natural gas microturbines, among others. We provide a
quantitative demonstration that addresses cost-risk-benefit of
several alternatives in multiple iterations of scenario analysis.
Scenarios include combinations of future and emergent factors
that span technology, climate, economy, regulatory,
socio-economic, and others.
W3-D.3 Hamilton, KH*; Haas, CN; Drexel University ;
kh495@drexel.edu
Prioritization of roof-harvested rainwater pathogens to
guide treatment and use
Current efforts to reduce demands and detrimental impacts on
the world’s water resources have led to the reevaluation of the
practice of rainwater harvesting. However, limited information
is available on actual end uses of roof-harvested rainwater
(RHRW) and their frequencies for developed countries. Given
the variable nature of rainwater quality due to catchment
surface material, meteorological parameters, etc., it is
challenging to designate appropriate uses. Despite these
limitations, it is useful to identify high-priority human
pathogens for guiding rainwater treatment and use. The
ultimate goal is to encourage sustainable water use while not
promoting a significantly increased exposure to disease-causing
pathogens. Epidemiologic studies indicate that rainwater
(re)used for drinking or domestic use has been associated with
disease risks and several outbreaks. In light of these potential
risks, this study (1) summarizes RHRW pathogen occurrence
from eight North American/European studies identified through
a systematic literature review; (2) develops risk model input
distributions using maximum likelihood estimation; (3) uses a
probabilistic risk model and sensitivity analysis to prioritize
pathogens for further study; and (4) evaluates the potential for
human health risk of RHRW by comparing volumes necessary to
incur an “unacceptable” risk. Given limited reported
concentrations from North America/Europe available, exposure
to low RHRW volumes (Median 10E-4 to 10E+2 L, 5th
percentile 10E-6 to 10E-2 L), could plausibly exceed current
USEPA infection risk targets for recreational water (1E-4).
Priority pathogens identified (median volumes for exceeding
risk standard are