Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts W3-A.3 Fiorino, D ; American University; dfiorino@american.edu Policy Learning, Chemicals, and Risk: Can Policy Innovation Keep Up with Technology Change? The context for safe management of chemicals has changed dramatically in the last four decades, since the passage of the Toxic Substances Control Act of 1976. For example, the development of nanotechnologies and synthetic biology have dramatically changed the regulatory contexts, as have other technology changes. The focus of this presentation is on the need for new models of regulation or complements to regulation for responding to these changes in technologies. The rapid changes in the regulatory context mean that the old model of regulation increasingly is poorly-suited to chemical risk management issues. This presentation suggests "policy innovations" that offer ways of managing this new chemicals challenges effectively. Among them are collaborative governance models, new regulatory frameworks, combinations of regulatory and voluntary programs, and third-party codes and certifications. Each of these are linked conceptually by their focus on flexibility, adaptive management, and policy learning. This presentation builds upon the presenter's previous work on oversight of nanotechnology issues and on the need for new models of environmental regulation. T1-K.1 Fitzpatrick, JW*; Schoeny, R; Gallagher, K; Ohanian, EV; U.S Environmental Protection Agency; fitzpatrick.julie@epa.gov EPA’s Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making The Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making was developed by a technical panel of the EPA’s Risk Assessment Forum to be responsive to the decision making needs of the agency. Most importantly, it addresses the recommendations presented in NRC’s Science and Decisions (2009) relative to the design of risk assessments, including planning, scoping, and problem formulation. This Framework will be instrumental in facilitating the implementation of existing and future EPA guidance for conducting human health risk assessments and in improving the utility of risk assessment in informed risk management decision-making process. In accordance with longstanding agency policy, it also emphasizes the importance of scientific review and public, stakeholder and community involvement. This presentation will discuss details of the Framework and associated implementation plans by the agency. W2-J.1 Fitzpatrick, BG*; Angelis, E; Polidan, EJ; Tempest Technologies; fitzpatrick@tempest-tech.com Estimating The Risk of Rabies Entry into The State of Hawaii Considered one of the oldest documented infectious diseases, rabies remains a dangerous zoonotic disease threat today exhibiting a global geographic spread, a broad spectrum of mammalian reservoirs and vectors, and possesses the highest case fatality rate of any disease-causing agent. Transmitted via the saliva of an infected mammal, the rabies virus aggressively attacks the central nervous system and if left untreated is almost always fatal. Health care costs associated with the detection, prevention and control of rabies in the U.S. are estimated to exceed $300M annually. Distinguishing itself from all other U.S. states, Hawaii maintains a rabies-free status and has never reported an indigenous rabies case (animal or human). The state has upheld this status due to a quarantine law enacted in 1912 that requires a post-arrival confinement period of 120 days for imported dogs and cats. Beginning in 1996, the state has conducted a series of risk assessments to identify new alternatives and modifications to the 120-day confinement law, with current law maintaining the 120-day quarantine and providing a very rigorous 5-day quarantine. In this paper, we examine some additional quarantines of interest to the state, including 30-, 60- and 90-day confinements. The procedure we employ uses scenario trees that structure the individual risk components involved in bringing an animal into Hawaii. Using data from a number of rabies epidemiology studies, we estimate parameters for a Bayesian model for risk probabilities, and we present a number of comparisons of rabies introduction likelihoods. M4-A.1 Fitzpatrick, S*; Carrington, C; US Food and Drug Administration; Clark.Carrington@fda.hhs.gov Dietary exposure to inorganic arsenic from food in general and rice in particular. Given its widely appreciated toxic properties, arsenic in food has always been an important topic in food safety. It has also long been known that the organic species of arsenic in seafood is far less toxic than inorganic arsenic in food or water. However, modern chemical analytical methodology has led to the realization that there are many different forms of arsenic in food that a different toxicological properties. At the very least, there are three major categories of arsenic; inorganic arsenic species that are the most toxic, methylated arsenic species that are moderately toxic, and arsenic complexes that are practically nontoxic. While arsenic complexes are the predominant form in fish, and inorganic arsenic is the predominant form in drinking water, arsenic in most foods are comprised of a combination of inorganic and methylated species. Recent survey work conducted by the USFDA as well as other agencies indicates that while most foods have some inorganic arsenic at a relatively constant level, most of the variation in total arsenic concentrations is attributable to the presence of methylated arsenic species in highly varying amounts. In addition to considering the chemical form of arsenic in food, dietary exposure assessments must be tailored to the temporal component of the toxicological evaluation and to the individuals or populations that consume a particular food. Thus, while per capita averages of lifetime intake may serve well as characterizations of public health for some health endpoints (e.g. lifetime cancer risk), risk estimates intended to inform individual consumers are better served by the use of exposure estimates that are based on frequency of consumption. Although drinking water and smoking can also be dominant sources of exposure for some people, the major source of exposure to inorganic arsenic in the United States in the diet. In particular, rice can be the principle source of exposure in individuals and populations who are frequent consumers. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts M4-C.1 Flage, R*; Aven, T; Zio, E; Baraldi, P; University; roger.flage@uis.no Concerns, challenges and directions of development for the issue of representing uncertainty in risk assessment In the analysis of the risk related to rare events that may lead to catastrophic consequences with large uncertainty, it is questionable that the knowledge and information available for the analysis can be reflected properly by probabilities. Approaches other than purely probabilistic ones have been suggested, for example based on interval probabilities, possibilistic measures, or qualitative methods. In the present paper we look into the problem and identify a number of issues which are foundational for its treatment. The foundational issues addressed reflect on the position that “probability is perfect” and take into open consideration the need for an extended framework for risk assessment that reflects the separation that practically exists between analyst and decision maker. P.94 Flander, LB*; Keogh, LA; Ugoni, A; Ait Oaukrim, D; Gaff, C; Jenkins, MA; University of Melbourne; l.flander@unimelb.edu.au “Magical thinking” in high risk cancer families About half of people from mutation-carrying families decline genetic counselling and/or testing to identify their mutation status and risk of colorectal cancer. We report on perceived CRC risk and qualitative analysis of reasons for declining in this group. We studied 26 participants (mean age 43.1 years, 14 women,) in the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry who were relatives of mismatch repair gene mutation carriers; who had not been diagnosed with any cancer at the time of recruitment and who had declined an invitation to attend genetic counselling and/or testing at the time of interview. A structured elicitation protocol was used to capture bounded estimates of perceived risk over the next 10 years. Understanding of genetic testing and CRC risk, reasons for declining testing and self-reported colonoscopy screening were elicited during a 45-minute semi-structured interview. A sub-group of decliners (31%) unconditionally rejected genetic testing compared to conditional decliners who would consider genetic testing in the future. They were confident their decisions would avoid the potential negative impact of testing. Mean perceived 10-year risk of CRC was 54% [95% CI 37, 71] in unconditional decliners, compared with the mean perceived 10-year risk of CRC of 20% [95% CI 5,36] in people who conditionally decline genetic testing. This difference remained after adjusting for potential confounding (age, gender and reported screening colonoscopy). This group perceive themselves to be at about 2.6 times higher risk than conditional decliners. Their biased judgment under perceived high risk may be “magical thinking,” which becomes a heuristic to avoid "tempting fate" (Risen and Gilovich 2008). Defensive motives to protect against threatening health information may contribute to unconditional declining of genetic testing (Etchegary and Perrier 2007). T4-E.3 Flari, V*; Kerins, G; Food and Environment Research Agency; villie.flari@fera.gsi.gov.uk Synthetic Biology: prospective products and applications for food/feed and requirements for regulation During their introductory stages, the development of new materials, products and technologies is often hampered by high levels of uncertainty and knowledge gaps regarding the technical risks and benefits to human health and the environment. Lessons learnt (e.g. from genetic modification technologies) indicate that it is better to introduce these aspects at an early stage of development of such products to assure producers that benefits are properly evaluated and reassure consumers that risks are properly managed under an efficient regulatory regime. Our project brought together a multidisciplinary team with expertise in a wide range of relevant areas, including molecular biology, emerging sciences and technologies, elicitation of expert judgment, risk assessment and risk analysis, uncertainty analysis, social science, decision making, and regulatory frameworks. The team worked together to identify (a) potential synthetic biology food/feed products/applications, and (b) relevant uncertainties and gaps in relation to the UK and EU regulatory frameworks that are currently in place. In collaboration with regulators, external experts (e.g. academia), and major stakeholders (e.g. industry, consumer representatives), the team reviewed the regulatory frameworks, and assessed whether they are sufficient to cover all likely requirements. This work aimed to address challenges that regulatory bodies will face when dealing with synthetic biology products/applications; these would include how to: (a) develop approaches to ensure best protection of human health and environment in the light of so many uncertainties, (b) provide regulatory frameworks that would not overburden and hence hinder the development of new products/ applications, (c) develop transparent decision making approaches that incorporate comprehensive uncertainty analysis and clear communication strategies, (d) ensure public participation in the policy making, and (e) develop appropriate mechanisms for implementation. M2-G.2 Fleishman, LA*; Bruine de Bruin, W; Morgan, MG; Carnegie Mellon University; lfleishm@rand.org Informing Science Teachers’ Knowledge and Preferences of Low-Carbon Electricity Technologies through a Continuing Education Workshop Do U.S. middle school and high school teachers have the knowledge they need to correct students’ common misunderstandings about strategies to limit emissions of carbon dioxide from the generation of electricity? This paper examines that question with a sample of 6th-12th grade science teachers from Pennsylvania. We find that many of these teachers shared public misunderstandings such as: believing that all Pennsylvania’s electricity needs can be met with wind and solar power, underestimating the cost of solar power, believing nuclear plants emit CO2, and being unsure whether it is possible to capture and sequester carbon dioxide. We found that teachers with more pro-environmental attitudes were more likely to have incorrect knowledge about these topics. In a second stage of the study, we presented teachers with comprehensive and balanced information materials about electricity technologies as part of a continuing-education workshop. Overall, teachers who entered the workshop with less knowledge learned more from our information materials. Moreover, teachers were able to use the materials to form consistent preferences for technologies and to construct low-carbon portfolios of these technologies that were similar to preferences reported in previous work with members of the general public. Teachers reported that the information materials and continuing-education course were useful, and could be easily adapted to their high-school classrooms. We conclude that the materials and continuing-education workshop could benefit science teachers and ultimately their students. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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