Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

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SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts T2-H.2 DuMont, M. K.; Office of the Secretary of Defense; Malia.dumont@osd.mil Defining Risk to the Defense Strategy The Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy assists the Secretary of Defense in defining strategic risks and trade-offs in order to inform both short- and long-term policy decisions. This paper will consider the challenges of incorporating risk into defense policy decision-making, including how the risk picture changes with different defense strategies and the differences between contingency risks and enduring risks. It will also highlight the unique aspects of the defense environment that affect risk identification, assessment, and mitigation; among them are the size and scope of the defense establishment and the fact that some missions are “no fail.” It will use examples to illuminate how senior defense officials use risk in deciding between alternative strategic options. W3-I.2 EKANEM, NJ*; MOSLEH, A; University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA; nekanem@umd.edu A Model-based, Scenario-driven Human Reliability Analysis Method As a discipline, Human reliability analysis (HRA) aims to identify, model, and quantify human failure events (HFE) in the context of an accident scenario within probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Despite all the advances made so far in developing HRA methods, many issues still exist which include; the lack of an explicit causal model that incorporates relevant psychological and cognitive theories in its core human performance model, inability to explicitly model interdependencies between influencing factors on human performance, lack of consistency, traceability and reproducibility in HRA analysis. These issues have contributed to the variability in results seen in the applications of the different HRA methods and also in cases where the same method is applied by different HRA analysts. In an attempt to address these issues, a framework for a “model-based HRA” methodology has been recently proposed which incorporates strong elements of current HRA good practices, leverages lessons learned from empirical studies and the best features of existing and emerging HRA methods. It is aimed at enabling more credible, consistent, and accurate qualitative and quantitative HRA analysis. We are presenting the set of steps for the practical implementation of the methodology, covering both the qualitative and quantification phases. Bayesian Belief networks have been developed to explicitly model the influence and interdependencies among the different components (HFEs, error modes, contextual factors) of this methodology for more accurate HEP estimation. These models will have the flexibility to be modified for interface with several existing HRA quantification methods and also used to demonstrate a cause-based explicit treatment of dependencies among HEPs which is not adequately addressed by any other HRA method. While the specific instance of this method is used in Nuclear Power Plants, the methodology itself is generic and can be applied in other industries and environments. T4-A.2 El Haimar, AE*; Santos, JS; The George Washington University; elhaimar@gwu.edu Stochastic Input-Output Modeling of Influenza Pandemic Effects on Interdependent Workforce Sectors Influenza pandemic is a serious disaster that can pose significant disruptions to the workforce and associated economic sectors. This paper examines the impact of influenza pandemic on workforce availability within an interdependent set of economic sectors. In particular, it presents a simulation and analysis of the impacts of such a disaster on the economic sectors in a given region. We introduce a stochastic simulation model based on the dynamic input-output model to capture the propagation of pandemic consequences across the National Capital Region (NCR). The analysis conducted in this paper is based on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic data. Two metrics were used to assess the impacts of the influenza pandemic on the economic sectors: (i) inoperability, which measures the percentage gap between the as-planned output and the actual output, and (ii) economic loss, which quantifies the monetary value of the degraded output. The inoperability and economic loss metrics generate two different rankings of the economic sectors. Results show that most of the critical sectors in terms of inoperability are sectors that are related to hospitals and healthcare providers. On the other hand, most of the sectors that are critically ranked in terms of economic loss are sectors with significant total production outputs in the NCR region such as federal government agencies. Therefore, policy recommendations relating to potential risk mitigation and recovery strategies should take into account the balance between the inoperability and economic loss metrics. Although the present study is applied to the influenza pandemic disaster in the NCR region, it is also applicable to other disasters and other regions. P.92 Eller, EG*; Calderon, AA; Stephenson Disaster Management Institute, Louisiana State University; mail@ericeller.de Managing communication in times of crisis through ambiguity: A framework for crisis communication It has been suggested that the control of ambiguity as part of a crisis communication strategy can be an effective mechanism to manage and affect the perception of organizations by their stakeholders. Previous research on the perception of ambiguity suggests that positive and negative effects can be attained by both: (1) the communicating organization (e.g. through flexibility, credibility, and other outcomes) and (2) the recipient of the message (e.g. stakeholders with varied levels of trust, confusion, etc.). The purpose of the presented work is to contribute to the understanding of how, if any, ambiguity should consciously be managed in crisis communication. We consider ambiguity as a multidimensional construct, so we argue that in crisis communication, ambiguity can be found and managed on several levels such as in the content of the message, in the context of the relationship between the communicating parties, and in the form and context of the communication. We also suggest several factors of the recipient of the message affecting the interpretation and impact of ambiguity. The present work offers a practical framework for the management of ambiguity in crisis communication based on prior research and critiqued by a group of experts. This paper presents through translational research an applied research framework for the use of scholars and decision makers at all levels, while taking into consideration their perspectives, experiences, concerns, comments and ideas during Hurricane Katrina (2005) and the Deepwater Horizon BP Oil Spill (2010). We believe that the presented framework offers a new perspective on the management of ambiguity in times of crisis and thereby provides a basis for future research and also provides a practical framework that can be used to collect data to further educate the field of crisis communication. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts P.7 Elmontsri, ME; Higher Institute of Occupational Safety and Health; mustafa@oshc.org.ly Risk Perception in Libya: An Overview “Risk” has become increasingly topical in the recent decades in the Western Countries based on a socio-psychological approach. The aims of those studies were to understand how people react and perceive specific types of risks which helps decision and policy makers in understanding what the society is worried about and how such risks affecting their decisions. The science of risk analysis has been studied in details in the developed world whereas in developing countries such type of research remains limited. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to examine the ways in which Libyan people perceive the various societal risks that confront them by adopting the psychometric paradigm, which involves using a survey strategy to obtain the required data. It is aimed that this piece of research provides a valuable and crucial insight into the current risk perception of the Libyan public. It will also provide a starting base-line for further research in this field. P.147 Enger, KS; Murali, B; Birdsell, D; Gurian, P; Wagner, DM; Mitchell, J*; Michigan State University; jade@msu.edu EVALUATING LONG TERM INACTIVATION OF BACILLUS SPORES ON COMMON SURFACES Bacillus spores resist inactivation, but the extent of their persistence on common surfaces is unclear. This work addresses knowledge gaps regarding biothreat agents in the environment in order to reduce uncertainty in related risk assessment models. Studies were conducted to investigate the long term inactivation of B. anthracis and three commonly used surrogate organisms -B. cereus, B. atrophaeus, and B. thuringiensis. Models of inactivation kinetics were subsequently evaluated for fit. Spores were applied to 25 cm2 rectangles of three materials: laminate countertop, stainless steel, and polystyrene Petri dish. They remained at 22ºC and 50% relative humidity. Viable spores were measured at 1, 30, 90, 196, and 304 days by swabbing rectangles and eluting swabs in phosphate buffered saline. After serial dilution, colonies were grown and counted. R (cran.r-project.org) was used to fit persistence models to the data: exponential, logistic, Juneja and Marks 1 (JM1), Juneja and Marks 2 (JM2), Gompertz, Weibull, lognormal, gamma, biphasic spline, and double exponential. B. thuringiensis counts increased at 24 hours on all materials, with a subsequent decline. Several experiments showed evidence of a U shape; decrease followed by an increase in spore counts (B. anthracis & B. atrophaeus on laminate; B. anthracis & cereus on steel). Spores on polystyrene showed little inactivation. The maximum inactivation was 56% (B. atrophaeus spores inactivated on steel at 196 days). Fitting models to the data from laminate and steel indicated that the gamma, lognormal, JM1, and JM2 models fitted the data better than other models (by lowest BIC, or within 2 units of the lowest BIC). Models fitted to data from the polystyrene material were uninformative because little inactivation was observed. Spore inactivation was not loglinear. U-shaped inactivation curves might be explained by lower adhesion to the surface as the spores age, enhancing recovery. T1-D.4 England, M; Brouwer, A; Gale, P*; AHVLA; paul.gale@ahvla.gsi.gov.uk Modelling the risks of introduction of ticks infected with Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus into GB Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) is a tick-borne zoonosis. Recently, large outbreaks of CCHFV have occurred in new foci in south-east Europe and the Balkans, most notably in Turkey. Migratory birds have previously been suggested as a factor in the spread of CCHFV into Europe but here for the first time we present data for international horse movements as a potential risk factor in the spread of CCHFV-infected ticks. The numbers of CCHFV-infected unfed adult ticks in GB that could potentially bite and infect a human from these two pathways were predicted and compared. CCHFV has never been detected in GB and no infected ticks have been reported on birds or horses in GB. GB does not have competent Hyalomma spp. tick vectors for CCHFV and transmission within GB is only a theoretical possibility assumed here. A spatial analysis of GB under current climatic and land cover conditions predicted the areas of GB where imported Hyalomma spp. ticks could survive to the next life stage following detachment from imported horses or migratory birds. Hyalomma spp. ticks would enter GB on birds as nymphs and on horses as fed and mated adults. A total of 143 CCHFV-infected unfed adult Hyalomma spp. ticks was predicted to be present in GB as a result of importations on horses between 1st April and 31st July each year under current habitat conditions. For the same time period, a total of 11 CCHFV-infected Hyalomma spp. adult ticks was predicted to be present in GB as a result of importations on migratory birds. Although a greater number of CCHFV-infected ticks were imported into GB on migratory birds each year than on horses, the ability of each female to lay an average of 6,500 eggs following detachment in GB led to an overall greater number of CCHFV-infected ticks that could bite a human from the horse pathway than from the bird pathway.Empirical data would be required to justify these predictions. T4-B.1 Evans, AM*; Rice, GE; Teuschler, LK; Wright, JM; Oak Ridge Institute of Science and Education; evans.amandam@epa.gov Using Secondary Data to Evaluate Diverse Groups of Chemical and Nonchemical Stressors in Cumulative Risk Assessment A main impediment of performing cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) is having data for multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors in the same individuals or populations. Therefore, secondary data analysis can be utilized as a screening approach to integrate population characteristics, as well as time/activity patterns, and exposure distributions to multiple stressors. Two CRA case studies will be examined to highlight potential challenges of integrating heterogeneous data. The issue of dissimilar variables across data source (i.e., NHANES vs. Census) was encountered in the first case study (i.e., joint noise and volatile organic compound (VOC) exposure related to hearing impairment); therefore, many important variables (e.g., time activity patterns) were ultimately excluded from the analysis and were only examined in sensitivity analyses (e.g., the average decrease in noise exposure across all populations due to spending 90% of time indoors). Spatial misalignment (i.e., data collected at different scales and/or resolutions) is a common issue in secondary data analysis that was also experienced in the first case study where noise and VOC exposures were estimated at the area and individual level, respectively. To address this issue, we extrapolated area level VOC estimates from the individual estimates, this forced all subpopulations in the same area to have the same average exposure; therefore, we were unable to evaluate subpopulation differences in VOC exposure within areas of similar noise exposure. The second case study addresses quantifying nonchemical stressors, specifically chronic psychosocial stress. Despite these noted challenges, the advantages of secondary data analysis for informing CRAs include identification of population vulnerabilities and differential exposures that can be used by risk management and public health officials to prioritize resources regarding screening, intervention, and prevention. The views expressed in this abstract are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. EPA. December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD
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