studies

HEPATOLOGY, VOLUME 62, NUMBER 1 (SUPPL) AASLD ABSTRACTS 1097A
1821
Mathematical model for early detection of hepatocellular
carcinoma on top of HCV infection
Abdelrahman Zekri, Amira S. Youssef, Yasser M. Bakr, Reham
Mohamed Gabr, Ola Ahmed, Mohamed Abouelhoda; Virology
and immunology Unit, Cancer Biology, National Cancer Institute,
Cairo, Egypt
Background: We investigated whether combinations of serum
Intercellular Adhesion Molecules (sICAM-1), Beta catenin
(β-catenin), Interleukin 8 (IL-8), Proteasome and soluble Tumor
Necrosis Factor Receptor II (sTNF-RII) or subsets of them with
AFP, used with logistic disease predictor models, could facilitate
the early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).
Methods: Serum levels of IL-8, sICAM-1, sTNF-RII, Proteasome
and β-catenin were measured in 479 subjects (192
HCC associated with HCV infection; 96 HCV related liver
cirrhosis (LC); 96 chronic hepatitis C (CHC) and 95 healthy
controls). The R package and different modules for binary
and multi-class classifiers based on generalized linear models
were used to model the data. ROC curve analysis was
used to find the best cutoffs differentiating among different
groups. Results: We revealed mathematical models, based on
binary classifier, made up of unique panel of biomarkers that
improved the individual performance of AFP for the discrimination
of HCC from benign liver disease. For the discrimination
of HCC group from LC group, using a mathematical model
[-1.133(E+01) +7.380* Proteasome + (1.081E-03)*sICAM-1+
(2.574E-01)*β-catenin + (1.597E-02)*AFP] with cutoff 0.6552
has achieved 98.8% specificity and 89.1% sensitivity. For the
discrimination of HCC group from CHC group, a mathematical
model [-1.040*(e+01) + (1.416e+00)*Proteasome +
(2.024e-03)*IL-8+ (4.096e-03)*sICAM-1+ (4.251e-04)*sT-
NF-RII+ (2.567e-01)*β-catenin + (2.442e-02)*AFP] with cutoff
0.744 has achieved 96.8% specificity and 89.7% sensitivity.
Also, we have derived an algorithm for resolving the multi-class
classification problem by using three successive mathematical
models. First, use the mathematical model [-1.10E+01+6.83*
Proteasome + (1.29E-03)*sTNF—RII + (2.83E-01)*AFP]
with cutoff 0.764 to discriminate healthy controls from disease
cases. For disease cases, discriminate HCC cases from
HCV cases (cases with LC and CHC) using the mathematical
model [-1.191(E+01) + (3.222E+00)* Proteasome +
(3.813E-04)*IL-8 + (1.518E-03)*sICAM-1 + (6.481E-04)*sT-
NF-RII + (2.906E-01)* β-Catenin + (1.931e-02)*AFP] with
cutoff 0.712. If the cases were HCV, proceed to discriminate
LC cases from CHC cases using the mathematical model
[-1.016e+01 + (-4.487e+00)*Proteasome + (2.086e-03)*sI-
CAM-1 + (1.858e-03)*sTNF-RII+ (-2.984e-01)* β-Catenin +
(2.169e-02)*AFP] with cutoff 0.582. Conclusion: Our proposed
mathematical models can differentiate not only between
HCC and other studied groups but also between all studied
groups in non-invasive, inexpensive and rapid manner. Key
words: Hepatocellular carcinoma, AFP, sICAM-1, β-catenin,
IL-8, sTNF-RII, Proteasome.
Disclosures:
The following authors have nothing to disclose: Abdelrahman Zekri, Amira
S. Youssef, Yasser M. Bakr, Reham Mohamed Gabr, Ola Ahmed, Mohamed
Abouelhoda
1822
Hepatitis C Seropositivity is not as high as Western
Countries in the Population Born Between 1945-1965
According to Turkey Nationwide Hepatitis Prevalence
Study (TURKHEP 2010)
Osman C. Ozdogan 1 , Nurdan Tozun 2 , Sabahattin Kaymakoglu 3 ,
Ramazan Idilman 4 , Zeki Karasu 5 , Ulus S. Akarca 5 ; 1 Gastroenterology,
Marmara University Medical School, Istanbul, Turkey;
2 Gastroenterology, Acibadem University Medical School, Istanbul,
Turkey; 3 Gastroenterology, Istanbul University Medical Faculty,
Istanbul, Turkey; 4 Gastroenterology, Ankara Universit Faculty of
Medicine, Istanbul, Turkey; 5 Gastroenterology, Ege University
Medical Faculty, Istanbul, Turkey
Aim&Methods: Hepatitis C infection is more prevalent in the
“Baby Boomer Population” those born between 1945 and
1965 in USA and Western Countries. Although Turkey was
not involved in World War II, birth rates were increased after
1945 in Turkey. However, this population can not be defined
as “Baby Boomers” since they have different properties. We
aimed to determine the anti-HCV seropositivity in the population
born between the years of 1945-1965 from the data
of Turkey Nationwide Hepatitis Prevalence Study (TURKHEP)
which was presented in AASLD in 2010 by Turkish Association
for the Study of Liver Disease (TASL). A total of 5533 volunteers
were screened in TURHEP Study, performed via home
visits in 2009-2010 with volunteers living in urban and rural
areas of 23 cities located in EUROSTAT NUTS 2 regions of
Turkey which were determined based on two stage stratified
sampling method. The participants were selected according
to randomized sampling method of Statistics Institute of Turkey
(TUIK). Participants’ socio-demographic features, anthropometrics,
medical history, concomitant medications and presence
of risk factors were recorded and blood samples were
collected for the analysis of serum HBV, HDV, HCV markers,
ALT and AST levels. Anti-HCV seropositivity and HCV RNA
status was recruited from the TURKHEP data and compared
with the population born after 1965. Results: TURKHEP data
analysis included 5460 participants with data available on
seroprevalence and risk factors for hepatitis C infection inwhich
1980 participants (1037 female/943 male) borned between
the years of 1945-1965 were recruited. Overall, 0.95% of the
subjects were reactive for anti-HCV antibodies in whole population
whereas Anti-HCV seropositive subjects were 28 out of
1980 subjects in the population born between 1945-1965 at
a rate of 1.4 % which is 1.5 times higher than the whole population.
Half of these subjects were HCV RNA positive by the
Real time PCR instrument, Rotor-Gene Q (QIAGEN, Germany).
However among the subjects borned after 1965, Anti-HCV
seropositive subjects were 23 out of 3460 subjects at a rate of
0.7%. Conclusion: Eventhough the HCV seropositivity rate was
higher than the whole Turkish population in Turkish population
born between the years of 1945-1965, this rate of increase did
not reach the higher rates of Western Baby Boomer Population
showing the different transmission routes of HCV infection in
Turkey.
Disclosures:
Ulus S. Akarca - Advisory Committees or Review Panels: GILEAD, BMS, MSD,
AbbVie
The following authors have nothing to disclose: Osman C. Ozdogan, Nurdan
Tozun, Sabahattin Kaymakoglu, Ramazan Idilman, Zeki Karasu