Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank

Semiconductor Equipment
Technology Hardware
Figure 21: Samsung, Intel, TSMC and Globalfoundries capex versus total capex
$mn
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E2014E2015E2016E
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Source: Gartner data, Berenberg estimates
Samsung, Intel, TSMC, GF Capex
% of total semi capex
Figure 22: Foundry/logic shrinking roadmap
Foundry/Logic
H1 2010 H2 2010 H1 2011 H2 2011 H1 2012 H2 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E
TSMC
-40/65nm contribute 53% revenue in 2010,
-28nm started Q3 2011, 22% Q4 2012 rev
-28nm good yield in HKMG & Poly SiON at 2012 end,
-expand 28nm,
-28nm mature,
-20nm & 16nm FinFET risk - 20nm/16nm start
production,
volume production,
-20nm/16nm,
-10nm FInFET R&D.
Samsung
UMC
GF
Intel
-40nm
-65nm&finer eqv 35% rev, - 40nm eqv 10% above rev in Q4
-40nm eqv low single digit. 2011,
- 45nm,
-started 32nm at 2010 end.
-32nm
-32nm HKMG started in 2011,
-45/32nm supply constrain,
-32nm yileld improved,
-45nm/32nm
-22nm 3D, main node in 2013
-start 14nm end of 2013
-started 28nm started with good yield
in 2012 end,
-28nm both HKMG & Poly SiON
-28nm start, contribute low
-28nm&20nm,
-40nm contribute 15% revenue by 2012 esingle digit % by YE,
-14nm tape out.
mainly Poly SiON
-28nm started and
good yield at year
end,
-20nm
-start 14nmFinFET in 2013
-20nm,
-develop 14nm XM
-14nmXM
-14nm 3D
-20nm/14nm
-10nm FInFET R&D
-14nm FinFET risk
production start
-20nm/14nm,
-10nm FInFET R&D.
-10nm 3D,
-next 7nm and 5nm
Source: Company data, Berenberg estimates
The roadmap in Figure 22 above shows that all major foundry and logic players
plan to start production of 16/10nm in 2014/2015 after 20nm in 2013. From a
technology perspective, 20nm node and beyond are much more capital-intensive
than 28nm node due to the double/multiple patterning or the EUV required in
their manufacturing process.
Considering that Intel has historically re-used 80% of its tools for the next
technology node, and Samsung/TSMC could follow the same route as shrinkage
becomes more expensive, we forecast c3% growth in capex from 2013 to 2015. We
also expect 450mm investment to start taking place in 2016 with an 18% uptick in
capex.
20