Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts T3-B.4 Menzie, C; Kashuba, R*; Exponent; rkashuba@exponent.com Developing Effect-Based Conceptual Models for Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA) that can Accommodate Diverse Stressors In contrast to stressor-driven risk assessment, which focuses on identifying the potential effects of a particular stressor, effects-driven risk assessment aims to characterize the various interacting stressors and pathways that can lead to an effect of concern. This causal web of influences can be mapped using a conceptual model framework of nodes and arrows, representing concepts and relationships. In identifying assessment endpoints, stressors, and the connections among them, a conceptual model helps stakeholders visualize the problem context, facilitating communication and understanding of the contributing causes to an adverse condition. The evaluation of risk factors leading to cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a particularly good example of a complex system of mechanisms resulting in an undesired health effect. Literature review identifies upward of 50 different factors whose influence on CVD has been studied or postulated, including biological considerations such as lipid status and genetics, behaviors such as smoking and shift work, environmental exposures such as mercury and arsenic, and socioeconomic correlations. Conceptual model development involves (1) defining the model endpoint (e.g., CVD as physiological changes affecting heart function, excluding congenital heart defects), (2) identifying proximal biological mechanisms that lead to that endpoint (e.g., tissue injury, inflammation, atherosclerosis), (3) sorting and summarizing risk factors and categorizing direct versus indirect pathways of influence, (4) soliciting feedback from subject-matter experts as part of the iterative model-amending process, and (5) ensuring aesthetics that most clearly communicate the modeled system (e.g., color-coding stressor categories). A conceptual model diagram can then be used as a starting point to evaluate the magnitude and certainty of (information available for) each causal pathway, and to prioritize both potential interventions and future research directions. W4-C.5 Merad Myriam, *; Marcel Frédéric, ; INERIS; myriam.merad@ineris.fr Is it possible to assess the quality of the governance? Conclusions of the National working group on Governance of sustainability within public organizations Economical constraints on organizations can threaten their sustainability. Past and present disasters and scandals such as for example BP Deepwater Horizon oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010, Servier Mediator (Benfluorex) scandal in 2009 and Enron affair and collapse in 2001 have pointed significant weakness in governance issues. By governance, we mean more than corporate governance aspects. In addition to the rules of functioning of the Board of Directors, aspects such as functioning of the organization, risk management policy and how risk are prevented, relationship with stakeholders, communication and reporting on Corporate Social Responsibility and Sustainable Development and the way missions and projects of the organization are conducted must be considered. INERIS is a member of public institutions and companies’ Sustainable Development (SD) Club and contributes, in this framework, to animate and to coordinate a working group on "the governance of public organizations in response to SD the challenges". We have argued that there is a need to develop methods and tools to diagnosis and assess the governance of the organizations with respect to Sustainable Development. However, this task remains difficult due to the fact that it is complicated to appraisal the quality of governance. This paper will present the conclusion of a 3 years national working group on governance of public organizations in response to Sustainable development challenges and will present a protocol to diagnosis and analyzes the governance of SD based in the use of multiple-criteria decision aiding methods. P.61 Merad Myriam, *; Marcel Frédéric, ; INERIS; myriam.merad@ineris.fr A pragmatic way of achieving High Sustainable Organization: Governance and organizational learning in action in the public French sector Sustainability is becoming more and more the key challenge for organizations. The French public organizations are currently working on issues related to both the assessments and the governance of sustainability. In this paper we propose a “proactive-based assessment” that help to set clear and conscious the different stage of progress of the organizations in terms of sustainability and responsiveness in that respect. Three new concepts to deal with the problem of sustainability for a public organization are proposed based on a research-in-action approach: the concept of “critical capital”, the concept of High Sustainable Organization (HSO), and the concept of learning stages within HSO. Our contribution is mainly based on investigation and pragmatic observation done within the French working group on “Governance” of public organizations. T3-H.4 Meyer, AK*; Groher, DM; Cain, LG; AM: Environmental and Munitions Center of Expertise, Army Corps of Engineers; DG and LC: New England District, Army Corps of Engineers; anita.k.meyer@usace.army.mil Health Risk Assessment/Risk Management Case Study: Managing Project Uncertainty Presented by the IRIS Trichloroethylene Reference Concentration Published in IRIS In the fall of 2011 the IRIS Toxicological Review of Trichloroethylene (TCE) was finalized and published. However, questions still remain regarding use of the chronic reference concentration (RfC) whose basis includes developmental effects with a exposure window of concern less than thirty days as a critical endpoint. Implementing this value to assess risk leads to issues over sampling and analysis, exposure assessment and risk management, due to the subacute concern within the chronic toxicity value. This presentation will describe Department of Defense research efforts and practical site approaches that may be used to address these issues. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts M2-H.1 Middleton, JK*; Stoeckel, DM; Nilsen, M; Winkel, D; Anderson, D; Pals, T; 1, 2, 3, 4 - BATTELLE, 5, 6, - DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY, SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY DIRECTORATE; middletonj@battelle.org : A second look at bioterrorism scenarios for the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA) The Department of Homeland Security’s Bioterrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA) includes a large number of scenarios to provide a comprehensive assessment of risk to the nation. Advancements in technology and emergence or re-emergence of pathogenic organisms require that the scenarios considered within the assessment be revisited on a regular basis. To reduce the burden associated with full implementation into the BTRA and to ensure that including a pathogen, technology, or target into the BTRA is worth the investment, DHS has tested applicability of an analytic approach used in the historic biological research program and has developed a method for assessing the potential consequences of a new scenario as a preliminary assessment. The method minimizes the input data needed for the scenario and simplifies the target considerations to a few specific targets that provide a reasonable assessment of potential consequences. This new methodology will be presented along with an overview of how the method will help to guide inclusion of scenarios within the BTRA. T1-A.1 Miles, S*; Dalrymple, K. E.; Madsen, P; Krajewski, J; University of Iowa; stephanie-miles@uiowa.edu Finding Words That Work: Assessing Media Coverage of Water Issues Across Iowa The past decade has seen a rise in concern for water resource management and policies under the increasing strain from domestic, agricultural, industrial and recreational use of our nation’s aquatic resources. Iowa, like many other states, is investing in research and technology to improve sustainability practices in hopes that proper management today will provide abundance in the future. Studies suggest that policy initiatives created by university researchers and government officials find more success through engagement with the public to promote understanding of water sustainability concerns and participation in community efforts (Gleick, 2003). Crucial antecedents to awareness for any environmental concern are knowledge and understanding of the processes, terminology, and science surrounding the issue. Previous research suggests that the public obtains basic understandings of science and technology through exposure to mass media messages (Friedman, Dunwoody, & Rogers, 1986). This study builds upon this research by investigating how Iowa newspapers cover water-related topics with a goal of informing future research concerning public knowledge of water sustainability issues and policies. We examine these research questions using a content analysis of daily Iowa newspapers with a circulation between 8,470 and 120,654 covering the region of interest. Results shed light upon the ways that journalists address water issues in relation to topics covered, such as drought, toxicity problems, utility sources, recreational uses, and ecological perspectives. These findings not only contribute to our understanding of water sustainability coverage, but also provide insight as to what water related media content Iowa residents are exposed to in their daily lives. Implications of this research regarding the potential effects that such media exposure may have on knowledge of water issues, public opinion towards water use and regulation, and future support of water policies are discussed. T3-I.2 Miller, MK*; Baker, JW; Stanford University; mahalia@stanford.edu Simulation approaches for assessing the impacts on equity in a region due to earthquakes Earthquakes impact different regions and different demographic groups differently, as evidenced, for example, in the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake by the relatively slow recovery of low-income communities in Watsonville, CA compared to that of the wealthier surrounding communities. Up to now, seismic risk analysis has focused on individual locations or on aggregate measures of network performance. In this article we present a method for assessing the impacts on equity in terms of changes in accessibility for different geographic and demographic groups in a region. First, we explain how to employ an activity-based traffic model to answer a new question, namely how transportation patterns will shift after parts of the highway and transit networks are damaged. This provides us a tool for assessing changes in accessibility for each different community. The tool also allows policy makers to quantify the costs and benefits of different mitigation strategies. Second, we illustrate the framework with a case study of the San Francisco Bay Area using a state-of-the-art stochastic catalog of earthquake events. Our findings suggest that local infrastructure, such as the redundancy of the highway links, as well as the geographical proximity to active faults are key predictors of the communities most likely to experience high losses of accessibility but we identify critical outliers at particularly high risk, such as San Rafael, CA. Finally, by analyzing the demographics in travel demand we compare the expected equity consequences from the full stochastic catalog of earthquake events both in the current state of the infrastructure and with two simulated mitigation strategies, one focusing on mitigating overall average regional risk and one focusing on reducing extreme demographic group risks. Thus, this framework will assist private and public policy makers to improve decisions about risk mitigation by incorporating an understanding of the impacts on equity. P.66 Mishra, A*; Lambertini, E; Pradhan, AK; University of Maryland College Park, MD; amishra1@umd.edu Foodborne pathogens in leafy greens: Data, predictive models, and quantitative risk assessments In the last few years, technological innovations in production, harvesting, processing, and packaging of fresh produce and their consumption have increased tremendously in the U.S. Consumers are eating more fresh produce, purchasing a broader variety and demanding more convenience products such as ready-to-eat salads. Fresh produce is generally consumed raw, making it a high-risk food in terms of pathogen contamination. A recent study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention indicated that in between 1998 and 2008, leafy greens outbreaks accounted for 22.3% of foodborne outbreaks. Contamination with pathogens of fresh produce including leafy greens has been a major concern to various stakeholders such as food industry, regulatory agencies, and consumers. In this study, we performed a structured review of literature to gain more insight into the available data and information related to contamination sources, predictive microbial models, and quantitative risk assessment models for different pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella, Escherichia coli O157:H7 in leafy greens in the farm-to-table continuum. It was observed that microbial contamination mostly originated from the pre-harvest environment. Contamination can effectively be controlled by storing the leafy greens at appropriate temperature and time, and by the application of intervention steps such as washing and irradiation. Several research studies on predictive modeling and quantitative microbial risk assessments of pathogens in fresh produce, which are focused on one or more steps such as irrigation, harvesting, processing, transportation, storage, and washing, have been reported in the last few years. We divided those into three categories: pre-harvest models, storage models, and models related to intervention steps, primarily washing. Overall, our study provides valuable information to inform future quantitative microbial risk assessment studies related to leafy greens. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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