Abstracts (PDF file, 1.8MB) - Society for Risk Analysis

SRA 2013 Annual Meeting Abstracts
P.49 Yuyama, A*; Kajitani, Y; Central Research Institute of
Electric Power Industry; yuyama@criepi.denken.or.jp
Recovery estimation model of thermal power plants
damaged by complex hazards -Case of the 2011
Tohoku-oki Earthquake
The 2011 Tohoku-oki Earthquake and the resulting nuclear
accidents at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant has caused
power shortages in Japan. 18 thermal power plants (39 units)
located in Kanto and Tohoku region were affected by
earthquake and tsunami and, as a result, about 30% of thermal
power generation capacity in East Japan was lost. This was the
most severe accident in thermal power plants in Japan and
became one of the main causes of the power crisis. In order to
secure stable power supply, restoration of the damaged plants
was carried out immediately after the disaster as well as other
remedial measures such as installation of emergency power
sources. All affected plants except one scrapped unit have
resumed operation by April 2013. Clarifying damage and
recovery mechanism of thermal power plants due to such large
scale, complex hazards is necessary for the analysis of power
shortage risk for future disasters. Thus, we examine the
relationships between recovery duration and various factors
such as observed seismic ground motion, tsunami height,
failure mode, and restoration policy. In addition to these
internal factors, it is shown that the damage situation of
infrastructure that plants depend on such as the disruption of
industrial water supply could delay the restoration.
M4-G.5 Zacharias, CA*; Bronfman, NC; Cifuentes, LA; Jimenez,
RB; Pontificia Universidad Catolica De Chile; cazachar@uc.cl
A longitudinal study of risk perception: The case of Chile
Chile has experienced several social and cultural changes
during the last 15 years. Per-capita income growth and political
stability have placed Chile in a leading position, becoming the
first South American country to join the OECD in 2010.
Development has produced many changes in society. Social ills
are a now primary concern, leading to laws controlling abuse of
alcohol and drugs, and to efforts to reduce inequality in health
and educational services. Environmental concerns have
switched somehow from local and regional problems, such as
particulate air pollution and wastewater pollution to global
issues, such as climate change. Also, natural disasters have
affected the population. In 2010, Chile suffered an 8.9
magnitude earthquake and tsunami, something not experienced
by the Chilean population since 1960. With all these changes, it
is expected that public risk perception might have changed. The
main objective of this investigation is to assess the change in
risk perception in the last decade. To achieve this, we
characterized current public concerns and perceptions of risk,
and contrasted them with those quantified and reported a
decade ago by the study of Bronfman and Cifuentes (2003).
Based on the psychometric paradigm, and using a similar
survey to the one implemented before, we studied the
differences in perceptions of risk, benefit and acceptability for
40 activities, substances or technologies. Differences in risk
perceptions regarding natural hazards, environmental hazards
and social ills were studied and analyzed. Additionally,
geographical and socio-economical differences were explored,
and differences between laypeople and experts’ risk
perceptions where also investigated.
P.85 Zacharias, C.A.; Jimenez, R.B.*; Bronfman, N.C.;
Universidad Andres Bello; rjimenez@unab.cl
Improving natural disaster risk communication
strategies: Characterizing public trust in institutions
involved in natural disaster management in Chile
In recent years, natural disasters in Chile have tested the
response capacity of local authorities, revealing significant
weaknesses in the way that the these risks are currently
assessed, managed and communicated to the public. Several
studies suggest that public trust in institutions in charge of
managing complex risks such as natural disasters, has a
significant influence on public attitudes towards decisions and
initiatives that emerge from such institutions. Therefore, the
development of effective natural disaster communication
strategies must address public concerns, preferences and levels
of public trust in relevant actors in disaster prevention, warning
and response. So far, the extent to which Chilean trust local
institutions in charge of communicating and informing the
community about natural disaster risks remains unknown. To
fill this void, this study aimed at characterizing the degree of
public trust in institutions responsible for risk communication
and education of natural hazards in Chile. Chileans’ trust in ten
institutions with relevant roles in natural disaster risk
communication in Chile (government, scientific community,
NGOs and others) will be characterized using a survey. For
each institution, participants will rate a set of six observable
variables that account for two dimension of institutional trust
(competence-based trust and integrity-based trust) using a
5-point Likert scale. The survey will be implemented in July
2013. To better represent Chilean population, this survey will
be administered in four major Chilean cities: Iquique, Santiago,
Valparaiso and Concepcion. Data from the survey will be
analyzed using descriptive statistics and confirmatory factor
analysis. Results from the present study will provide a useful
tool for decision makers in natural disaster risk management,
especially for relevant actors and governmental agencies in
charge of developing and implementing risk communication,
information and education strategies.
T3-E.2 Zaleski, R*; Gaborek, BJ; Qian, H; Bellin, CA; Dellarco,
M; Egeghy, P; Heard, N; Jolliet, O; Lander, DR; Tanir, JY;
ExxonMobil Biomedical Sciences, Inc.;
rosemary.t.zaleski@exxonmobil.com
Exposure Bands for Tiered Exposure Assessment
Decision-Making
A goal of the ILSI Health and Environmental Sciences
Institute’s RISK21 project is to move risk assessment forward
into the 21st Century, including maximizing and extending use
of available data and tools. One objective is to assess if
available exposure data and tools can be utilized in a
“high-throughput” methodology analogous to advancements in
toxicological sciences. To meet this goal, RISK21 has explored
the applicability of exposure banding using existing exposure
tools and data as an early tier in the overall RISK21 approach.
Exposure banding in this context refers to the grouping of
substances based on attributes such as physicochemical
properties and activities/uses and predicting corresponding
exposure concentrations associated with these attributes.
Available exposure models and approaches were evaluated and
several were identified that could readily be used to develop
exposure bands: the European Centre for Ecotoxicology and
Toxicology of Chemicals Targeted Risk Assessment (ECETOC
–TRA) tool (worker and consumer); European Solvent Industry
Group’s Generic Exposure Scenario Risk and Exposure Tool
(EGRET) (consumer); and the European Union System for the
Evaluation of Substances (EUSES)-based approach of Verdonck
et al. (environmental). Look-up tables of exposure and/or risk
bands were developed based upon these tools and evaluated for
utility within the RISK21 tiered exposure framework. Strengths,
limitations and areas for future refinement that could advance
this type of approach will also be discussed. This abstract does
not necessarily reflect U.S. EPA policy.
December 8-11, 2013 - Baltimore, MD