Report - Agence canadienne d'évaluation environnementale

Project energy context
Moreover, the proponent conducted an analysis aimed at evaluating the project’s
net GHG emissions for Quebec, Canada, and North America. This analysis is
based on projections, qualified as conservative, drawn from the market study
conducted by the Energy and Environmental Analysis Group concerning natural
gas demand growth levels on the North American scale, and for Ontario and
Quebec. The calculations also take into account a possible drop in price of the
order of $0.46/million BTU (in 2004 Canadian dollars) in Quebec and eastern Ontario
predicted by the market study, and the stabilizing effect on supply that the project
could entail if built. The analysis also assumes an 80-percent conversion rate from
fuel oil to natural gas, a rate which the study considers realistic, According to the
proponent’s analysis the price advantage and stabilization of supply the project entails
would favour such a conversion.
According to these results, the project would have the net effect of increasing GHG to
the order of 125,000 t of CO2 eq. per year for Quebec, reducing emissions by about
100,000 t per year for Ontario, reducing emissions by 317,000 t per year for Canada,
and reducing emissions by 1,860,000 t per year for Canada and the United States.
These results suggest that the overall result of the project for combined emissions in
Canada and the United States would be a major drop in emissions by nearly 1.9 Mt of
carbon dioxide equivalent. This would stem from the fact that the project would result
in increased gas exports from WCSB (of the order of 189 pet joules a year), and the
likelihood that additional natural gas available would replace more polluting fuels with
higher carbon content . According to the proponent, this likelihood is recognized in a
forecast scenario considered to be representative by the Canadian government
(DA86.3.4).
Whatever the estimated reduction level, the proponent believes that his project would
have the effect of contributing to the reduction of North American GHG emissions
compared to what they would be without the project or another equivalent LNG project.
♦ Finding — The Panel notes that the project would result in a net increase in
Quebec’s carbon gas emissions of the order of 125,000 t of carbon dioxide
equivalent per year. This increase would correspond to 0.16 percent of the 2003
emissions balance.
The Project’s contribution put in question
During the hearing, several participants called into question the project analyses as
regards its contribution to GHG emissions in Quebec and cast doubts on the
proponent’s conclusions in that regard. Some reject project legitimacy as its
82 Rabaska Project – Implementation of an LNG Terminal and Related Infrastructure