Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts
W2-H.3 Nilsen, M*; Hawkins, B; Cox, J; Gooding, R; Whitmire,
M; Battelle Memorial Institute and the Department of
Homeland Security Chemical Security Analysis Center;
nilsenm@battelle.org
Conquering the Iron Triangle of SME Elicitation
The Chemical Terrorism Risk Assessment (CTRA) is a DHS
CSAC funded program that estimates the risk among chemical
terrorism attack scenarios and assists in prioritizing mitigation
strategies. The CTRA relies on Subject Matter Expert (SME)
elicitation of Law Enforcement and Intelligence Communities to
quantify the threat and vulnerability parameters associated
with various attack scenarios, as well as the capabilities of
terrorist organizations. The term “Iron Triangle” is frequently
used to describe situations with three interconnected
constraints in which one constraint cannot be changed without
changing at least one of the other constraints. One canonical
example of this concept is the Iron Triangle of project
management: Scope, Schedule and Budget. The challenges of
SME elicitation can also be characterized as an Iron Triangle of
Level of Detail, Data Quality, and SME Fatigue. Level of Detail
in this context can be defined as the resolution of the elicitation
results with respect to capturing intricacies and dependencies
among the components of attack scenarios. Data Quality in
elicitation terms can be defined as the level to which the results
accurately capture the analysts’ opinions. SME Fatigue is a
commonly used term in elicitations referring to the level of
effort, measured in both hours and number of in-person
meetings, required for an SME to participate. Innovative
techniques, such as interactive tools, utility models, and
YouTube-style video clips, are discussed as methods to conquer
the Iron Triangle of elicitation and improve both the level of
detail and quality of data, while reducing SME fatigue. The
impact of these techniques will be highlighted by comparing
past CTRA elicitation procedures with more recent CTRA
elicitation techniques.
W3-K.1 North, DW; NorthWorks, Inc. ;
northworks@mindspring.com
Probability theory for inductive reasoning: The
"necessarist" viewpoint as an alternative, and
supplement, to subjective probability.
Many practitioners of decision analysis (applied Bayesian
decision theory) regard its foundation for the use of probability
theory as the axiomatization by Leonard J. Savage, and the
procedure for assessing probabilities as subjective judgment in
choosing among wagers. Another tradition, the “necessarist”
approach, views probability theory as the logic for scientific
inference. That is, judgments are in principle built up from
available information using an explicit formal process, rather
than dependent on the individual cognition of subjects as the
source for the probability judgments - with the multiple
potentials for biases that have been explored in psychological
research. The basis for the necessarist approach can be found
in the writings of Laplace, two centuries ago. Early twentieth
century scholars include economist John Maynard Keynes and
geophysicist Harold Jeffreys. Later contributors include Bruno
de Finetti, physicist Richard T. Cox, and physicist E.T. Jaynes,
whose 2003 book, Probability Theory: The Logic of Science
provides one of the best recent expositions of the necessarist
viewpoint. We review this history and provide an overview of
how symmetry or invariance, generalizations of Laplace’s
Principle of Insufficient Reason, can provide the basis for
choosing probabilities in a way that avoids recourse to
subjective judgments about wagers.
P.86 Ohkubo, C; Japan EMF Information Center;
ohkubo@jeic-emf.jp
Risk Communication Activities of Health Risks by the
Japan EMF Information Center
In response to the World Health Organization (WHO)’s
publication of the Environmental Health Criteria monograph
(EHC) No. 238 and WHO Fact Sheet No. 322 on extremely low
frequency (ELF) electromagnetic fields, the Japanese Ministry
of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) set up a Working
Group on Electric Power Facility and EMF Policy in June 2007.
The Working Group compiled their report in which their
recommendations to the METI were incorporated. To address
issues related to potential long-term effects of ELF-EMF, the
Working Group recommended that a neutral and permanent
EMF information centre should be established to promote risk
communication and facilitate peoples’ understanding based on
scientific evidences. In response to this recommendation, the
Japan EMF Information Centre (JEIC) was established in July
2008. JEIC is financed from donations by stakeholders. The
Administration Audit Committee was founded in order to ensure
and monitor the neutrality and transparency of JEIC operations.
The JEIC institutional system is determined to develop itself
into a world-class risk communication center with expertise in
EMF. JEIC’s philosophy and purpose are to provide
easy-to-understand scientific information on EMF and its health
effects and minimize the gap of risk perception among
stakeholders and promote risk communication from a fair
perspective. JEIC’s activities to achieve its purposes include
(1)Creating an EMF information database including EMF
research database, (2)Communication with mass media,
(3)Organizing public meetings, (4)Q&A by telephone and
emails.
P.117 Ohno, K*; Asami, M; Matsui, Y; National Institute of
Public Health, National Institute of Public Health, Hokkaido
University, Japan; ohno-k@niph.go.jp
Questionnaire survey on water ingestion rates for various
types of liquid and the seasonal differences between
summer and winter
Water ingestion rates not only from community water supply
but also from commercial beverages were surveyed to obtain
the water ingestion rates for various types of water and to
investigate the seasonal differences. The surveys were
conducted during winter and summer in 2012. As a general
population of the ages 20–79 in Japan, members of an Internet
research company were invited and 1188 individuals in winter
and 1278 in summer responded. The respondents were asked to
record the daily water intake volume of each kind of water in
arbitrary two working days and one non-working day during the
research period. The kinds of water were non-heated and
heated tap water as a beverage, soup made from tap water,
bottled water, and commercial beverage including alcoholic
drinks. There were no much differences of water ingestion rate
among the three days; the first day’s results were presented
hereafter. The mean water intakes from all kinds of water in
summer and winter were 1936 and 1638 mL/day, respectively
(95%iles: 3570 and 2900 mL/day). The mean water intake in
summer is 1.2 times greater than in winter. Nevertheless, the
mean water intakes from tap water including soup in summer
and winter were 1159 and 1124 mL/day, respectively (95%iles:
2400 and 2200 mL/day); there were small seasonal differences.
The main component that caused seasonal differences was the
commercial beverage. The mean intakes in summer and winter
were 635 and 437 mL/day, respectively (95%iles: 2500 and
1200 mL/day). With respect to tap water intake, large seasonal
differences of non-heated water were observed. The mean
intake in summer was 2.1 times greater than in winter (545 and
255 mL/day; 95%iles: 1676 and 950 mL/day). As conclusions,
seasonal differences of water intake should be considered in
risk assessment, especially in microbial risk assessment; the
default water ingestion rate of 2 L/day may not always be most
appropriate in risk assessment depending on the types of water
taken into account.
December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD