PDF(2.7mb) - 國家政策研究基金會

220 Taiwan Development Perspectives 2009
I. Preface
Taiwan is neither large in size nor rich in natural
resources. It has an area of 36,000 square kilometers. At
present, only about 825,947 hectares or 22.94 percent
of the area are used for agricultural production, though
it has to support 22.8 million people. Almost all farms
in Taiwan are small, the average landholding per family
being one hectare. It is extremely difficult for small
farms to reduce their cost of production.
Taiwan was admitted to the World Trade Organization
in 2002. It has to open up the domestic market to
farm and livestock products from abroad. Farmers are
facing an increasingly unrestricted international competition.
The skyrocketing world oil prices in early 2008
seriously hurt Taiwan’s agriculture, livestock industry
and fisheries.
The oil prices topped US$147 a barrel in July and
then began to fall. By November the prices went down
to US$60 a barrel, remaining prohibitively higher than
Taiwan could afford. This paper analyzes the impact of
high oil prices on Taiwan’s agriculture, livestock industry
and fisheries.
II. Rising Oil Prices
Taiwan depends on oil imports. After the first international
energy crisis in the 1970s, the government
adopted a policy of energy diversification in order to
reduce dependence on foreign oil. Following the second
oil crisis, the government has actively promoted the
substitution of coal and nuclear energy for oil. As a
result, oil’s relative share of Taiwan’s energy supply
went down to 57 percent in 1989. Such efforts contributed
to stable energy supply and minimized the dependence
on oil imports. Farmers need fossil fuel and
fertilizers in production. Fishermen need fossil fuel,
while livestock farmers have to import grain as feeds.
They all suffer when crude oil prices go up.
Crude oil prices were US$20 to US$30 a barrel
before 2002. The prices started to rise in 2003 and surpassed
US$40 a barrel in June 2004. Ten months later,
the prices soared above US$50 a barrel and then topped
US$60 a barrel in January 2006. They went up from
US$70 a barrel in August to US$80 in December 2007.
By February crude oil was traded at US$100 a barrel.
The prices peaked at US$147.27 on July 11, 2008. A
global recession began in the months that followed,
forcing down the crude oil prices to US$60 a barrel by
November. (See Table 1 for the rise and fall of prices.)
Table 1
Rise and Fall of Oil Prices
Origin\Date 2001.2.1 2002.4.1 2003.2.3 2004.2.2 2005.2.1 2006.2.1
WTI 29.83 26.88 32.45 34.28 46.68 66.72
Dubai 24.94 23.84 29.41 27.06 39.21 61.17
Brent 28.87 25.60 31.10 30.43 45.08 66.18
Origin\Date 2007.12.3 2008.3.3 2008.5.6 2008.6.6 2008.7.4 2008.11.6
WTI 88.73 102.46 121.87 137.54 145.31 60.770
Dubai 82.95 94.87 113.25 122.76 140.7 56.210
Brent 88.16 102.69 114.94 133.62 143.54 56.180
Source: Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs, R.O.C.