PDF(2.7mb) - 國家政策研究基金會
PDF(2.7mb) - 國家政策研究基金會
PDF(2.7mb) - 國家政策研究基金會
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Stabilizing the Triangle: A Personal View from Taipei 165<br />
First, cabinet-level U.S. officials from economic<br />
and technical agencies were authorized to travel to<br />
Taiwan when appropriate.<br />
Second, the Trade and Investment Framework<br />
Agreement-TIFA-talks and the Sub-cabinet Level Economic<br />
Dialogue-SLED-were set up to promote bilateral<br />
economic relations.<br />
Third, the U.S. would support Taiwan’s participation<br />
in international organizations that do not require<br />
statehood for membership.<br />
In conclusion, Mr. Roth stressed that the U.S.<br />
firmly believes that the future of cross-Strait relations is<br />
a matter for Beijing and Taipei to resolve and the U.S.<br />
has an abiding interest that any resolution be peaceful.<br />
In view of Mr. Roth’s testimony on TRA then, we<br />
may find that the law and its effectiveness remain unchanged<br />
today. When the law and the pertinent policies<br />
of the three sides are put into the context, we will find<br />
the clues and nuances the evolution of the changing<br />
times may have brought about.<br />
The Eight-Year Turmoil<br />
After eight years of the roller-coasting of the<br />
cross-strait relations, especially the later half of it, Chen<br />
Shui-bian’s brinkmanship of a “non-policy” conduct of<br />
erratic international and domestic behavior brought the<br />
triangular relationships to a new low and even to a possible<br />
catastrophe on a motive yet to be uncovered .<br />
Thanks to the wisdom of the people on Taiwan, Mr.<br />
Chen Shui-bian’s initiatives on two unthinkable referenda<br />
tied to two presidential elections on the totally<br />
irrelevant and risky subjects within a span of four years<br />
were soundly rejected by the majority of the voters. His<br />
long-awaited departure from the office eventually offered<br />
an opportunity for a sigh of relief to all those<br />
concerned about the peace and security in the Taiwan<br />
Strait and the future of the triangular relationships.<br />
Across the Taiwan Strait, perhaps puzzled by<br />
Chen’s incomprehensible behavior, the Beijing leadership<br />
was sitting tight and in a far more skillful and sophisticated<br />
fashion playing the chess game via Washington<br />
than what their predecessors did during the past<br />
politically sensitive times. Beijing’s adoption of the<br />
Anti-secession Law, though unnecessary in Taiwan’s<br />
view, seemed to have served their purpose at the time to<br />
keep Chen Shui-bian at bay and sent a clear signal to<br />
the U.S. that the bottom-line is not to be ignored.<br />
President George W. Bush apparently was annoyed<br />
by Chen’s persistent provocative behavior which served<br />
no one’s interest and was harmful to all, sternly warned<br />
Mr. Chen once even through TV program with Premier<br />
Wen Jiabao on his side. During Chen’s second term, his<br />
Administration played a meaningless role of a trouble-maker<br />
in the triangular relations and a laughing<br />
stock internationally.<br />
The Dawn of Peace<br />
In the spring of 2005, Dr. Lien Chan, the former<br />
vice president and chairman of the Kuomintang, made a<br />
historic visit to Beijing . His Journey of peace, which<br />
was viewed as highly successful and “ice-melting”,<br />
made a significant first step for confidence-building<br />
between the two parties, thus cancelling considerably<br />
the destabilizing effect Chen Shui-bian’s words and<br />
deeds had produced and reduced greatly the possibilities<br />
of armed conflicts in the Strait due to miscalculation.<br />
When Mr. Ma Ying-jeou became the presidential<br />
candidate of the Kuomintang in 2007, his campaign<br />
platform to pursue a policy of “no unification, no independence,<br />
and no use of force” in order to maintain the<br />
status quo in the Taiwan Strait was not only a right answer<br />
to the wishes of the majority of voters on the island,<br />
but in the common interest of all parties in the<br />
triangular relationships. Mr. Ma won the election by a<br />
historic landslide with more than 58 per cent of the<br />
votes. When he took office in May 2008, his inaugural<br />
speech again reaffirmed his policy toward the mainland.