PDF(2.7mb) - 國家政策研究基金會

240 Taiwan Development Perspectives 2009
40
Figure 3. The Effect of Energy Tax on the Energy Demand by sector in 2018
Coal
Nature Gas
Oil
Electricity
30
20
10
Unite:%
0
-10
-20
Agriculture
Mining
Coal, Oil and Gas Extraction
-30
Quarring
Manufacturing
Food and Beverage
Tobacco
Textiles
Clothes and Wearing Apparel
Leather and Leather Products
Lumber and Wood
Furniture and Fixtures
Paper and Printing
Chemical and Plastic
Rubber Products
Petroleum and Coal Products
Non-Metallic Mineral
Basic Metal
Metal Products
Machinery and Equipment
Elect. Mach. and Electronics
Transport Equipment
Miscellaneous
Water. Elect. and Gas
Electricity Supply
Construction
Transportation and Communication
Services
Total Sectorial Rate of Change
-40
-50
Sectors
Output Prices
Output Growth
Imposing an energy tax will of course have the
greatest impact on the prices within the four energy
sectors (see Table 2). The water, electricity and gas and
transportation sectors will have the highest price increases
among the seven one-digit sectors. Among
manufacturing industries, basic metal and paper and
printing sectors will suffer the greatest impact in terms
of price increases. For the economy as a whole, the
producer price index will increase by 1.185 by 2018.
(See Table 2 and Figure 4).
The four energy sectors will also suffer the great
decline in output growth when the energy tax is imposed.
This is due to the “substitution effect” and “income
effect” both in terms of the final demand and the
producer’s sector. The basic metal and non-metallic
mineral sectors are the most affected parts of the manufacturing
sector. The transportation and manufacturing
sectors will exhibit the greatest decrease in output
growth among the seven one-digit sectors. For the
economy as a whole, GDP will decline by 1.12 percent
if energy tax is imposed. (See Table 2 and Figure 5).