Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts W2-E.2 Toccalino, PL*; Gilliom, RJ; Lindsey, BD; Rupert, MG; U.S. Geological Survey; ptocca@usgs.gov Pesticides in groundwater of the United States: Occurrence and decadal-scale changes This study by the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Assessment Program evaluated (1) the occurrence of pesticides in groundwater and (2) decadal-scale changes in pesticide concentrations over a 20-year period. Untreated groundwater samples were collected from 1,309 wells located in 60 nationally distributed well networks and analyzed for as many as 83 pesticide compounds. Each well network was sampled once during 1993–2001 (Cycle 1) and once during 2002–2011 (Cycle 2). Shallow (mostly monitoring) wells were sampled in agricultural and urban areas. Deeper (mostly domestic and public) wells, which tap major aquifers used for water supply, were sampled in mixed land-use areas. Pesticides were frequently detected—about two-thirds of the samples from agricultural areas and about half of the samples from urban areas contained one or more pesticides. More than one-third of samples from major aquifers contained one or more pesticides, but concentrations seldom (about 1% of samples) exceeded human-health benchmarks. The five most frequently detected pesticide compounds—atrazine, deethylatrazine, simazine, metolachlor, and prometon—each were detected in 9% to 36% of all samples, and each had statistically significant changes in concentrations between Cycle 1 and Cycle 2 in one or more land uses. For all agricultural land-use networks combined, concentrations of atrazine, metolachlor, and prometon decreased from Cycle 1 to Cycle 2; prometon concentrations also decreased in urban areas. Conversely, for all major aquifers combined, concentrations of atrazine, deethylatrazine, and simazine increased; deethylatrazine concentrations also increased in urban areas. The magnitude of these concentration changes from decade to decade was small, and ranged from 0.001 to 0.09 µg/L (35- to 230,000-fold less than benchmarks). More than half of the individual well networks showed statistically significant changes in one or more pesticide concentrations between Cycles 1 and 2. P.13 Tokai, A*; Nakazawa, K; Nakakubo, T; Yamaguchi, H; Kojima, N; Sakagami, M; Higuchi, Y; Nagata, Y; Ishimaru, T; Osaka University; tokai@see.eng.osaka-u.ac.jp Development of practical risk evaluation method with the example of traffic relevant environmental measures Under the multiple risk situations in our daily life, to understand the actual risk condition goes underground the revealed risk is necessary. To grasp it, we examined the method that make up the result of traditional health risk assessment. For this purpose, we identified three objectives in this research project. The first one is to develop risk durability evaluation method and the second one is to apply this method to actual environmental measures especially we examined the transportation related technologies. The third one is to examine the possibility of voluntary action for risk reduction by citizens through questionnaire survey to residents in Osaka prefecture. Main findings were followings. Regarding first task, we developed risk durability evaluation method based on the concept of value of information and trade-off analysis with the example of flame retardant to plastics with the software Analytica. This software enables us to build user friendly model that support to obtain the insight of risk stems from this chemical through graphical user interface. To analyze the uncertainty included in the process of risk assessment of flame retardant, we estimated value of information of specific parameter required for risk estimation. As to the second task, we carried out the risk analysis and lifecycle analysis for three types of environmental measures for automobile industry, they are material substitutions, fuel substitutions and products replacement. We clarified the risk trade-offs for these three types of measures and evaluated relative superiority from the viewpoint of health risk and greenhouse gas emission. Regarding third task, results of 232 valid respondents who were aged 20 or over and lived in Osaka prefecture were obtained. W2-K.2 Tonn, GL*; Guikema, SD; Johns Hopkins University; gtonn2@jhu.edu Power outage analysis for Hurricane Isaac In August 2012, Hurricane Isaac, a Category 2 hurricane, caused extensive power outages in Louisiana. The storm brought high winds, storm surge and flooding to Louisiana, and power outages were extensive and prolonged. Hourly power outage data for the state of Louisiana was collected during the storm and analyzed. This analysis included correlation of hourly power outage figures by zip code with wind, rainfall, and storm surge. Results were analyzed to understand how drivers for power outages differed geographically within the state. Hurricane Isaac differed from many hurricanes due to the significant storm surge and flooding. This analysis provided insight on how rainfall and storm surge, along with wind, contribute to risk of power outages in hurricanes. The results of this analysis can be used to better understand hurricane power outage risk and better prepare for future storms. It will also be used to improve the accuracy and robustness of a power outage forecasting model developed at Johns Hopkins University. W4-F.3 Tonn, BE*; Stiefel, D; Feldman, D; University of Tennessee-Knoxville; dori@utk.edu Past the threshold for existential risks: Balancing existential risk uncertainty and governance Concerns about the potential extinction of the human race are growing. This paper addresses those concerns, and builds on previous research in that area, by presenting research into the conditions under which society ought to implement actions to reduce existential risk. This paper answers the question, “How do types of governance help or hinder society’s response to existential risks?” Specifically, this paper explores the balance between uncertainty; actions to reduce existential risk; philosophical perspectives about existential risk; and types of governance, with special attention for the role of complex adaptive systems. This paper presents two Frameworks for addressing those concerns. The first framework, the Framework for Implementing Actions to Reduce Existential Risk, answers the question, “Under what conditions ought society implement actions to reduce existential risk?” The second framework, the Framework for Governance Responses to Reduce Existential Risk, is based on types of governance and extends the first framework from the perspectives of fragile, rigid, robust, and flexible governance structures with special attention for the role of complex adaptive systems. Specifically, the second framework provides the foundational perspectives from which to identify the ways in which society’s actions might be helped or hindered by actual or perceived complications of governance. Support for different categories of actions to reduce existential risk are different across these governance types, as are the rates at which they help or hinder the societal response. The paper concludes with an assessment of the overall challenges and opportunities revealed by these frameworks. The paper also provides recommendations for reducing existential risk given governance types and the role of complex adaptive systems. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts W2-E.3 Triantafyllidou, S; Le, TH; Gallagher, DL*; Edwards, MA; Virginia Tech; dang@vt.edu Evaluating public health benefits from reductions in drinking water lead levels at US Schools After high drinking water lead concentrations were found in elementary schools in Seattle and Los Angeles, both school districts undertook steps to reduce children’s exposure. This research used reported water lead concentration distributions before and after remediation steps as inputs to the US EPA Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model to estimate the resulting distribution of blood lead levels in exposed children. Sixty-three elementary schools in Seattle and 601 elementary schools in Los Angeles were evaluated. Seattle undertook active remediation measures by installing filters and replacing lead plumbing. The mean first-draw water lead levels across all Seattle schools decreased from 24.4 to 2.1 ppb, and mean 30-second flushed water lead levels decreased from 3.4 to 0.7 ppb. This reduced the estimated percentage of students exceeding a blood lead level of 5 ug/dL from 11.2% to 4.8%, with the post-remediation value primarily attributable to lead exposure from sources other than drinking water. While pre-remediation water lead levels and percent blood level exceedances varied widely from school to school, post remediation risks indicated a much lower variability. The Los Angeles school district used a flushing program to reduce exposure, with limited post-remediation testing. First draw and 30-second samples were 11.0 and 4.0 ppb respectively. Assuming flushing eliminated first-draw exposures, the percent blood level exceedances dropped from 8.6% to 6.0% across the 601 schools. School water lead remediation efforts can therefore be significant in reducing health risks to US elementary students. M3-G.3 Trumbo, CW*; Peek, L; Meyer, MA; Marlatt, H; McNoldy, B; Gruntfest, E; Schubert, W; COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY (1-4,7); UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI (5) UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO COLORADO SPRINGS (6); ctrumbo@mac.com Modeling Hurricane Preparedness and Evacuation Intention Our research team has just completed data collection for a project under support from the National Science Foundation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Dynamics of Hurricane Risk Perception, NSF CMMI-0968273). In this project we have used mail survey methods to study a panel of individuals located in the coastal area of the U.S. extending from Wilmington, North Carolina, to Brownsville, Texas. Study participants were sampled in a spatially random manner within an approximately 10-mile buffer along the coast. The same individuals were surveyed three times at one-year intervals. The initial response rate was 56%, with panel continuation rates of 75% and 85%, yielding a sample size ranging from approximately 650 to 400 depending on configuration. In our analysis, the level of hurricane preparedness and behavioral intention for evacuation are modeled by examining factors including hurricane risk perception, optimistic bias, individual and household vulnerability characteristics, evacuation barriers, and community resilience indicators. This presentation will offer a broad overview of the study and its preliminary results. Findings to date indicate that risk perception can be seen as both an affective and cognitive orientation of the individual, and we have developed a reliable item inventory for its measurement. We also examine optimistic bias for hurricane preparedness and evacuation and find that it is a related but independent factor from risk perception. Also among the results we find that households with disabilities, females, and having less confidence in community resilience is associated with greater levels of hurricane risk perception. Also, disabilities in the household, less hurricane experience, and fewer evacuation barriers (e.g., work or family related, transportation) are associated with a greater intention to evacuate from a major storm. Preparedness is moderately predicted by a number of variables including risk perception. P.99 Trumbo, CW*; Peek, L; Laituri, M; COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY; ctrumbo@mac.com Alternating Hydrologic Extremes: Risk Communication and Weather Whiplash Our focus in this work is on the cascading effects of alternating hydrologic extremes. Possibly as a consequence of climate change there is an increasing likelihood that areas of the world will be undergoing a rapid “weather whiplash” between drought and flood. These alternating extremes pose extraordinary risk to agricultural systems and economies, both rural and urban infrastructures, human population patterns and migration, and the natural ecosystems that we all ultimately depend on. Using the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States (SHELDUS) we accessed some 65,000 county-level records for financial losses from natural hazards over the period 1960-2010. The data were parsed to isolate floods and droughts, and a summary metric was computed to identify the cases in the top 80th and 95th percentiles for total losses (both crop and property damage, in 2000 dollars). By identifying cases that fell in the top 80th percentile for the union of flooding and drought we identified 99 counties that have had the highest cumulative losses from the combined hazard. This focused the data reduction on approximately 4,700 cases. By then parsing the data by geographic area we were able to sort cases by date to identify specific circumstances in which losses from floods and droughts occurred in spatial-temporal proximity. To conclude this phase of the project we will examine historical records such as news sources to gain insight into the consequences of the combined hazard events and how risk was communicated. This approach has identified the most acute cases, we anticipate that continuing analysis will identify broader and more nuanced patterns that will generate additional historical information. We will then seek additional collaborators with expertise in GIS and Atmospheric Science to use climatological data to identify areas where this combined natural hazard may increase under climate change scenarios. P.60 Turley, AT*; Overton, AJ; Marin, K; Henning, CC; ICF International; audrey.turley@icfi.com Implementing Systematic Review for Chemicals with Large Databases Systematic review allows risk assessors to use transparent logic to search for, categorize, and select data for use in chemical risk assessments for deriving toxicity reference values. The need for transparency is particularly important to federal agencies that are placing increased emphasis on stakeholder engagement. In addition, chemicals that may have tens of thousands of references require additional data management strategies beyond existing tools (e.g., EndNote) that allow additional sorting and querying of the results. The DRAGON Screen tool allows for the agile categorization and characterization of studies so that literature can be sorted and prioritized for inclusion in weight of evidence and data analyses. The tool allows the assessment manager to construct multiple and evolving rounds of review. The categories in each round are tailored to the particular chemical and assessment priorities, and new rounds can be added as needed throughout the literature screening process. Two separate data managers categorize the study separately based on title and abstract screening and without knowledge of each others’ selections. Then, a third expert reviews the two sets of categories for a study and resolves any discrepancies. Studies can then pass into the data entry phases. For large database chemicals, the risk assessment team may choose to only pass a set of categories through to the data entry phase. The logic of how this decision was made as well as the general literature flow is stored in the tool and can be provided to the stakeholders for review at any time. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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