Semiconductor Equipment - Berenberg Bank

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ASML Holding NV Technology Hardware Financials P&L – EUV a future driver; foundry/logic orders solid ASML’s revenue is made up of tool revenue and software and service revenue. We model ASML’s revenue based on shipments of different types of tools. Figure 13: ASML tool revenue model 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Shipment units I-Line 20 15 15 12 8 8 KrF 87 78 52 50 32 28 ArF Dry 11 4 4 8 8 12 ArF Immersion 101 72 69 72 67 49 EUV 3 1 3 15 24 50 New 195 146 126 141 123 131 Refurbished 27 24 17 16 16 16 Total 222 170 143 157 139 147 ASPs (E m) I-Line 3 4 4 4 4 4 KrF 11 12 12 10 10 10 ArF Dry 20 22 23 23 23 23 ArF Immersion 35 38 42 45 45 45 EUV 39 42 70 81 96 100 Blended 22 22 27 33 42 53 New System (inc EUV) 24 25 30 36 47 59 Refurbished 4 8 5 6 6 6 Revenues by technology I-Line 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% KrF 19% 24% 16% 10% 6% 4% ArF Dry 5% 2% 2% 4% 3% 4% ArF Immersion 72% 71% 74% 62% 51% 28% EUV 2% 1% 5% 23% 39% 64% Revenues by technology I-Line 62 56 61 48 32 32 KrF 945 908 632 520 333 291 ArF Dry 221 86 92 184 184 276 ArF Immersion 3,540 2,710 2,875 3,238 3,015 2,202 EUV 116 42 210 1,210 2,300 5,000 New system sales 4,772 3,621 3,790 5,104 5,768 7,705 Refurbished sales 112 180 80 96 96 96 Total Eqpmt sales (E m) 4,884 3,802 3,870 5,200 5,864 7,801 Total equip sales (exl EUV) 4,768 3,760 3,660 3,990 3,564 2,801 Source: Company data, <strong>Berenberg</strong> estimates We expect EUV shipments to increase in volume in 2015 and 2016 after ramping up slowly in 2013 and 2014. We expect logic/foundry companies to gradually allocate more layers to EUV from ArFi as they gain more experience of it, and memory-makers to start adopting EUV after throughput improves over time. We estimate EUV will contribute the majority of ASML’s total tool revenue from 2016 onwards. In 2013 and 2014, we expect ArFi tools to contribute the majority of ASML’s total revenue and unit shipment. The adoption of the DP process by logic/foundry players in 20nm node will drive solid demand for ArFi tools in 2013 and 2014. Starting in H2 2014, the demand of ArFi is likely to decrease as the onset of EUV reduces demand for DP. From this point, ArFi tools will then only be used for non-critical layers. 42
ASML Holding NV Technology Hardware Figure 14: ASML tool revenue/shipment by technology EUR mn 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Revenue by Technology 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E I-Line KrF ArF Dry ArF Immersion EUV Unit mn 250 Shipment by Technology 200 150 100 50 0 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E I-Line KrF ArF Dry ArF Immersion EUV Source: Company data, <strong>Berenberg</strong> estimates The main contributor to orders and revenue has shifted to the foundry/logic segment from memory since 2010. Foundry accounted for 45% of ASML’s order book and 60% of its revenue in 2012. We expect the trend to continue until memory investment recovers. Memory players Micron and SK Hynix have both indicated that they have only made conservative capacity additions apart from their node migration. Demand from the foundry/logic segment however is likely to remain solid, driven by strong growth in the consumer electronics market and increasing competition between Intel, Samsung, TSMC and others. 43
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