PDF(2.7mb) - 國家政策研究基金會

128 Taiwan Development Perspectives 2009
The following table shows the results.
Total Eligible Valid Votes
Voters Yes No
Invalid
Votes
Total Votes
Voting
Rates
Approval
17,313,854 4,962,309 724,060 500,749 6,187,118 35.74% No
5. Analysis
Much less than half of the electorate showed up to
vote on any of the four referendums. The Kuomintang
has a larger power base than the Democratic Progressive
Party. On the other hand, voters also voted at their
own discretion. However, the following factors affected
the voting on the referendums.
a. Appeal to voters not to vote
Lien Chan, honorary Kuomintang chairman, appealed
to supporters to go to the polls to “pick up two
ballots and cast one for a candidate and the other for the
party but forget about the other two ballots.” In other
words, Lien asked supporters to elect a new Legislative
Yuan (the two ballots to elect regional lawmakers and
those at large) but told them not to vote on the two referendums,
one of them sponsored by the Kuomintang.
(Liberty Times/page A4, Jan. 1, 2008) Lien is the spiritual
leader of the Kuomintang. His appeal was heeded.
b. High threshold
Kuomintang supporters knew the best way to reject
the referendums is to refuse to vote so that the turnout
would be lower than a simple majority. So they
stayed away. Supporters of the Democratic Progressive
Party also knew it full well. As a consequence, many of
them did not show up to vote on the referendums, convinced
that their attendance made little difference.
c. Unattractive agenda
Voters fully realized that, even if the referendums
were adopted, none of them would be put into effect.
They knew it did not matter whether they voted or did
not vote.
d. Marginal utility
Voters understood their marginal utility was diminishing.
III. Linkage of Referendums and Elections
in 2008
Referendums are held alongside major elections in
many countries. For example, 153 referendums were
held in 36 states in the United States when the presidential
election was held in 2008.
It is stipulated in Article 24 of the Referendum
Law that the Central Election Commission shall hold a
referendum within one to six months after its proposal
is approved and made public. The referendum may be
held alongside a national election.
However, President Chen Shui-bian called the two
“defensive” referendums in accordance with Article 17
of the Referendum Law alongside the presidential election
of 2004. He won, because of the large turnout following
the shooting incident on the eve of the election.
The Kuomintang was convinced that the election
cum referendums, along with the shooting incident, was
the cause of the loss of its presidential candidate Lien
Chan. John C. Kuan, the then vice chairman of the
Kuomintang, concluded after comparing the vote tabulations:
“The two defensive referendums were the key to
the presidential election (of 2004). In all counties and
cities, our party had lower voter support when more
voters voted on the referendums. For example, more
than 50 percent of voters – higher than the national average
of 45 percent – voted on the referendums in Yilan