Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank

Suess Microtec AG
Small/Mid-Cap: Technology Hardware
demand could amount to around seven new tools for 2014 and 2015 (one each for
the top three packaging houses ASE, Amkor and SPIL, one for IBM, one for
Toshiba/Sandisk, one for Hynix and one for TSMC), which is five more than our
current estimate for 2014 and 2015 combined. The maximum revenue upside is 9%
and 8% for 2014 and 2015 respectively, and operating profit upside is 42% and
18% respectively, as the bonder segment is likely to reach break even.
The bonder division has been loss-making in the past, and has wiped out half of
the group’s operating profit for the past three years. The company has indicated
that revenue of €30m-40m is required to break even. In our forecast, we expect the
division’s revenue to reach €29m by 2015, and the operating loss will narrow
significantly from €12m in 2012 to €5.4m, driven by higher revenue levels and
future cost savings from improved efficiency (€2m-€3m/year).
SUSS supplies wafer bonders, coater/developers, mask aligners and exposure
equipment used in the 3D integration process. It shares the market with EV Group
and has a leading market share in the temporary bonders market. If 3D bonding
gains traction with other IDMs over the next two years, and becomes one of the
mainstream solutions in 2016/2017, we may see the risk of other big front-end
players such as AMAT and TEL joining the market.
EUV photomask cleaning – potential upside
EUV equipment is currently viewed as the only credible path for shrinking chip
size without significantly increasing the cost. Currently, the mainstream chipmakers
use ArFi tools for manufacturing leading-edge chips. We expect EUV tools
to be shipped in volume in 2015/2016, with annual shipments of 24 and 50
respectively (see Figure 3 below).
Figure 3: EUV shipment ramp-up
Unit mn
250
Shipment by Technology
200
150
100
50
0
2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
I-Line KrF ArF Dry ArF Immersion EUV
Source: Company data, Berenberg estimates
Currently, photomasks are cleaned after 5,000 lithography exposures, but it is
unclear how regularly EUV photomasks should be cleaned. In our opinion, the
photomask division will at least maintain its current €20m-40m run-rate for the
foreseeable future, although a more frequent cleaning requirement – if decided –
would provide further upside.
SUSS holds a 100% share of the EUV photomask cleaning equipment market. The
market size is relatively small (currently €50m-60m), hence the big equipment
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