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PDF(2.7mb) - 國家政策研究基金會

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PLAN Looks beyond Taiwan 181<br />

China follows Zheng He much more than Mahan.<br />

China's naval strategy has been considered similar<br />

to those of big powers for a long time. The PLAN’s<br />

strength and development were over-exaggerated. Actually<br />

the PLAN’s ability to project and sustain power<br />

far overseas remains limited. Currently, the PLAN is<br />

unable to resort to force to make China’s foreign energy<br />

investments secure or to effectively defend the vital sea<br />

lanes against disruption. The PLAN is facing an ambition-capability<br />

gap, while it only has local sea denial<br />

capabilities: mines, submarines, maritime strike aircraft,<br />

and modern surface combatants equipped with advanced<br />

ASCMs provide a supporting layer of defense<br />

for its long-range anti-access systems. Cortez A. Cooper<br />

III sums up the PLAN sea denial capabilities well:<br />

By 2008, China is capable of short-term sea denial operations<br />

up 400 nautical miles from coast; by 2010, it<br />

may be able to sustain such operations for a few weeks;<br />

and after 2015, the PLAN can show the flag in the<br />

Straits of Malacca and the Indian Ocean. 41<br />

The PLAN will try to develop conservatively thereafter.<br />

It will not seek hegemony over the oceans. It<br />

will plan its own development carefully.<br />

125–141.<br />

41 Statement of Cortez A. Cooper III for a March 16,<br />

2006, hearing before the U.S.-China Economic and<br />

Security Review Commission.

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