Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank
Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank
Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank
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ASML Holding NV<br />
Technology Hardware<br />
Key risks<br />
1. EUV feasibility: If ASML and Cymer fail to improve EUV light power to the<br />
required 105-watt level before mid-2014, we believe its share price will be<br />
negatively affected.<br />
In our opinion, ASML/Cymer is the only player with the capability to deliver<br />
EUV tools with the required throughput level. The Cymer acquisition further<br />
increased the likelihood of ASML achieving the 105-watt target by mid-2014.<br />
Management retained its 105-watt light source power target in Q2 and<br />
indicated that it expected to achieve 80 watts by September/October 2013.<br />
2. <strong>Semiconductor</strong> spending pause: ASML’s future success depends on how<br />
aggressive chip-makers shrink and on demand for leading-edge chips. The<br />
consumer electronics devices market has been driving demand for smaller<br />
chips in the past few years, so any slowdown in this market will affect spend.<br />
In our opinion, the consumer electronics market is unlikely to slow down in<br />
next few years due to strong demand from developing countries; however, we<br />
do expect intensified competition. Intel, Samsung, Apple and fabless players<br />
are likely to use leading-edge chip technology as a differentiation factor.<br />
Therefore the chance of chip-makers pausing investment in leading technology<br />
is very low.<br />
3. Alternative technology: EUV is now seen as the most credible method to<br />
achieve further shrinkage; however, development of other technologies such as<br />
E Beam and DSA (directed self assembly) are still ongoing.<br />
In our opinion, alternative solutions like E BEAM, DSA are unlikely to replace<br />
EUV as the cost-effective solution for printing leading-edge node. E<br />
Beam/multi-beam is currently suffering significant throughput limitations. The<br />
throughput for a single machine is less than 1wph. DSA is a method of using<br />
block copolymer material to generate a repeatable pattern. As per Gartner data,<br />
DSA has the potential to significantly reduce lithography costs, as only single<br />
patterning is needed. It may potentially be used for 14nm, but the associated<br />
cost is prohibitive.<br />
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