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26 Taiwan Development Perspectives 2009
Kinmen and Lienchiang – have a population of less
than 310,000 each, so each city and county is entitled to
one legislator only. For the other four – the counties
of Yilan and Hsinchu and the cities of Hsinchu and
Keelung – although each has more than 310,000 voters,
only one lawmaker can be elected from each city or
county. Unfortunately it will be very hard for the DPP
to win in these ten cities and counties which, most of
them, traditionally were dominated by the KMT. Furthermore,
the KMT also has an advantageous position
in the six seats reserved for indigenous peoples.
However, the total voter population of the indigenous
groups and the two counties on the offshore islands-
Kinmen and Lienchiang - is equal to that of the one
single county of Yilan, where only one legislator could
be elected. In other words, the KMT might win as many
as eight seats to represent the same voter population as
the one-lawmaker county of Yilan. The new election
system heavily favored the KMT in these areas.
In addition, the KMT enjoyed dominance in almost
42 of the remaining 63 single constituencies,
against only 21 by the DPP. According to Lin Tsuo-shui,
a former DPP legislator, the KMT controlled more than
70 percent of the townships and villages, where it was
favored to win. His estimate was about the same as
Professor Hu Fu. 2 Legislative elections based on the
single constituency system in Japan and the United
Kingdom proved that the largest party won more seats
than the votes it won. In 1996, for instance, the Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) won only 38.6 percent of the
votes but 56.3 percent of the seats in the Diet. The Labor
Party won 43.2 percent of the votes but 63 percent
of seats in the Lower House of the United Kingdom in
1997. Candidates of smaller parties had almost no
chance to win under the single constituency system. As
for the party proportional representation, there are 34
seats, and only those parties that collect more than five
percent of the total votes cast are entitled to seat. Under
the strict confrontation between pan-blue and pan-green,
it will be very hard for the small party to win in this
proportional representation.
As a result, the Kuomintang won 57 single constituencies
for a total of 81 seats, including four reserved
for indigenous peoples, or 53.478 percent of the
votes for 78.08 percent of the seats for regional legislators.
The DPP won only 13 single constituencies for a
total of 27 seats. Although it won 38.654 percent of the
votes, it won only 16.44 percent of the seats. The
Non-Partisan Solidarity Alliance (NPSA) won two seats.
An independent won in one single constituency, while
the NPSA and the PFP each won a seat reserved for
indigenous peoples. As a matter of fact, they won because
the KMT did not field candidates (For the results
of the elections see Table 1.).
The two major parties did well in the election of
lawmakers at large. The proportional representation
system did not favor small parties. In Japan, small parties
did not get any return for the wasted votes they
collected in single constituencies( 王 業 立 :2002).
Furthermore, the constitutional amendment of 2005
mandates no seats according to proportional representation
for a party that fails to collect at least five percent
of the votes cast in legislative elections. None of the
small parties crossed that threshold to send a lawmaker
at large to the legislature.
According to other countries’ experiences, the incumbents
were favored to win in single constituencies.
It is not easy for a challenger to replace the incumbent.
As a result, there would be few new faces in the Legislative
Yuan in the future. It is believed that the party
that won the 2008 legislative elections will have better
chance to win in 2012 election. Moreover, the result of
the legislator election will further affect the following
presidential election which will be held two months
latter.
2
請 參 閱 鄭 孝 莉 ,「 修 憲 過 關 , 小 黨 恐 得 關 門 」,
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