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PDF(2.7mb) - 國家政策研究基金會

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Stabilizing the Triangle: A Personal View from Taipei 165<br />

First, cabinet-level U.S. officials from economic<br />

and technical agencies were authorized to travel to<br />

Taiwan when appropriate.<br />

Second, the Trade and Investment Framework<br />

Agreement-TIFA-talks and the Sub-cabinet Level Economic<br />

Dialogue-SLED-were set up to promote bilateral<br />

economic relations.<br />

Third, the U.S. would support Taiwan’s participation<br />

in international organizations that do not require<br />

statehood for membership.<br />

In conclusion, Mr. Roth stressed that the U.S.<br />

firmly believes that the future of cross-Strait relations is<br />

a matter for Beijing and Taipei to resolve and the U.S.<br />

has an abiding interest that any resolution be peaceful.<br />

In view of Mr. Roth’s testimony on TRA then, we<br />

may find that the law and its effectiveness remain unchanged<br />

today. When the law and the pertinent policies<br />

of the three sides are put into the context, we will find<br />

the clues and nuances the evolution of the changing<br />

times may have brought about.<br />

The Eight-Year Turmoil<br />

After eight years of the roller-coasting of the<br />

cross-strait relations, especially the later half of it, Chen<br />

Shui-bian’s brinkmanship of a “non-policy” conduct of<br />

erratic international and domestic behavior brought the<br />

triangular relationships to a new low and even to a possible<br />

catastrophe on a motive yet to be uncovered .<br />

Thanks to the wisdom of the people on Taiwan, Mr.<br />

Chen Shui-bian’s initiatives on two unthinkable referenda<br />

tied to two presidential elections on the totally<br />

irrelevant and risky subjects within a span of four years<br />

were soundly rejected by the majority of the voters. His<br />

long-awaited departure from the office eventually offered<br />

an opportunity for a sigh of relief to all those<br />

concerned about the peace and security in the Taiwan<br />

Strait and the future of the triangular relationships.<br />

Across the Taiwan Strait, perhaps puzzled by<br />

Chen’s incomprehensible behavior, the Beijing leadership<br />

was sitting tight and in a far more skillful and sophisticated<br />

fashion playing the chess game via Washington<br />

than what their predecessors did during the past<br />

politically sensitive times. Beijing’s adoption of the<br />

Anti-secession Law, though unnecessary in Taiwan’s<br />

view, seemed to have served their purpose at the time to<br />

keep Chen Shui-bian at bay and sent a clear signal to<br />

the U.S. that the bottom-line is not to be ignored.<br />

President George W. Bush apparently was annoyed<br />

by Chen’s persistent provocative behavior which served<br />

no one’s interest and was harmful to all, sternly warned<br />

Mr. Chen once even through TV program with Premier<br />

Wen Jiabao on his side. During Chen’s second term, his<br />

Administration played a meaningless role of a trouble-maker<br />

in the triangular relations and a laughing<br />

stock internationally.<br />

The Dawn of Peace<br />

In the spring of 2005, Dr. Lien Chan, the former<br />

vice president and chairman of the Kuomintang, made a<br />

historic visit to Beijing . His Journey of peace, which<br />

was viewed as highly successful and “ice-melting”,<br />

made a significant first step for confidence-building<br />

between the two parties, thus cancelling considerably<br />

the destabilizing effect Chen Shui-bian’s words and<br />

deeds had produced and reduced greatly the possibilities<br />

of armed conflicts in the Strait due to miscalculation.<br />

When Mr. Ma Ying-jeou became the presidential<br />

candidate of the Kuomintang in 2007, his campaign<br />

platform to pursue a policy of “no unification, no independence,<br />

and no use of force” in order to maintain the<br />

status quo in the Taiwan Strait was not only a right answer<br />

to the wishes of the majority of voters on the island,<br />

but in the common interest of all parties in the<br />

triangular relationships. Mr. Ma won the election by a<br />

historic landslide with more than 58 per cent of the<br />

votes. When he took office in May 2008, his inaugural<br />

speech again reaffirmed his policy toward the mainland.

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