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An Analysis of 2008 Legislative and Presidential Elections in Taiwan 29
IV. Timing of Legislative and Presidential
Elections
Timing of legislative and presidential elections
may also affect the outcome of government system( 陳
宏 銘 、 蔡 榮 祥 ,2008:122; 沈 有 忠 ,2005:41). After
the constitutional amendment in 2005, the president and
the legislators have a four-year term. Legislative elections
precede the presidential election by two to three
months, unless the Legislative Yuan is dissolved in advance.
This institutional design makes the results of
legislative elections influence the following presidential
race.
Generally, voters follow the same pattern in legislative
and presidential elections. If they support party A
in parliamentary elections held in advance, they are
likely to vote for the party A presidential candidate to
secure a majority government. Many studies show that
if a presidential election and legislative elections are
held at the same time or the former only slightly later
than the latter, the possibility is high that the party
whose presidential candidate wins will also control the
legislature.( 林 佳 龍 ,2000:196; 陳 宏 銘 、 蔡 榮 祥 ,
2008:120; 沈 有 忠 ,2005:51-52; 林 繼 文 ,2006:
9). A three-month time lag may produce a coattail
effect or result in a “honeymoon election.” ( 林 繼 文 ,
2006:242-261). Shugart and Carey distinguish the
“honeymoon election” (parliamentary elections held
within one year after the presidential inauguration) and
“counter-honeymoon election” (parliamentary elections
held within one year before the presidential inauguration).
The single constituency system benefits large
parties regardless of whether the presidential election is
held with or without legislative elections. It reduces
the number of effective parties as well(Shugart and
Carey, 1992;Shugart, 1995: 327-343;Lijphart, 1994:
144-146)
“Voting stable” means voters support candidates
from the same party in two consecutive elections and
“voting changeable” means voters support candidates
from different parties in two consecutive elections( 黃
紀 、 王 鼎 銘 、 郭 銘 峰 ,2005:859). To hold legislative
elections before a presidential election within three
months ensures a “voting stable.” The DPP lost the
presidential election due to the “voting stable,” because
it was held only 70 days after the legislative elections.
American experiences tell us a “honeymoon” lasts more
than 70 days. So the coattail effect triumphs over the
pendulum effect〈 楊 泰 順 , 聯 合 報 ,2008/1/13,A18〉.
The results of the legislative and presidential elections
of 2008 confirmed the theories advanced in the
aforesaid studies. The party that won the legislative
elections went on to win the presidential race. The
pendulum effect or a “golden cross” the DPP had expected
did not occur. The KMT had 58 percent of voter
support rate against the 42 percent of the DPP in the
legislative and presidential elections( 聯 合 報 社 論 ,
2008 年 3 月 23 日 ). Although the change in the term of
lawmakers and the halving of the seats were just part of
parliamentary reform, the timing of the legislative and
presidential elections may perpetuate a majority government.(
周 育 仁 ,2006a:116).
Frank Hsieh admitted in the run-up to the presidential
election he could not appoint a DPP premier, if
he won. By the admission he accepted the high probability
that the outcome of the legislative elections
would directly impact the presidential election. Once a
party lost legislative elections, it was likely to lose the
following presidential race as well. In other words, the
likelihood of a majority government to emerge is much
higher than a minority one in Taiwan under the new
parliamentary system.
V. Conclusion
The legislative and presidential elections of 2008
marked a milestone in Taiwan’s constitutional development.
Taiwan passed Huntington’s “two-turnover
test” for democratic consolidation. On the other hand,
the time for a minority government is over. The brief
time lag between legislative and presidential elections
helps form a majority government, while the single
constituency system of election made the KMT garner
more parliamentary seats than the votes it collected