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A Synthesis of Energy Tax, Carbon Tax and Emission Trading in Taiwan 237
Base Case Projection
To assess the effect of an energy tax, we must first
determine the future path of the Taiwan economy in the
absence of the energy tax. We call such a scenario a
base case. The base case projection is conducted by
means of the following steps:
(1) We insert the values of the capital services price
(
PK
), the wage (
PL
) and the price of imported intermediate
inputs (
P m
) projected by the DGBAS
macroeconomic model into the producer’s model.
In this way, we obtain the prices and factor cost
shares for 29 sectors over 1999-2020.
(2) By employing the 1996 input-output table, we then
convert the 29 sectoral output prices into the prices
of five consumer goods during 1999-2020. By inserting
the prices of five consumer goods together
with the private consumption as projected by the
macroeconomic model into the consumer’s model,
we obtain the shares of five consumer goods in total
private consumption.
(3) The demand for types of energy by the sector – if oil
is taken as an example – is derived by multiplying
the oil coefficient (O/Q) by the total output (Q) for
each sector. The oil coefficient (O/Q) can be calculated
by means of the following equation:
O
Q
P E P O P
S S
P E⋅
O⋅
= ⋅ ⋅ = E⋅ O⋅ (6)
PQ ⋅ PE⋅
E PO
PO
where S E : Energy share of total cost,
S O
: Oil share of energy cost,
P : Output price,
P O
: Price of oil products,
and S E
, S O
, P, and P O
are endogenously determined
The projected growth rate of sectoral output during
1999-2020 is derived by: (i) the GDP growth rate
obtained from the macroeconomic model, (ii) the industrial
structure projection provided by this study, and
(iii) the use of the sectoral value-added shares in total
output which are endogenously determined from this
model’s simulation.
(4) The demand for energy in the household sector
( E H
) is derived by
PC
EH
= S
E
⋅
(7)
P
E
Here,
SE
,
PE
and PC denote, respectively,
the energy expenditure share of private consumption,
the energy price and private consumption.
Both
SE
and
PE
are determined endogenously
from the consumer’s model, while
PC
(private
consumption) comes from the projection of the
DGBAS macroeconomic model.
(5) The demand for the various types of energy are then
converted into CO 2 emissions by employing the
conversion factor projected by the MARKAL engineering
model, such as: coal (3.53 tons
CO 2 /KLOE) 8 , oil products (2.89 tons CO 2 /KLOE),
and natural gas (2.09 tons CO 2 /KLOE). This completes
the whole process of baseline projection.
Simulation Involving Energy Taxes
(6) Next, we evaluate the impact of an energy tax. We
convert the prices of different energy types endogenous
as well as exogenous. The prices of energy
are modified by incorporating energy tax
schedules into the producer’s model and consumer’s
model to calculate their corresponding output prices,
cost shares, demand for types of energy and CO 2
emissions by sectors, as well as the consumption
in the model. 8 KLOE stands for kiloliter oil equivalent.