Report - Agence canadienne d'évaluation environnementale

Project energy context
almost half the natural gas in the WCSB has been already extracted. The NEB does
not foresee the natural gas from northern regions reaching the market before the end
of the decade, and no additional supply is foreseen from Canada’s east coast offshore
deposits before 2010. Thus, according to the Board, “Overall, it will be difficult to
increase indigenous natural gas production 1 ”.
The NEB also foresees considerable difficulties regarding the stability of supply and
the price of natural gas. It also predicts strong competition among consumers as the
gap between supply and demand grows. These circumstances could result in major
impacts and constraints experienced by large natural gas-consuming industries
located the farthest from supply sources.
The NEB estimates that uncertainty and risk remain in regard to the development of
new natural gas sources and the time to develop them. For the NEB, LNG will have to
contribute significantly to reducing the gaps foreseen between supply and demand of
natural gas in Canada and in the overall North American market.
The increase of LNG imports would provide enough time to discover and develop new
resources or to build new LNG terminals in the United States and Canada. Thus, until
the new sources of natural gas are accessible on the market, the possibilities of
increasing supply will mainly come from LNG imports.
The NEB foresees no increase in Canadian natural gas exports to the United States
and estimates that Canadian natural gas production will peak at its current level by
2010 (between 452 and 480 Mm 3 /j) 2 . It is predicted that net natural gas exports from
Canada will reach the record level of 105 Gm 3 in 2010, and decline to the level of
73 Gm 3 on the 2025 horizon or before.
♦ Finding — The Panel notes the consensus to the effect that the natural gas
reserves, confirmed or currently being exploited, in the Western Canada
Sedimentary Basin are in decline and likely to be exhausted in nine or ten years.
The Panel also found that other Canadian reserves are not accessible to the
continental natural gas transport network and that their possible development could
take several years.
1. Ibid.
2. [On-line (8 May 2007): www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Canada/NaturalGas.html].
72 Rabaska Project – Implementation of an LNG Terminal and Related Infrastructure