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008 UNIT 1: WHERE DO WE STAND? THE STATE OF THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT A shift in largescale weather patterns such as depression tracks could greatly alter the variability and the extremes of weather patterns. The greatest concern about global warming is that it is causing climate change. Computer models predict that the heating of the earth’s atmosphere will alter atmospheric and oceanic temperatures as well as air circulation and weather patterns. This could result in: • ALTERED RAINFALL PATTERNS Rainfall is expected to increase in the middle and high latitude continents and decrease in the lower latitudes. This will cause flooding and erosion in some regions, and drought in others. Boreal forests and permafrost areas are expected to undergo major changes. Coastline ecosystems, flatlands and small islands risk disappearing altogether. Changes in water availability will affect crop yields and increase the incidence of vector-borne diseases. For example there has already been a global resurgence of malaria, dengue fever and cholera. • SHIFT IN CLIMATE ZONES Projected changes in rainfall and temperature for the next 50 years could result in a shift of climate zones by several hundred kilometres towards the poles. Flora and fauna will lag behind the climate shifts and find themselves in ‘hostile’ environments. As some species will not be able to adapt to such rapid changes in habitat, species will become extinct in greater numbers than before. • INCREASE IN THE FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY OF STORMS A shift in large-scale weather patterns such as depression tracks could greatly alter the variability and the extremes of weather patterns. For example, intense storms usually only develop around oceans that are warmer than 26°C. Global warming means larger areas of ocean will reach such temperatures. This will cause more frequent and more intense storms all over the world. Already, the worldwide increase in natural disasters is causing extraordinary losses for property insurers. Annual insured losses have risen dramatically – from about US$1.8 billion a year in the 1980s to over US$10 billion a year in the 1990s. S E C T I O N 1 • RISING SEA LEVELS The UN International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of the glaciers could cause average sea levels to rise by 6cm a decade. Increased flooding will displace millions, alter coastlines, contaminate freshwater supplies, and destroy agricultural land. Islands, lowlands and coastlines are particularly at risk from devastating flood and storm damage.
UNIT 1: WHERE DO WE STAND? THE STATE OF THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT 009 Natural disasters, 1993-97 numbers of disasters 160 120 80 40 Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Southeast Asia East Asia South America North America Rest of Europe Central America European Union Oceania Caribbean North Africa Central Asia West Asia Natural disasters occur everywhere but tropical regions are particularly vulnerable 0 Note: not all regions correspond to GEO-2000 regions Source: CRED 1999/Published in Global Environment Outlook 2000, UNEP S E C T I O N 1 Why Should the Tourism Industry be Concerned about Climate Change? Total and per capita energy consumption, 1995 energy consumption per capita (Gj) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 60.97 344.90 12.15 8.51 World Africa Asia and the Pacific energy consumption per capita (Gj) total energy consumption (Pj) 28.56 92,41 131.89 114.14 41.76 19.85 Latin America Europe and and the Central Asia Caribbean North America total energy consumption (Pj) West Asia Source: compiled by UNEP GRID Geneva from UNSTAT 1997/Published in Global Environment Outlook 2000, UNEP 342.91 101.68 99.89 8.31 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 In 1995, the high-income countries, home to 20 per cent of the world’s population, accounted for about 60 per cent of world commercial energy use
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PARTING THOUGHTS 211 “Expand your
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RESOURCES 213 The following is a li
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217 Introduction of Environment Imp
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Our natural ecologies today are in
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