Report from the Sub-comittee on the environment and health

0-scenario: total phase-out
of pesticides
10 Model calculations of <strong>the</strong>
consequences of <strong>the</strong> environment
and health scenarios for phasing
out pesticides
10.1 Description of <strong>the</strong> scenarios
This chapter describes <strong>the</strong> consequences for <strong>the</strong> environment and health
of some of <strong>the</strong> scenarios that have been coordinated with <strong>the</strong> technical
sub-committees on "agriculture", "production, economy and
employment" and "legislation" (Main Committee <strong>Report</strong> 1999). The
scenarios are compared with present production in <strong>the</strong> agricultural sector.
The scenarios are as follows:
• Present production (1994)
• 0-scenario: total phase-out of pesticides
• 0+scenario: almost total phase-out of pesticides
• +scenario: limited use of pesticides
• ++scenario: reduced use of pesticides
It should be noted that <strong>the</strong>re are only sufficient data for real calculations
of <strong>the</strong> consequences of a total or partial phase-out of pesticides compared
with present production for <strong>the</strong> following impacts:
• Impacts on <strong>the</strong> population density of selected soil organisms
(springtails and earthworms in farmland)
• Impacts on <strong>the</strong> populations of 9 farmland bird species
• Impacts on <strong>the</strong> size of <strong>the</strong> seed pool in farmland
• Probability of impacts on algae and crustaceans in ponds
• The population’s intake of pesticides
In connection with <strong>the</strong> calculations, a number of qualitative assessments
have been carried out of <strong>the</strong> consequences of <strong>the</strong> various scenarios for
important environmental and health aspects in connection with a total or
partial phase-out of pesticides.
The analysis is based on <strong>the</strong> 12 types of farm set up in chapter 4 of <strong>the</strong>
Main Committee's report. For each of <strong>the</strong>se types of farm, proposals have
been made for adjustment of <strong>the</strong> crop rotations to accommodate a phaseout
of pesticides.
The basis for <strong>the</strong> proposed crop rotations in this scenario is as follows:
The farms' present production and structure are kept largely unchanged
with respect to livestock units and types of crop. The total livestock
production is maintained. In order to compensate for a reduction in
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