Report - Agence canadienne d'évaluation environnementale

Project energy context
Moreover, according to the IEA 1 , OECD member countries have only 10 percent of
confirmed natural gas reserves whereas more than 50 percent of these reserves are
shared by only three countries: Russia (30%), Iran (15%) and Qatar (9%). The IEA
estimates that import needs for OECD member countries will go from 274 Gm 3 on an
annual basis in 2000 to 1,091 Gm 3 (or more than 40 percent of their consumption) in
2030. It should also be noted that confirmed and exploitable natural gas reserves on
the world scale correspond to predicted production duration of 70 years based on
current production levels (DQ35.1, p. 2).
Development of the international LNG trade
There are now 52 active LNG terminals in the world. Mokhatab et al. 2 estimate that
significant world LNG demand growth will be maintained, increasing from the
predicted 312 Gm 3 for 2008 to 764 Gm 3 on the 2030 horizon. The IEA in turn believes
that it is the market with the highest growth rate among all energy sectors in the world.
Based on these projections, the market would double in volume between 2005 and
2010, thus representing almost 40 percent of total natural gas supply growth in five
years 3 . According to the EIA LNG export volume was less than 113 Gm 3 in 1997 and
that world liquefaction capacity is supposed to have reached 266 Gm 3 in 2007 4 .
In addition, other observers have underscored the fact that North America has to
compete with Europe and Asia for LNG supplies in market conditions in which global
demand is clearly on the rise. Thus, Jensen 5 recalls that the regional LNG delivery
commitment balance broke down as follows en 2005: 25 percent for Europe,
38 percent for Japan, and 14 percent for the United States, which only left 23 percent
of world LNG supply for LNG spot destinations without long-term contractual
commitments.
Jensen also notes that the United States, and by extension North America, are at a
competitive disadvantage with respect to Europe and Asia considering transportation
distances and costs.
1. International Energy Agency, International Energy Agency Security of Gas Supply in Open Markets. LNG and
Power at a Turning Point, OECD, Paris, 2004, 497 pages.
2. S. Mokhatab, Economides and D. Wood, Natural gas and LNG trade – A global perspective New dynamics within
the gas industry, hydrocarbon processing, July 2006.
3. International Energy Agency, Natural Gas Market-Executive Summary Review 2006, 5 p., [On-line: www.iea.org/
textbase/npsum/nat_gas.pdf].
4. [On-line (16 March 2007): www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysispaper/global/overview.html].
5. J. T. Jensen, LNG – The Challenge of Including an Internationally traded Commodity in a North American Natural
Gas Forecast, presentation at the 2006 IEA conference Energy Outlook and Modelling, Washington D.C.,
27 March 2006, 38 p.
70 Rabaska Project – Implementation of an LNG Terminal and Related Infrastructure