Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts T4-K.1 Stern, PC; National Research Council; pstern@nas.edu Design principles for governing risks from emerging technologies Technological innovations are developed and promoted for the benefits they are expected to bring. The benefits tend to be readily apparent, with data that are ostensible and repeatable; the costs, particularly those that are delayed or borne by non-adopters, are usually less so, at least at first. Consequently, initial judgments about the relative benefits and costs of innovations must often be revised in light of experience, in processes that can be contentious. This paper reports on a project that began in the National Research Council’s Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change (now the Board on Environmental Change and Society), which sought to distill general lessons on the governance of emerging technologies. It relied on two sources: (1) induction from experience with emerging technologies, mainly technologies now in place (nuclear power, radioactive waste management, and DNA manipulation) but also at some that were emerging at the time the project began in 2008 (nanotechnology, biotechnology, and information science and technology); and (2) inference from the results of social scientific research on potentially relevant social processes, such as risk perception and management, management of common-pool resources, the workings of international institutions and networks, and science communication and utilization. The paper reports on this project and then proposes a set of design principles for the governance of emerging technological risks, and then briefly discuss how those principles might be applied to consider the risks associated with the extraction of natural gas and oil from shale formations by horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. T2-E.1 Stewart, RN*; Bright, EA; Rose, AN; McGinn, CW; Bhaduri, BL; Oak Ridge National Laboratory; stewartrn@ornl.gov Enriching Environmental Risk Based Decision Support Models with Large Scale, High Resolution Population Data For nearly two decades, the Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance freeware package (SADA) has enabled environmental risk assessors to situate risk analytics within a spatial context. By integrating risk models articulated by EPA Superfund with advanced geospatial methods, methods have been developed for directly inferring risk informed sample designs, remedial designs, cost analysis, and uncertainty analysis within a free and open modeling environment. Currently, these models focus on a hypothetical receptor engaging in contamination under current or future landuse scenarios and do not consider the existing population distribution or sociocultural processes near these impacted areas. In the next expansion of SADA, we integrate Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s LandScan population dataset with the current collection of existing analytics and significantly extend the ability to assess exposure and risks to impacted populations and demographic sub-populations. Explicitly modeling and visualizing the spatial context within which contamination, population dynamics, and exposure occur can substantially inform policy formulation and evaluation. This paper discusses integration of LandScan with SADA, adjustment and expansion of existing analytics, and presents a case study. P.52 Stewart, D*; Glass-Mattie, D; Dorman, D; McConnell, E; Adeshina, F; University of Tennessee and Oak Ridge National Laboratory; dstewart@utk.edu Provisional Advisory Level (PAL) Development for Superwarfarins (Brodifacoum and Bromidalone) PAL values developed for hazardous materials by the US EPA represent general public emergency exposure limits for oral and inhalation exposures corresponding to three different severity levels (1, 2, and 3) for 24-hr, 30-d, 90-d, and 2-yr durations. PAL 1 represents the threshold for mild effects; PAL 2 represents the threshold for serious, irreversible or escape-impairing effects; PAL 3 represents the threshold for lethal effects. PALs have not been promulgated nor have they been formally issued as regulatory guidance. They are intended to be used at the discretion of risk managers in emergency situations when site-specific risk assessments are not available. The mention of trade names does not imply EPA endorsement. PAL values were developed based on the SOP and QAPP requirements. Brodifacoum (CAS No. 56073-10-0) and Bromadiolone (CAS No. 28772-56-7) are both members of the newer generations of anticoagulant rodenticides collectively named superwarfarins. Anticoagulant rodenticides have been used historically as effective means to control populations of mice, rats and other rodents in urban and agricultural settings. All anticoagulants act by preventing the coagulation cascade, which can cause free bleeding that can be fatal. Superwarfarins work by inhibiting vitamin K1 epoxide reductase, which leads to a depletion of vitamin K1 and impairment of blood clotting ability. In humans and animals, Vitamin K1 can be administered after ingestion to act as an antidote to prevent free bleeding. Brodifacoum and bromadiolone are absorbed quickly, distributed primarily to the liver and excreted in the feces, mostly unchanged. Oral PAL values were developed by using human case reports and animal data. Oral PAL 1, 2, and 3 values are 0.017, 0.16, and 1.8 mg/L for 24-hours and NR (not recommended), 0.0025, and 0.0075 mg/L for 30-days. Values are not recommended for 90-day and 2-year oral exposure and all inhalation durations due to insufficient data. M2-F.5 Stillman, M; Consultant; mstillman@kleinfelder.com Risk-based Need Assessments to Enhance Enterprise Program Management Offices In many industries team leaders and organizations are under constant pressure to deliver a portfolio of projects on time and within budget. Project Management Offices (PMO) are set up to address this challenge through the development of standard Project Management processes, and act as a central repository for Project Management knowledge, best practices and lessons learned. The best return on the PMO investment is realized by performing Need Assessments which result in the development of Project Management plans that decrease work flow complexity and increase project savings. Need Assessments are customarily conducted with key functional groups within an organization for the purpose of improving processes by identifying gaps between existing and desired conditions. The fundamental value is derived by gaining deeper insights into project risks from multiple perspectives that lead to improved clarity on the priority and sequence for task implementation. Key stages of the Need Assessment process to be described are: (1) goal setting with PMO Director, (2) data gathering to document existing conditions, (3) open-ended interviews that identify gaps and encourage “out of the box” brainstorming of solutions, (4) risk ranking of issues, (5) initial de-brief with organizational leaders, and (6) findings report to document risk findings and recommendations. Consistency of this process with the risk management framework in ISO 31000 will be highlighted. The collaborative risk assessment stage will be described in detail as it provides the core technical basis for sequencing of response strategies. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts T4-C.3 Suarez, Maria*; Muñoz, Felipe; Universidad de los Andes; mc.suarez151@uniandes.edu.co Flexible framework for the study of dispersion scenarios by accidental events in the transportation of hazardous material Although pipelines have become a safe and efficient mean of transportation for hazardous materials, several accidents have occurred in the past. The total volume of hazardous materials spilled, seems to decrease as improvements in control and pipeline integrity have been implemented. Accidents often occur by a material loss of containment, and these materials can be flammable, explosive or toxic, therefore its emission can become a major accident. Taking this into account, a-priori risk analysis is a tool used to take precautionary measures with respect to potential accidents and therefore scenario building is implemented since it has proved to be a powerful and effective tool which enables to explore and clarify present actions and subsequent consequences. Accidental scenarios depend on site’s characteristics and conditions, topography, weather, moisture, soil type, proximity to sensitive resources (e.g. water sources) among others, generating different scenarios on the right of way or far field scenarios. This paper aims to analyze spill path scenarios taking into account world and Latin American accidents in order to define pipeline failure types and conditions. However limited historical data concerning pipeline accidents in Latin America generates uncertainty and lack of information needed to establish frequencies and severities. Determining simulation parameters that can affect pool formation supports the construction of a guide which facilitates pipeline accidental scenarios analysis, considering special characteristics, such as Colombian topography (i.e pronounced slopes), leading to far field scenarios. As a consequence, prediction of arrival times considering flow directions, amount of infiltrated and evaporated material, using water quality models helps to establish faster response times. The inclusion of atypical scenarios under Colombian topography (i.e steep slopes in Andean region) allows limiting generation of scenarios right of way scenarios. T2-D.2 Suppes, L*; Canales, R; Gerba, C; Reynolds, K; The University of Wisconsin - Eau Claire and The University of Arizona; suppeslm@uwec.edu Risk of Cryptosporidium Infection to Recreational Swimmers in Swimming Pools Infection risk estimates from swimming in treated recreational water venues are lacking and needed to identify vulnerable populations and water quality improvement needs. Currently, state and local health departments lack standardized pool safety regulations since there is no U.S. federal pool code. Infection risk differs among populations because ingestion, visit frequency, and swim duration depend on activity and age. Objectives of this study were to estimate per-swim and annual Cryptosporidium infection risks in adults (greater than 18), children (18 or less), lap, and leisure swimmers (splashing, playing, diving, wading, standing, and sitting). Risks were estimated using oocyst concentration data from the literature, and new experimental data collected in this study on swimmer ingestion, activity, and pool-use frequency. The average estimated per-swim risk of Cryptosporidium infection was 3.7 x 10-4 infections/swim event. We estimated 3.3 x 10-2 infections occur each year from swimming in treated recreational water venues, which exceeds fresh and marine water swimming risk limits set by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (8 and 19 x 10-3 infection/year, respectively). Leisure swimmers had the highest annual risk estimate of 2.6 x 10-1 infections/year. Results suggest standardized pool water quality monitoring for Cryptosporidium, development of interventions that reduce intentional ingestion, and improvement of oocyst removal from pool water are needed. Leisure swimmers were the most vulnerable sub-population, and should be targeted in healthy swimming education campaigns. W3-B.3 Swenberg, J*; Moeller, M; Lu, K; Yu, R; Andrews Kingon, G; Lai, Y; Edrissi, B; Dedon, P; University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Massachussetts Institute of Technology; jswenber@email.unc.edu Mode of action studies on inhaled formaldehyde causing leukemia IARC, NTP and EPA conclude formaldehyde causes human leukemia based on epidemiology studies. In contrast, nasal squamus cell carcinoma but not leukemia are found in animal bioassays. Formaldehyde is formed in all cells due to natural metabolism. Inhalation studies in rats & nonhuman primates (NHP) using [13CD2]-formaldehyde allow endogenous & exogenous formaldehyde DNA adducts to be accurately measured using ultrasensitive nanoUPLC-MS/MS. Endogenous N2-OH-methyl-dG adducts are found in all tissues examined, but [13CD2]- N2-OH-methyl-dG adducts are only found in nasal respiratory DNA. In NHP exposed to 2 ppm formaldehyde for up to 28 days, no [13CD2]- N2-OH-methyl-dG adducts are found (sensitivity to quantify 1 adduct in 1010 dG). Likewise, no [13CD2]- N2-OH-methyl-dG adduct are found (sensitivity to measure 1 adduct in 13 billion dG)in mononuclear white blood cells. Only endogenous N-terminal valine globin adducts and WBC DNA adducts of formaldehyde present in rats & NHP exposed to [13CD2]-formaldehyde, showing inhaled formaldehyde does not reach circulating blood in an active form. Finally, N6-formyllysine was measured with LC-MS/MS in tissues of rats & NHP. All tissues examined had formyllysine, but only nasal tissue also had [13CD2]- formyllysine. Collectively, the total lack of [13CD2]-labeled biomarkers reaching distant sites including blood & bone marrow does not support inhaled formaldehyde causing leukemia. In contrast, an expanding literature demonstrating endogenous aldehydes damages hematopoietic stem cells if either Fanconi Anemia genes or ALDH2 genes are knocked out. Under such conditions, mice spontaneously develop leukemia with no external chemical exposure. Furthermore, 1/3 of the myelogenous leukemia patients have deficiencies of aldehyde dehydrogenase expression, particularly ALDH1A1 and ALDH3A1. It is imperative that the role of aldehyde dehydrogenases be examined in epidemiology studies of human leukemia in view of the lack of exposure to hematopoietic cells to better explain the causes of leukemia. W3-I.3 Tabibzadeh, M*; Meshkati, N; University of Southern California; m.tabibzadeh@gmail.com A Risk Analysis Study to Systematically Address the Critical Role of Human and Organizational Factors in Negative Pressure Test for the Offshore Drilling Industry According to the Presidential National Commission report on the BP Deepwater Horizon (DWH) blowout, there is need to “integrate more sophisticated risk assessment and risk management practices” in the oil industry. In addition, National Academy of Engineering and National Research Council report on the same accident recommends that “the United States should fully implement a hybrid regulatory system that incorporates a limited number of prescriptive elements into a proactive, goal-oriented risk management system for health, safety, and the environment.” Reviewing the literature of the offshore drilling industry indicates that most of the developed risk analysis methodologies do not fully and systematically address contribution of Human and Organizational Factors (HOFs) in accident causation. This is while results of a long-term study (1988-2005) of more than 600 well documented major failures in offshore structures show that approximately 80% of those failures are due to HOFs. This paper introduces both a conceptual risk analysis framework and a Bayesian belief network to address the critical role of HOFs in conducting and interpreting Negative Pressure Test (NPT), which according to experts, is a critical step in well integrity during offshore drilling. Although the introduced conceptual framework has been developed based on the analyses and lessons learned from the BP Deepwater Horizon accident and the conducted NPT, the application of this framework is neither limited to the NPT nor to the DWH case. In fact, it can be generalized for risk analysis of future oil and gas drillings as well. In summary, significance and contribution of this paper is based on three main factors: introducing both qualitative and quantitative risk assessment frameworks, analyzing HOFs as a main contributing cause of offshore drilling accidents, and concentrating on the NPT misinterpretation as a primary factor that affected the loss of well control and the subsequent blowout on the DWH. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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