Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts
T4-I.4 Kajitani, Y*; Yuyama, A; Central Reserach Institute of
Electric Power Industry; y-kaji@criepi.denken.or.jp
Operational Reliability of Power Plants and Energy
Shortage Risk in Japan after the March 11 Earthquake
and Tsunami
The power shortages following the Great East Japan
Earthquake create persistent impacts on Japanese society. The
firms which are not only located in the severely damaged area
but also outside the area had to reduce power usage both at
peak and total and spent considerable efforts to achieve the
target amount of power consumption. After the event, thermal
and hydro power plants substitute nuclear powers by paying
the efforts to reduce the shut-down periods, but there is
uncertainty that they can be affected by internal and external
incidents. In addition, the supply capacity and demand of
electricity can be influenced by many other factors such as
capacity of saving energy both in household and industry
depending on temperature, rain falls for hydropower plants,
etc. This presentation introduces these supply and demand
uncertainty based on the experience of march 11 disaster in
Japan, and estimate the risk of supply shortages by some
statistical models.
T2-J.3 Kashuba, R*; Fairbrother, A; Kane Driscoll, S;
Tinsworth, R; Exponent; rkashuba@exponent.com
Probabilistic Methods to Address Ecological Risk of
Secondary Ingestion Exposure to Chemicals
The goal of risk assessment is to evaluate the potential of a
future adverse event based on current information, which
necessarily wrestles with the interpretation of uncertainty.
Such uncertainty includes (1) how well available data
characterize “true” values now and in the future, (2) how well
mathematical simplifications approximate “true” relationships
between variables, overlaid with (3) natural variability in
attributes within a population (e.g., body weight). Probabilistic
risk assessment methods enable a risk assessor to incorporate
these different sources of uncertainty into the characterization
of risk. Not only does this create a more complete picture of the
risk profile, it also quantifies the proportion of the population
likely affected and the certainty with which that prediction can
be made. In contrast to deterministic risk, estimated for a
constant average or worst-case scenario, probabilistic risk is
assessed across the range of possible scenarios, and the
likelihood of each occurring. This process is examined through
calculation of the ecological risk associated with hypothetical
potential ingestion of chemical-exposed prey by non-target
predators. Distributions of possible secondary exposures to a
predator are calculated via Monte Carlo sampling from
distributions of input variables, such as body weight, food
ingestion rate, percent of predator diet composed of a
particular prey, and percent of prey population containing
chemical residues (from primary exposure). These
dose-to-predator distributions are then propagated through a
distribution of possible dose-response curves, resulting in
distributions of expected mortality rates, which integrate
uncertainty associated with both exposure and effects
estimation. Risk is then reported as the likelihood of exceeding
different mortality thresholds. Changes to reported risk as a
result of different modeling assumptions are evaluated, and
challenges of communicating probabilistic risk are explored.
T1-G.2 Kasperson, RE; Clark University;
rkasperson@clarku.edu
Social trust and fracking
The call is out for a rapid worldwide expansion of a new energy
supply option to meet the global threats of climate change. At
the same time, in a number of counties (including prominently
the U.S.), a continued erosion of social trust in those who will
develop and manage fracking projects is painfully evident. This
presentation seeks to identify and explore the relevant issues.
The long-term trend in the erosion of social trust has both
structural and behavioral roots. Indeed, the trend appears to
have become a central ingredient in the socialization process,
as changes in the confidence and trust in a wide array of social
institutions and sectors (note the historically low trust in the
U.S. Congress as an example) become apparent. This suggests,
as well as the work of Slovic, Renn, and other social scientists,
that social trust once lost cannot be easily regained, even with
highly meritorious behavior. Accordingly, decisions will need to
be made under conditions of high social distrust. The scientific
and social uncertainties that permeate fracking exacerbate this
reality. Moreover, risks, community impacts, and local benefits
vary widely from plaace to place. Societies are still early in the
deployment of this energy option as an antidote to climate
change. And so accumulating experience will be important in
assessing and managing the risks.
T4-K.2 Kasperson, RK; Clark University;
rkasperson@clarku.edu
Opportunities and dilemmas in managing risk
uncertainty
Uncertainty is an inescapable ingredient of life. Even for
familiar situations--such as crossing a street--some level of
uncertainty is involved. Past experience is relevant for decisions
involving the future but contexts change aqnd new elements
affecting risk may unexpectedly occur. It is not surprising that
in a world of complex systems involving technological change,
highly coupled human and natural systems, and a kaleidoscope
of social and political institutions high levels of uncertainty
challenge existing assessment methods and familiar decision
procedures. This paper explores opportunities and dilemmas in
confronting these issues.
December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD