Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank

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Applied Materials Inc Technology Hardware Figure 19: Revenue by customer 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 Samsung TSMC Intel Others Source: Company data Figure 20: Revenue by region 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 U.S. Japan Europe Korea Asia Pacific Source: Company data Figure 21: Orders by region 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 U.S. Japan Europe Korea Asia Pacific Source: Company data Revenue – 2014 driven by logic/foundry In 2014, SSG revenue is expected to increase by 26%, having fallen by 10% in 2013 (see Figure 22 below). The increase is likely to be driven by foundry and logic 108
Applied Materials Inc Technology Hardware expanding 20nm output using DP, and by the expansion of HKMG process adoption. By late 2014/2015, the semiconductor equipment market will be driven by 3D NAND- and FinFET-related spending. Recent comments from management suggest that its expected memory order intake in H2 is likely to be less than 25% of total orders, which is less positive than KLA’s and LAM’s recent results and statements. KLA is expecting memory to account for 44% of the June quarter’s total order intake, up from 28% in the March quarter and 17% in the December quarter. LAM’s memory shipment increased from a low 20% of total shipments in December 2012 to 31% in the March quarter. We therefore believe that AMAT’s memory exposure is not as great as peers KLA’s and LAM’s, hence its revenues from the 3D NAND capex boost may be limited. We estimate a much smaller revenue growth rate (3%) in 2015 following a 26% increase in 2014, due to AMAT’s memory exposure is lower, and majority of the equipment required for 3D NAND capacity building would be shipping in 2014. We estimate that the AGS division’s revenue will decrease in 2013, due to the decreased order levels since H2 2012. Display revenue is expected to grow in 2014 driven by recent order increases, but we remain cautious about the sustainability of a high order level. We estimate EES activity to remain at a low level, and we do not expect a major improvement until the industrial oversupply issue has been resolved. Figure 22: Revenue model by segment 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E Revenues (Dollars in millions) SSG 5,414.0 5,536.0 4,945.3 6,186.7 6,359.5 AGS 2,413.0 2,285.0 2,037.0 2,115.0 2,237.3 Display 699.0 473.0 616.9 901.6 762.6 EES 1,991.0 425.0 184.3 234.4 267.0 Total 10,517.0 8,719.0 7,783.6 9,437.8 9,626.5 % of total SSG 51.5% 63.5% 63.5% 65.6% 66.1% AGS 22.9% 26.2% 26.2% 22.4% 23.2% Display 6.6% 5.4% 7.9% 9.6% 7.9% EES 18.9% 4.9% 2.4% 2.5% 2.8% YOY % change SSG 2.1% 2.3% -10.7% 25.1% 2.8% AGS 29.3% -5.3% -10.9% 3.8% 5.8% Display -22.2% -32.3% 30.4% 46.2% -15.4% EES 34.5% -78.7% -56.6% 27.2% 13.9% Total 10.1% -17.1% -10.7% 21.3% 2.0% Opm (Pro forma) SSG 32.8% 27.8% 25.0% 26.9% 28.0% AGS 21.3% 23.2% 22.2% 22.6% 23.7% Display 22.3% 6.8% 20.3% 23.8% 18.0% EES 22.4% -43.3% -74.5% -9.0% -8.0% Total 22.9% 15.8% 14.6% 19.5% 20.4% Source: <strong>Berenberg</strong> estimates 109
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